AHC and WI: The Estates-Generale had one vote per estate

As a challenge, this doesn't seem too hard to achieve. The easiest option would be for the King not to promise double numerical representation early on. Thus the Third Estate would not push for unicameralism as it would have nothing to gain by it.

Does anyone know why the King had this give-away of double representation in the first place? It seems like radicalism was not a force yet, and he was still firmly in control...

I'm also interested in the WI side of this. If they had to get a vote from one of the other estates, what things would pass and what would not? It seems likely that the First Estate would be the closest ally to the Third, but that would probably mean avoiding offending the church. Which two Estates would gang up on the other? Could a situation to the financial crisis be found, even if only short term?
 
First and second screw over the third estate, as per OTL. The third esatate breaks away and forms their own government, as per OTL. Louis XVI is forced to recognise a constitutional monarchy or be set upon by a lynch mob, as per OTL. Not much changes.
 
First and second screw over the third estate, as per OTL. The third esatate breaks away and forms their own government, as per OTL. Louis XVI is forced to recognise a constitutional monarchy or be set upon by a lynch mob, as per OTL. Not much changes.

Is this really the case? The lower levels of the First Estate seemed to be pretty sympathetic with the Third - it's possible the pragmatics in the Third Estate seize the initiative and try to work with what they have (having not had their hopes up for dominating the assembly to start with).
 

Vitruvius

Donor
I tend to agree with Lost the Game. Things may not change that much if the Estates Generale meets without double rep for the third Estate. The Third Estate wouldn't be willing to be steamrolled by the other two. And while it had allies in the First and Second they were in the minority there and wouldn't have the power to win over those estates. So a vote is 2-1 against the Third. So the Third probably breaks away in protest, maybe even before a vote, and events follow roughly OTL.

I think its still in the best interests of the Third Estate to push for a unicameral vote, even without double representation. That way they could actually form a single block with their allies in the First and Second and maybe eek out a slim 51% majority and carry the day in favor of reforms. So its possible if the King concedes on that point (less fear of what would happen without a double sized third estate) then the Assembly that formed OTL would instead become a moderate-liberal voting bloc within the Estates-Generale.

On the other hand I think there's still a great chance that things spiral out of control. After the first vote, if the moderate-liberal coalition wins or comes close to winning there will be a lot of pressure on the King to prorogue the Estates somehow. So we could still see a Tennis court oath situation. So again events like OTL.

The real problem is the King is reacting to events and is not leading. Any concession he makes is essentially forced and he's not smart or willing enough to seize an opportunity when it presents itself. Thus, for example, if there is a unicameral vote and the Third Estate allies with moderates and liberals in the other two Estates to get reforms through it's likely to be a much more moderate package that what the National Assembly produced OTL, a consequence of the fact that the Third Estate is having to lobby the other two very hard and negotiate for support so the the deal they broker isn't likely to be as radical. Nevertheless I think the reaction from the King, and importantly those around him like the Comte d'Artois, would be automatically negative. Reforms generated by the Third Estate just aren't likely to be looked upon favorably from the King. Hence a return to OTL events pretty quickly as the King attempts to quash those initiatives and clumsily dictate the agenda himself.
 
Thus, for example, if there is a unicameral vote and the Third Estate allies with moderates and liberals in the other two Estates to get reforms through it's likely to be a much more moderate package that what the National Assembly produced OTL, a consequence of the fact that the Third Estate is having to lobby the other two very hard and negotiate for support so the the deal they broker isn't likely to be as radical.

You're pretty persuasive Vitruvius, but I'm intrigued to know what this moderate package looks like before things get out of control, and which power brokers would come to the fore. Would they push for, say, a Bill of Rights rather than a Constitution? Would they espouse more piety and marginalise the anticlericals if they're seeking allies in the First Estate? Any other thoughts?
 
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