AHC: Argentina as Wealthy as Canada

[Delta Force]

After World War II Argentina had one of the highest GDPs, per capita incomes, and infrastructure levels in the world. However, due to poor use of government surplus funds the economic struggled in the 1950s. While likely recoverable, it lead to the overthrow of Juan Peron and decades of coups, civil war, and instability, eventually leading to the Falklands War. According to some sources Argentina now has the lowest per capita GDP of the South American ABC nations. While other South American nations went through periods of turmoil during and after the Cold War, Argentina is the only one to have gone through a constant cycle of stagnation and massive recession. How could Argentina become a more wealthy nation, perhaps on par with Canada in terms of total GDP?

 

[Opunium]

Peron stays in power? That wouldnt be that hard to achieve would it?

 

[mrmandias]

After World War II Argentina had one of the highest GDPs, per capita incomes, and infrastructure levels in the world. However, due to poor use of government surplus funds the economic struggled in the 1950s. While likely recoverable, it lead to the overthrow of Juan Peron and decades of coups, civil war, and instability, eventually leading to the Falklands War. According to some sources Argentina now has the lowest per capita GDP of the South American ABC nations. While other South American nations went through periods of turmoil during and after the Cold War, Argentina is the only one to have gone through a constant cycle of stagnation and massive recession. How could Argentina become a more wealthy nation, perhaps on par with Canada in terms of total GDP?

I think the root of Argentina's problem was WWI. As a largely agricultural country, Argentina's economy mostly boomed during the war and crashed soon thereafter and the resulting political instability Argentina has never recovered from.

 

[Heisenberg]

Argentina's agriculture-based economy crashed in 1929 with everyone else, as suddenly Europe wasn't buying their beef anymore. This lead to the overthrown of President Yrigoyen, the Infamous Decade, and the Peron government.

Perhaps if, before the Depression, the Argentine government encouraged industry (but not through ISI), they wouldn't feel the pain so hard from the collapse of the agriculture export market due to their more diverse economy. That could be enough to butterfly Yrigoyen's overthrow. If Argentina kept chugging along with a fairly stable democracy, that's one half of the equation.

The problem with the industrial sector being Argentina's saviour is that international imports and exports of manufactured goods dried up as well, as everyone tried to protect their domestic industries. I don't know how to avert all that, but if Argentina's industry can hold on until the start of the war, they can make themselves rich again through supplying the Allied war effort, like Canada and the US had, but staying out of the actual fighting as I doubt the civilian government would bring Argentina into the war.

If they can remain stable and prosperous through the Cold War, then they could easily be in the trillion dollar club today.

OTL GDP figures, for the curious:

Canada: $1.844 trillion (per capita: $52,364)
Argentina: $474.9 billion (per capita: $11,576)

 

[DevonPasty]

If Argentina remains stable it might be able to acquire the Falklands from Britain.

I believe the idea of selling the Falklands back was being toyed with but after the Falklands War that idea was forever shelved. If you can butterfly aggression over the Falklands, even if they don't have brilliant terms with the British, you can probably see a deal struck over them.

Again, depends on them having the money for it though.

 

[Dan1988]

Perhaps if, before the Depression, the Argentine government encouraged industry (but not through ISI), they wouldn't feel the pain so hard from the collapse of the agriculture export market due to their more diverse economy.

ISI more or less has to be the only Argentina has to industrialize, but of course there are multiple ways towards ISI. The problem with industrialization is that most people were content with imports from Britain, and the landed classes worked hard to prevent much industrialization from occurring that did not benefit them (i.e. meat-packing). A forward-thinking administration who does both ISI and encourages people to start saving their money would be a start. But yeah, the big thing here is avoiding the overthrow of Yrigoyen.

 

[Cook]

If Argentina remains stable it might be able to acquire the Falklands from Britain.

I believe the idea of selling the Falklands back was being toyed with but after the Falklands War that idea was forever shelved. If you can butterfly aggression over the Falklands, even if they don't have brilliant terms with the British, you can probably see a deal struck over them.

Again, depends on them having the money for it though.

The proposal was a leaseback arrangement; Britain would relinquish sovereignty of the islands to Argentina in return for a long term (99 year) lease of them. It would not have required any finances on the Argentine side since it would have been the British paying them for the lease, but neither would it have delivered a significant dividend to the Argentines; at the time the leaseback was proposed, the islands were hardly making a profit, although there has been a substantial improvement in the islands economy as a result of significant investment, by 2010 the islands GDP was still barely US$160 million – so any lease payments are going to be insignificant on a national level.

 

[juanml82]

In par with Canada? I'd say it's likely impossible. Canada benefits from her southern neighbor in ways no South American country can.

I don't think Yrigoyen's economic performance can be significantly improved by 1930 - the 1929 crisis is going to hit. What can happen is for enough generals to oppose the coup, though. If the coup doesn't happen and loyalist officers can occupy most posts of importance in the higher echelons of the armed forces, then the 20th centuries coups might be butterflied away.

That, in itself, would likely butterfly Peronism, since Juan Peron isn't likely to find himself in a position of relative power by the 1940s. Some ATL government, however, needs to compromise to work out the labor and social issues. Without Peronism, we could see less corporativism, but not necessarily less populism or buddy capitalism. It might result in far less State support for non profitable sectors.
I think, in the long run, a constitutional amendment adding revocatory referendums might be required. Without the military kind of getting used to coup governments, no peronist-antiperonist dichotomy, and a legal way to oust, or threaten to oust, governments which aren't handling the economy properly, things ought to work better. Worldwide crisis like the '29 crisis or the '73 crisis are still going to hit hard, of course.

But, overall, I think no WWII and a multipolar, if instable, world during the second half of the 20th century might offer the most opportunities for second tier countries to grow.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

See also
AHC: Swap the economic/political fates of Australia and Argentina
Rush Tarquin

AHC: A developed Argentina at the end of 20th. Century
Joseph Solis in Australia

top two means to achieve a better-off Argentina (

1 2 3 4 5)
yofie

in the other forum
Latin America wank
VictorVanBakker

Challenge: Make Argentina a great power by 2012
Pando

Challenge: Argentina as a superpower (

1 2)
Zuvarq


possibly
How can we make South America stronger? (

1 2)
Delvestius
AHC: A Spanish "Canada" on an American continent
raharris1973



South America development(or lack thereof) into a superpower (

1 2 3 4 5)
Truth

 

[Delta Force]

In par with Canada? I'd say it's likely impossible. Canada benefits from her southern neighbor in ways no South American country can.

I should have specified that I meant total GDP on par with Canada, not necessarily per capita income and/or living standards. That would be pretty difficult to achieve now that Canada has actually surpassed the United States in GDP per capita by some measures. In nominal terms that would give a GDP per capita on par with Japan (Canada and Japan both have higher nominal GDPs per capita than PPP, Argentina has lower GDP per capita than PPP), while in PPP terms that would give a GDP per capita on par with Japan, the UK, and France and $3,000 per capita above the EU average.