AHC and WI: Russo-German Alliance in 19th Century

The idea is straight forward enough -- with a PoD no earlier than the Treaty of Frankfurt (1871) (or, at the very least, no earlier than 1867), how do Germany and Russia remain allies until the 20th Century?

Now yes, I do realize threads like this have been done before -- however, I noticed they tended to jump ahead straight to WWI, which for some reason always happens around the same time as OTL.

What I want to know in this thread is, first, how do Germany and Russia remain allies? Is it more plausible League of Three Emperors endure, or for a dual alliance between Russia and Germany to emerge? How does Austria-Hungary fare? And are there hurdles in the nations' respective domestic politics that need to be overcome (e.g. for certain Tsars or Emperors to be replaced)?

Second, how does this shift effect European politics in the 19th Century*? Again, what becomes of Austria? Of the Balklands? Of the Ottoman Empire? And how does the rest of Europe react?

(As a side note, I'm thinking this could have overlap with this idea...)

*which in turn can affect how a European war breaks out in the first place
 
If the Alliance of Three Emperors survives longer than it did after Lowenwolde's Treaty, Germany focuses west instead of worrying about an industrializing Russia, and Austria focuses on Italy instead of Germany or the Balkans, they would probably be the best of friends and the strongest alliance the world has seen.

If and when WWI comes around, The Three Black Eagles will steamroll the world.

Also, if Germany and Russia are bffs or at least friendly and allied, I can see this either butterflying the Russian Revolution(s) or preventing it as Germany would definitely want to keep the whites in power. Maybe a German on the Russian throne related to both the Hohenzollern's and the Romanov's?
 
The three-emperor's league fell apart with a reason. The interests of AH and Russia in the Balkans are mutually exclusive. IOTL, Germany opted for AH, although the Russians were interested, as proved by that secret treaty. It shouldn't be a problem for Germany to opt for an alliance with the Russians.

Problems occur lateron: at the beginning, Germany will be economically and technologically leading. But with time passing by and heavy German investment in Russia, Germany will gradually become the junior partner of such an alliance. I'd say that in an early WWI, the Germans will end their alliance with the Russians in the aftermath.

For the general alliance system: all those with interests in AH territories will join Germany-Russia, that is Italy, Montenegro, Serbia and Romania.

On the other side, France will be an adversary, and Britain too.
 
At this point, I tend to agree with Monty Burns.

I also want to reiterate that I'm only looking at butterflies in the 19th Century here -- so, for example, if Austria is surrounded by enemies by, say, 1880, where does that put them by 1900?

I imagine the Balkland states will get lots of support -- how does this affect the Ottoman Empire, in particular their remaining Balkland claims?
 
The idea is straight forward enough -- with a PoD no earlier than the Treaty of Frankfurt (1871) (or, at the very least, no earlier than 1867), how do Germany and Russia remain allies until the 20th Century?

Now yes, I do realize threads like this have been done before -- however, I noticed they tended to jump ahead straight to WWI, which for some reason always happens around the same time as OTL.

What I want to know in this thread is, first, how do Germany and Russia remain allies? Is it more plausible League of Three Emperors endure, or for a dual alliance between Russia and Germany to emerge? How does Austria-Hungary fare? And are there hurdles in the nations' respective domestic politics that need to be overcome (e.g. for certain Tsars or Emperors to be replaced)?

Second, how does this shift effect European politics in the 19th Century*? Again, what becomes of Austria? Of the Balklands? Of the Ottoman Empire? And how does the rest of Europe react?

(As a side note, I'm thinking this could have overlap with this idea...)

*which in turn can affect how a European war breaks out in the first place

One way is to have Germany support Russian interest more during the Congress of Berlin in 1878 instead of trying to hold together an alliance in which two members have mutually exclusive interests in the Balkans. He only needs the epiphany that the Three Emperor's League won't last and then choose Russia over Austria-Hungary.

Russia gets a better deal, but eventually still feels short-changed by Britain, France and Austria-Hungary. Russia threatens war, but their bluff is called since they are exhausted from the war and Germany doesn't feel liking denuding their western border an inciting French aggression for the Balkans and so the two back down. Both are pissed that Austria-Hungary was more supportive of the French-British-Ottoman alliance then the position of Russia and didn't support war. Conversely, Austria-Hungary will be pissed that Bismarck supported the interests of St. Petersburg rather than those of Vienna.

The alliance breaks down in 1879. Russia, realizing Germany is the only friendly power to turn to, form a dual alliance with them. In the early 1880s Italy is easily convinced into joining the alliance since both of its competitors (France and A-H) are enemies. Romania and Serbia are probably easily convinced into joining too since they want chunks of A-H. Bulgaria will therefore be in the other camp which means Greece will join with the dual alliance.

Eventually we should get something like this:

Germany, Italy, Russia, Serbia, Romania, Greece vs. France, Austria-Hungary, Great Britain, Bulgaria, the Ottoman Empire (and perhaps Japan).

Ironically, Austria-Hungary will be the nicest member of TTL's Entente since they're surrounded and will try to avoid war. France will be in a pickle too since they'll have to fight a two front war against Germany and Italy, the latter of which will likely try to get military advisors from the Germans and reform their armed forces to an effective military force which will actually be useful in the enormous Cannae style crushing of France I'm envisioning :D.
 
Ironically, Austria-Hungary will be the nicest member of TTL's Entente since they're surrounded and will try to avoid war. France will be in a pickle too since they'll have to fight a two front war against Germany and Italy, the latter of which will likely try to get military advisors from the Germans and reform their armed forces to an effective military force which will actually be useful in the enormous Cannae style crushing of France I'm envisioning

OK -- so starting around 1880, Austria will be on edge, and Italy will start getting a lot of military support from Germany, modernizing its military, which will put France on more edge.

How does this play out in the 1880's and 1890's? Will nationalists in Austria-Hungary tear at the empire from within? Will the Balklands become even more unstable? How do the Ottomans respond? And, once France is on greater edge, how do they react? (And again, all prior to 1900)
 
OK -- so starting around 1880, Austria will be on edge, and Italy will start getting a lot of military support from Germany, modernizing its military, which will put France on more edge.

How does this play out in the 1880's and 1890's? Will nationalists in Austria-Hungary tear at the empire from within? Will the Balklands become even more unstable? How do the Ottomans respond? And, once France is on greater edge, how do they react? (And again, all prior to 1900)

Well, I suppose Germany will start massively supporting pan-German nationalist parties which will want to establish a Greater Germany without the Slavic parts of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Serbia will obviously support the South Slavic Serbs, Croats, Bosnians etc. while Romania will support Romanian separatism in Transylvania. The Austro-Hungarian Empire will be highly unstable although Anglo-French investment will help them to industrialize faster. I think there will be a new Ausgleich with the Czechs which will make the country a Triple Monarchy although instability will still wrack them.*

The Balkans will be very polarized with Serbia, Greece and Romania opposing Bulgaria and the Ottomans. I think some kind of border conflict between Bulgaria and either Greece or Serbia over Macedonia/Thrace could cause TTL's WW I.

As for France, it's edginess and fear over impending destruction might slip it into authoritarianism, reactionary Catholicism, statism, monarchism etc. Perhaps we could have a successful Boulanger coup which restores the Orléans dynasty as the Kings of the French and creates some militaristic, counterrevolutionary regime with a nasty anti-German crusading mentality.

The Ottoman Empire will try to reform and France and Britain are likely going to waver between propping up the Sublime Porte and making their own plans for partition which will involve their own Balkan proxy Bulgaria. The Ottomans will cling onto Britain and France for fear of Russia, but won't be an effective ally IMHO, especially once Austria-Hungary collapses due to WW I or internal strife which would force the Ottomans to fight in the Balkans and the Caucasus.

*edit: I think Hungary would accept another Ausgleich which would limit its powers, but also prevent it from becoming a Russo-German puppet.
 
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The idea is straight forward enough -- with a PoD no earlier than the Treaty of Frankfurt (1871) (or, at the very least, no earlier than 1867), how do Germany and Russia remain allies until the 20th Century?

They don't. You run into the same balance of power issues as an Anglo-German alliance.
 
Once Italy joins on to the Russo-German alliance, I can see AH panicking and trying to ally with the Ottomans. The Ottomans are going to be nervous about a rapidly industrializing Russia as well, and will probably accept. What kinds of effects this could have on the Balkans, I don't know. Maybe more of the Balkans are uneasy protectorates of the Austrians/Ottomans, with significant Russian efforts to dislodge them? Sounds even more unstable than OTL, so WWI would probably break out earlier.

WWI is almost certainly going to break out earlier, since Britain had significant issues with Russia in the late 1800s/early 1900s. If there is any significant German naval buildup, Britain is going to be very bervous.

Also, Italy might go for Libya earlier if they are confident that Russia/Germany will support them if France or Britain intervene. Maybe Germany tries to take bits of the Ottomans, with Russian support? Maybe Syria, or Iraq? This could be a good spark for *WWI.
 
I'm kind of partial to a WW breaking out in the 1900's, myself, with Japan getting in on the action ;)

And I'd say I'm getting a pretty good idea here on how it could break out...
 
One more thing that came to mind...

Onkel Willie said:
Well, I suppose Germany will start massively supporting pan-German nationalist parties which will want to establish a Greater Germany without the Slavic parts of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Serbia will obviously support the South Slavic Serbs, Croats, Bosnians etc. while Romania will support Romanian separatism in Transylvania. The Austro-Hungarian Empire will be highly unstable although Anglo-French investment will help them to industrialize faster. I think there will be a new Ausgleich with the Czechs which will make the country a Triple Monarchy although instability will still wrack them.

An idea that struck me -- if Austria is under this kind of pressure, could the Hapsburgs even keep a solid hold on their own empire? Could we something like a military coup, akin to the Young Turks Revolution?
 
As for France, it's edginess and fear over impending destruction might slip it into authoritarianism, reactionary Catholicism, statism, monarchism etc. Perhaps we could have a successful Boulanger coup which restores the Orléans dynasty as the Kings of the French and creates some militaristic, counterrevolutionary regime with a nasty anti-German crusading mentality.
I think France in this situation, facing Germany and Russia, would be highly anti-monarchist, and probably anti-clericalist as well.
 
I think France in this situation, facing Germany and Russia, would be highly anti-monarchist, and probably anti-clericalist as well.

It could do that too. I do feel that some sort of nationalist regime will pop up, monarchist or not, which will end the Third Republic. I'm not sure on the anti-clericalism since Germany has nothing to do with the church considering its leadership is primarily Protestant and Russia is majority Russian Orthodox. IMO a nationalist, Catholic, anti-Protestant regime with slight xenophobic and anti-Semitic tinges might pop up. I could see such a regime using their own "stab in the back" myth to blame communism and socialism for the defeat in the Franco-Prussian War. As for monarchism, a monarch could be viewed as a rallying point and strong leader. The Bourbons could be of use since they ruled France during a (perceived) high point in their history around Louis XIV reign.
 

Maur

Banned
The three-emperor's league fell apart with a reason. The interests of AH and Russia in the Balkans are mutually exclusive. IOTL, Germany opted for AH, although the Russians were interested, as proved by that secret treaty. It shouldn't be a problem for Germany to opt for an alliance with the Russians.

Problems occur lateron: at the beginning, Germany will be economically and technologically leading. But with time passing by and heavy German investment in Russia, Germany will gradually become the junior partner of such an alliance. I'd say that in an early WWI, the Germans will end their alliance with the Russians in the aftermath.

For the general alliance system: all those with interests in AH territories will join Germany-Russia, that is Italy, Montenegro, Serbia and Romania.

On the other side, France will be an adversary, and Britain too.
This. Let AH collapse or something, and you delete the biggest obstacle to OP challenge. (unless that ends with Germany competes with Russia directly in the Balkans. Well, such is life...)
 
I'm with Sam - you're not going to get an alliance per se, but you can get a very spiffy non-aggression pact up through *WWI, a co-belligerent treaty in which Russia gets to reclaim Constantinople and take the Ottoman Empire apart unmolested, and Germany gets to curbstomp France and Italy. Then the big postwar question becomes, who breaks the pact first? And when they do, how bad does it get and how fast? It won't take much at all for *WWII to be horrific.

Great Britain probably sits on the sidelines and fucks with Russia and Germany in every way that doesn't put British lives at risk - blockading Germany at sea, making a lot of unsecured loans to the French and propping up the Ottomans for as long as possible. It won't influence the outcome, but it'll make getting there uglier and longer.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Edit: oh, well, just noticed that my PoD falls one year just short of OP guidelines. Sorry. I however suppose that with some adjustment, the general idea of Aistria, Italy, Russia, and Turkey joining the fun in 1870-71 may still yield the desired scenario nicely.

Besides the Berlin Congress PoD which Onkel so masterfully developed, there is another handy PoD (a variant of this TL) for this alliance, that is an expansion of the the Franco-Prussian War to Austria, Italy, and Russia, with this conflict and the Russo-Turkish War getting wrapped into one.

It goes this way:

Some changes in the Italian high command ensure that Italy reaps decisive victories in the battles of Custoza and Lissa. Faced with a two-front defeat, Austria is forced to ask for a beggar's peace. Italy asks for all of its irredentist claims (Venetia, Trentino, Istria, Dalmatia), which prompts the Prussian King and generals to expand Prussian war claims and include Saxony and Bohemia-Moravia, overruling Bismarck. Alarmed at the size of Prussian-Italian success, Napoleon III switches to a pro-Austrian diplomatic stance and threatens an intervention if the demands of Berlin and Florence are not scaled down. Unwilling to risk a two-front war, Prussia and Italy comply with French demands. Final peace treaty gives Trentino (not South Tyrol) and Gorizia-Gradisca to Italy, Saxony and German-majority districts of Bohemia-Moravia (modern Sudetenland) to Prussia, in addition to OTL gains.

Austria is thrown by the defeat into severe instability, but the timely reform of the empire to an Austro-Hungarian real union, with the grant of autonomy to Czechia and Croatia within the two subunits, and the union of Croatia and Dalmatia, stabilize the Danubian monarchy somewhat. Tensions between France and the Prussian-Italian alliance grow and Austria, eager to secure protection, makes an alliance with France. Bismarck counters this by making a secret pact with Russia, which guarantees Russian support against Austria in exchange for Prussian support to Russian expansion in the Balkans.

Within a few years, France declares war to Prussia and Italy about any or all of several possible casus belli (Luxemburg, Rome, Spanish succession). French aggression unleashes a wave of German nationalist sentiment in the southern German states, which side with Prussia. It also happens in Austria, but Franz Joseph is able to quash Pan-German agitation with the support of the Magyars, Czech, and Croats, so Austria joins the war. True to its pact with Prussia, Russia intervenes.

The war leads to a defeat of France and Austria, and the formation of the German Empire. True to their word, Germany and Italy support Russian expansion in the Balkans, and Russia, soon joined by Greece, Serbia, and Romania, expands the conflict to the Ottoman Empire, with a defeat of the latter. Alarmed by Russian expansion, Britain threatens an intervention, and the German-Russian-Italian alliance, militarly overextended and financially exhausted, accepts a compromise peace.

In the following peace conference, Germany annexes Alsace-Lorraine, Bohemia-Moravia, and Tyrol, Italy annexes Nice, Savoy, Corsica, and Istria, Russia annexes Galicia and some Ottoman Georgian and Armenian territories in the Caucasus. Serbia and Romania become independent (and Russian satellites), while Greece gains Thessal. Bulgaria and Bosnia become autonomous tributary principate under Ottoman suzerainty with a Christian government. Britain gets administration of Cyprus, while Tunisia and Libya are recognized in the Italian sphere of influence and Morocco in the German one.

In France, after some serious political convulsions caused by the defeat (fall of the Napoleonic regime, far-left insurrections in Paris, Lyon, and Marseilles), a reactionary rmonarchist regime takes over in France and the Bourbon dynasty is restored on the throne. Conveniently enough, the heir to the French throne is also the Carlist pretendent to the Spanish throne. The Carlists win the Third Carlist War with French support, and a Franco-Spanish real union is established.

Soon after the peace conference, the German-Russian-Italian alliance is confirmed as the League of Three Monarchs, later redubbed the Triple Alliance, informally joined by Serbia, Romania, and Greece. France-Spain, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire confirm their own alliance too, which gets later dubbed the Triple Entente, informally joined by Bosnia and Bulgaria. Britain remains a pro-Entente neutral for a couple decades, then joins the TE out of growing alarm about the power of the TA continental block.
 
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