AHC: Another dynasty takes over Ottoman Empire

Is it possible for another noble family to somehow take over the Ottoman Empire and claim the Caliphate? I'm thinking some time post 1770 when the House was seen as failing. The rebels could claim God was punishing them from straying from the true path. Perhaps an Arab dynasty could claim the throne with a promise to restore Islam.

How could this happen? Which families would be the most likely to take over?
 
I've seen the Giray dynasty of the Crimea Khanate suggested when questions similar to yours were asked in the past.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giray_dynasty#During_Ottoman_Suzerainty
Wikipedia contains the only actual source that I've found that confirms the idea that the Girays were a realistic candidate for a post-Ottoman Ottoman Empire.

Shahin Giray could be the man that replaces the Ottomans
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Şahin_Giray

The article contains references to Catherine the Great praising Shahin, and of the Ottomans executing him for fear that he could challenge the throne.

Now, Catherine's approval of Shahin is probably overstated, as is the Ottoman paranoia about him. Not to mention, the Wikipedia article cites only 1 source.

But let's assume that Catherine is seriously willing to work with Shahin, and the Ottoman fears about him are actually justified. Might Catherine or a successor be willing to work with Shahin to make him a Russia candidate for the throne?

Shahin, apparently, tried to "modernize" the Crimea Khanate before its annexation. He'd also studies in Greece and Venice, so he knew about the situation in Europe. Could he sell himself as a modernist candidate, attracting the elements within the Ottoman Empire that felt that reform and a limited degree of Westernization were needed?

Of course all of this is based on one Wikipedia article, more research really is needed.
 
I remember reading somewhere that the rebel Osman Pazvantoglu had plans to replace the Ottoman dynasty with a Sultan from the Crimean Girays, who would have been his puppet.

Maybe that could go somewhere - Pazvantoglu was extremely powerful in some periods. However, I doubt that it could go somewhere with Shahin. Shahin's modernizing ways were distrusted by the Ottoman ruling classes; and they were especially distrusted and hated by Pazvantoglu and the other conservative rebels and local strongmen. Perhaps it would have been a different member of the Giray dynasty.
 
Ali Pasha of Ioannina is another choice as an alternative for the Ottomans. He was a semi-independent Albanian despot who had successfully expanded his realm to most of Albania, western Greece and the Morea. He could assemble an army of fifty thousand troops within a few days and could double it in a few weeks. He had a mixed reputation with the Greeks, having crushed previous attempts at independence by anti-Ottoman rebels but promoting Greek culture and language in his realm (as well as having Greek advisors in his inner circle). Ali Pasha provided sanctuary to Bektashi missionaries and the Orthodox. He had connections with the Janissaries and was briefly an ally of Napoleon's before switching to the British. He wanted to turn his lands into a Meditterranean sea power; what would stop him from switching towards marching to Constantinople and replacing the Ottomans with the Tepedelenli dynasty.

A Tepedelenli-run Turkish Empire would likely lead it towards accommodating the Greeks, with his emphasis on Greek cultural revival and perhaps assimilation to a Greek culture. (Imagine a Hellenized Muslim empire?) The Empire would no doubt be an ally of the British and/or French while remaining opposed to further Russian moves against its lands. It's likely that in the chaos, the Tepedelenli Empire would be restricted to the Balkans, Anatolia and the Aegean islands while the rest declares independence and goes its own way. Things would be interesting religious-wise if Ali Pasha promotes heterodox Islamic sects such as Bektashism as opposed to Sunni Islam. It's holds Shiite concepts, such as revering Ali and the twelve Imams and even celebrates the pre-Islamic holiday of Nowruz. The Bektashi Order was influential in converting as many locals to Islam especially the Albanians and Greeks. We might have the Empire succeed in where the Ottomans failed - converting the Balkans to Islam.
 
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It's interesting that everyone here has suggested families of non-Arab background, despite Arabs being the bulk of the empire. Are there any Arab candidates? Who were the most senior noble families in places like Syria and Mesopotamia?

How would a take-over actually happen? If there was a coup attempt, would it end up with half of the empire declaring independence? How could an upstart dynasty rise an army to crush revolts? Would the Ottoman bureaucracy largely accept a coup from a popular group as a fait accompli, or would they endlessly resist it?
 
It's interesting that everyone here has suggested families of non-Arab background, despite Arabs being the bulk of the empire.
So far it's all either Balkan families or the Girays. For the former, it's because the Arabs had little of a presence in the high echelons of the empire, unlike Balkan peoples (correspondingly, the Arab lands especially outside Syria were governed much more loosely than the Balkans or Anatolia). Arabs being important central bureaucrats was a rare occurrence; Arab Receb Pasha, a commander-in-chief during the Great Turkish War, was one of the few who rose so high, and even he was prejudiced against. The users mentioning the Girays are doing so because many Ottoman statesmen believed the Girays to be a legitimate alternative to the House of Osman, since the Crimeans were by far the most important vassal of Istanbul, not only militarily with their light cavalry but in terms of legitimacy emanating from the Giray descent from Genghis Khan. But your timeframe makes it very unlikely, bordering on impossible, for the Girays to take the Ottoman throne; the Treaty of Kucuk Kaynarca when the Crimeans gained "independence" from Istanbul is in 1774.

Who were the most senior noble families in places like Syria and Mesopotamia?
In Egypt in 1770 the power broker was Ali Bey Bulut Kapan, who was a Georgian mamluk and not Arab as you wanted. He's not too different from Muhammad Ali Pasha, really; Ali Bey also attempted to create a virtually independent domain centered in Egypt, going so far as to ally with Russia and invade Syria (the Ottomans had to bribe his general to withdraw from Damascus, and the said general then overthrew Ali Bey and seized Egypt). Ali Bey himself was a mamluk of the most powerful family in Egypt, the Kazdaglis, who were unfortunately for our purposes Turkish or Greek in origin and not Arab.

In Syria, all the governors of Damascus between 1725 and 1783 belonged to the al-Azm family, an ancient Sunni Arab lineage who served the rulers of Syria since before the Ottomans (a member of the family was actually Prime Minister of Syria as late as 1963). But they were never seriously a threat, as their legitimacy was dependent on Istanbul's patronage as governors of Damascus, and the Ottomans more than often saw them as proxies enabling the government to continue to exert influence in Syria. Aleppo was virtually ruled by Janissaries. Other powerful Syrian families included the Ma'n and Shihab in Lebanon. Palestine was dominated by the Zaydanis until the government dismantled their realm in 1775. None of them had the resources necessary to become ruler of the entire empire, and with the exception of the Azms (who were viewed as central Ottoman elites and local Syrian elites at the same time) few of them had important connections in Istanbul.

Iraq was ruled by a mamluk dynasty for most of the 18th century, but I don't know much about them. They weren't Arab anyways.
 
In Syria, all the governors of Damascus between 1725 and 1783 belonged to the al-Azm family, an ancient Sunni Arab lineage who served the rulers of Syria since before the Ottomans (a member of the family was actually Prime Minister of Syria as late as 1963). But they were never seriously a threat, as their legitimacy was dependent on Istanbul's patronage as governors of Damascus, and the Ottomans more than often saw them as proxies enabling the government to continue to exert influence in Syria. Aleppo was virtually ruled by Janissaries. Other powerful Syrian families included the Ma'n and Shihab in Lebanon. Palestine was dominated by the Zaydanis until the government dismantled their realm in 1775. None of them had the resources necessary to become ruler of the entire empire, and with the exception of the Azms (who were viewed as central Ottoman elites and local Syrian elites at the same time) few of them had important connections in Istanbul.

Iraq was ruled by a mamluk dynasty for most of the 18th century, but I don't know much about them. They weren't Arab anyways.

Fantastic information. I'd independently found the al-Azm family, who seem ideal for my setup. I'm wondering about a French Revolution-less world, where Austria and Russia's war in the last 1780s is not distracted and continues all the way to Constantinople. If the Queen of Cities falls, I imagine the House of Osman would have its authority teetering on the edge. Is it plausible that the Al-Azms could use their local power base to take over much of Syria, perhaps in alliance with the Janissaries? That could then be a base for them to take over the broader empire in the 1820s or so.
 

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Ali Pasha of Ioannina is another choice as an alternative for the Ottomans. He was a semi-independent Albanian despot who had successfully expanded his realm to most of Albania, western Greece and the Morea. He could assemble an army of fifty thousand troops within a few days and could double it in a few weeks. He had a mixed reputation with the Greeks, having crushed previous attempts at independence by anti-Ottoman rebels but promoting Greek culture and language in his realm (as well as having Greek advisors in his inner circle). Ali Pasha provided sanctuary to Bektashi missionaries and the Orthodox. He had connections with the Janissaries and was briefly an ally of Napoleon's before switching to the British. He wanted to turn his lands into a Meditterranean sea power; what would stop him from switching towards marching to Constantinople and replacing the Ottomans with the Tepedelenli dynasty.

A Tepedelenli-run Turkish Empire would likely lead it towards accommodating the Greeks, with his emphasis on Greek cultural revival and perhaps assimilation to a Greek culture. (Imagine a Hellenized Muslim empire?) The Empire would no doubt be an ally of the British and/or French while remaining opposed to further Russian moves against its lands. It's likely that in the chaos, the Tepedelenli Empire would be restricted to the Balkans, Anatolia and the Aegean islands while the rest declares independence and goes its own way. Things would be interesting religious-wise if Ali Pasha promotes heterodox Islamic sects such as Bektashism as opposed to Sunni Islam. It's holds Shiite concepts, such as revering Ali and the twelve Imams and even celebrates the pre-Islamic holiday of Nowruz. The Bektashi Order was influential in converting as many locals to Islam especially the Albanians and Greeks. We might have the Empire succeed in where the Ottomans failed - converting the Balkans to Islam.

Quick question what time period are aiming at? I assume it is before the Greek War of Indepence or the Serbian Revolt.
 
I'm just wondering if Giray might not be viewed with too much resentment (unless maybe he marries Josèphine's cousin, the Valide Sultana (if it were possible) or Abdulhamid I's daughter Esma, after seizing power) in Constantinople. Europe and those who had benefited under Ottoman rule would see him as too Russian if Ekaterina says jump and he asks how high. Of course, reform always brings resentment, so maybe he can dial that back some, prove himself by making war on Russia (after Ekaterina's death perhaps).

Of course, if Abdulhamid leaves no sons of age, plus no surviving brothers/nephews/cousins/whatever, then AFAIK Ottoman law stated that the Girays were to succeed. So, let Sahin take over as Regent in said scenario, and he plays a Turkish Richard III, while marrying Esma (or to his son if he has one)).

The first move, I think, in any dynastic takeover - either get the Janissaries on side before you take the throne. And after you take the throne, destroy them, to prevent the same thing that they did to your predecessor happening to you.

http://ru.rodovid.org/wk/Запись:656806
 
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