AHC and WI: Portuguese Northern Brazil

Between 1822 and 1825, Brazil fought its war of independance angainst the Portuguese Empire. IOTL, it ended with total victory for the independentists. However, for the purposes of alternate history, this outcome is very far from being set in stone.

In fact, most of what I've read about this war seems to point out that the Portuguese forces were far better trained and equipped than the Brazillian ones, and as such were far more likely to win the war, which didn't happen solely because of grave tactical mistakes commited by the Portuguese leadership. There are even people who go as far as saying that prince Pedro's rebellion had been mandated by king John VI of Portugal himself, and that the Portuguese forces weren't truly fighting for victory in the war, and were merely putting on a show to appease the continental bourgeoisie (and I wouldn't even call this a fringe view, it's pretty much mainstream by now).

So, in short, any outcome in the war is possible, including a full Portuguese victory. However, I once asked in this forum what would happen in that case, and the consensus was that winning the war would actually leave the Portuguese in a very precarious position. While a militairy victory over the rebels might ensure Portuguese dominance over Brazil for a few more years, it wouldn't make the social unrest that caused the war in the first disappear. The Portuguese and Brazillian ruling classes would still have clashing interests, and that means there would be more rebellions in the future, and would only stop once one of them succeeded. 1822 was likely too late to save the United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil and the Algalves.

However, even by the time the war errupted, not all of Brazil was in favour of indenpendance. In the northern states of Maranhão and Grão-Pará, both of them remote, sparsely populated, largely pastoral and much more socially and economically integrated with the metropole than the rest of Brazil, the majority of the population seemed to be sympathetic towards the loyalist cause. So, while Portugal, even with a total victory in the Brazillian War of Independance, would probably not the capable of holding the whole of Brazil in the long run, holding the north of the country as well as some portions of the northeast seems to be a lot more feasible.

So, my question for the forum today is, how much of Brazil can Portugal hold in the long run. Surely Maranhão and Grão-Pará, but what about other parts of the northeast. Pernambuco seemed to be overwhelmingly pro-independance in Brazil, but I belive that the population in other states, like Bahia, was about evenly divided (it's probably impossible to hold Bahia without having Pernambuco, though), and I don't know how other states, like Piauí and Ceará stood on the matter.

Anyway, what would be the consequences of Portugal continuing to hold a portion of Brazil after 1825?
 
Would the Portuguese enclave be a slave state too?

Likely for a while. IOTL Portugal only abolished slavery in all territories in 1869. Retaining a part of Brazil will surely not push back this date, but I also don't think it would push it much forward, especially since Britain, of which Portugal was pretty much just a puppet at several times during the 19th century, started pushing for its world-wide abolition at about that time.

So, this means that slavery in Portuguese Northern Brazil stays for a while, but it's likely still abolished before the same thing happens in the rest of Brazil
 

Lusitania

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Maranhão in North which was closer to Lisbon than Rio was loyal to Lisbon till end snd could of formed the nucleus of norther Portuguese. Similar to British North America after ARW.
 
There are even people who go as far as saying that prince Pedro's rebellion had been mandated by king John VI of Portugal himself, and that the Portuguese forces weren't truly fighting for victory in the war, and were merely putting on a show to appease the continental bourgeoisie (and I wouldn't even call this a fringe view, it's pretty much mainstream by now).

A dumb view, and strangely common in Brazil.
The Independence War was a hard-fought war and almost 200 years laters, some effeminate moron slipping vegan tea in upper class São Paulo neighbors is saying that the men who fought for his freedom never fought for his freedom. FFS!

I've had to actually hear that Portugal just "gave up" Brazil. What the hell. No, they fought 'til the end.
 
Likely for a while. IOTL Portugal only abolished slavery in all territories in 1869. Retaining a part of Brazil will surely not push back this date, but I also don't think it would push it much forward, especially since Britain, of which Portugal was pretty much just a puppet at several times during the 19th century, started pushing for its world-wide abolition at about that time.

So, this means that slavery in Portuguese Northern Brazil stays for a while, but it's likely still abolished before the same thing happens in the rest of Brazil
That might have interesting consequences as when there was a free territory in North Brazil (the Counani Republic) it was populated by a lot of maroon slaves
 
I've never heard of the war of independence as a hard contested ordeal. Maybe Portugal gave it their best shot and that wasn't all that ferocious. Considering they weren't much of a shot to begin with, and the home country had been smacked around quite a bit during the Peninsular War a decade earlier, it would hardly be surprising. For whatever reason, whether it was not much of an all to give, or not giving it their all, Portugal didn't really put up much of a fight, overall. Men did die, though, so tell it to the families they left behind, or never had, that it wasn't a real war.
 
I've never heard of the war of independence as a hard contested ordeal. Maybe Portugal gave it their best shot and that wasn't all that ferocious. Considering they weren't much of a shot to begin with, and the home country had been smacked around quite a bit during the Peninsular War a decade earlier, it would hardly be surprising. For whatever reason, whether it was not much of an all to give, or not giving it their all, Portugal didn't really put up much of a fight, overall. Men did die, though, so tell it to the families they left behind, or never had, that it wasn't a real war.

Brazil wans't doing that hot either. It was a new, incipient country. The state's coffers had been pretty much emptied when Dom João VI went back to Portugal. It had a scratch fleet, and an army composed of militias and some former portuguese officers, and had to hire a lot of former Napoleonic Wars military officers to make it work.

It was an all-out fight that was only when Bahia fell to the rebels. Could have gone either way.
 
I think one problem for the Portuguese, is how to keep Portuguese control of the north. I feel like the key is the fleet, defeat the brazilians at sea decisively at some point, then Dom Pedro's rebels won't be able to go beyond Maranhão unless they drag themselves through tropical disease forest. It also takes out a lot of the newborn's Empire mobility.

Maybe with someone else in charge of the whole thing, the Portuguese forces evacuate North after losing most of the northeast, then prepare to defend the North, with the fleet covering them in the seaboard. The Brazilian Army tries to get in by land through the Maranhão-Pará border, but the Portuguese manage to repeal them. Eventually Pedro settles for peace without Grão-Pará, perhaps planning to take it in a second round, but other problems ensure that he never manages to get it.

The number one problem in the Portuguese's hands, is the coming Cabanagem. IOTL, the corrupt elites that ruled the state were a decade away from causing war, and they're the same elites that ruled when the Portuguese were in charge, they just changed sides. New boss was the old boss, but an even farther Rio gave orders rather than an already far Lisboa.

The pro-independence local proto-Cabanagem movements almost took those elites out. I expect their revolt to fail as OTL, and the elites to continue in power. Unless the Portuguese take a greater interest in ruling the region, in ten years the North will burn in the same fires that set France ablaze decades ago.

This time, there's a good chance the Rebels will want to join the incipient Brazilian Empire, and there's a good chance the Empire will try and forment revolt there. So rather than the Cabanagem being a revolution/secession, it will either be secession or desire to join Brazil. Maybe it will be pro-Brazilian if the Liberal elements don't end up sidelined or stamped down - say, maybe Father João Batista Campos doesn't die in 1834, he died from a cut while shaving.

So, if the Brazilians don't get Grão-Pará in 1823, there's a high chance they will get it around 1835. Or later.
 
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Brazil wans't doing that hot either. It was a new, incipient country. The state's coffers had been pretty much emptied when Dom João VI went back to Portugal. It had a scratch fleet, and an army composed of militias and some former portuguese officers, and had to hire a lot of former Napoleonic Wars military officers to make it work.

It was an all-out fight that was only when Bahia fell to the rebels. Could have gone either way.
we'll have to agree to disagree. IMO, at best it was two limp noodles having a sword fight. Certainly, it could have gone either way, especially if Portugal had managed to put any significant reinforcements into the theater (I think this is where the charges of Portugal throwing the fight come from. They allowed the existing forces in Brazil to prosecute the war, while giving them little aid). Fought, yes. Hard fought, no.
 
The number one problem in the Portuguese's hands, is the coming Cabanagem. IOTL, the corrupt elites that ruled the state were a decade away from causing war, and they're the same elites that ruled when the Portuguese were in charge, they just changed sides. New boss was the old boss, but an even farther Rio gave orders rather than an already far Lisboa.

The pro-independence local proto-Cabanagem movements almost took those elites out. I expect their revolt to fail as OTL, and the elites to continue in power. Unless the Portuguese take a greater interest in ruling the region, in ten years the North will burn in the same fires that set France ablaze decades ago.

This time, there's a good chance the Rebels will want to join the incipient Brazilian Empire, and there's a good chance the Empire will try and forment revolt there. So rather than the Cabanagem being a revolution/secession, it will either be secession or desire to join Brazil. Maybe it will be pro-Brazilian if the Liberal elements don't end up sidelined or stamped down - say, maybe Father João Batista Campos doesn't die in 1834, he died from a cut while shaving.

So, if the Brazilians don't get Grão-Pará in 1823, there's a high chance they will get it around 1835. Or later.

Interesting stuff.

The immediate Portuguese policies regarding any Brazillian terrotories that may remain in their hands is fairly easy to predict. Lisbon will further centralize the administration and try to quell (using violence if necessary), any pro-Brazillian Empire or republican indentestist sentiments. Portugal-born administrators would be sent to take control of the region, with them consulting with Lisbon far more often than most colonial administrators did (which may actually not be terribly inefficient since Grão-Pará and Maranhão were actually closer to Lisbon than they were to Rio, as you yourself have observed). The local elites would be kept in place, but be relatively sidelined in the administration. They did not seem to particularily mind this, though, as the representatives of Grão-Pará to the portuguese consitutional cortes of 1820 all voted in favour of extremely centralizing acts. So, in the end, I don't think dealing with the elites would be a problem for Portugal, even if they take away some of their power. They'll likely just be to busy ingratiating themselves to the cortes to actually complain about anything.

Now, as for the common people, which, as I understand, were the main participants in the Cabanada revolt, all depends on how well Portugal would administer the territories, and obviously, this could go either way depending on whose in charge.

If there is still a cabanada though, I personally don't find that likely for it to be a pro-Brazillian Empire revolt. Brazillian national identity at the point, was still something that was pretty much in the making, and, having stayed with Portugal in 1823, Grão-Pará was left out of much of that. So, I don't see them wanting to join Brazil out of patriotism or anything like that. The only reason why they might want to join Brazil is if they believe that the government in Rio will treat them better and/or give them more authority than the one Lisbon, which they don't really have much reason to believe...

In the the end, I think its most likely for the revolt to be republican and independentist in character rather than pro-Brazillian, althought, there are some Portuguese-born political movements that could have captured the support of common people in Grão-Pará, just as they did in Portugal. I'm mostly thinking about setembrismo, which was a radical democratic populist movement, but still in favour of a monarchy, and miguelismo, the support for the absolutist king Dom Miguel, who, after being defeated in the civil war and going into exile declared his abdication invalid, and continued to claim that he was the legitimate king, periodically helping to spurr revolts in Portugal.

Weird conflicts and alliances betweens these faction and others dominated Portuguese history throughout the first half of the 19th century. Maranhão and Grão-Pará may get caught in this if they stay with Portugal.

In fact, i believe its most important that we examine what role these territories would play in these early Portuguese conflict, starting with the civil war (1832-1834). I guess the local elites would side with the Liberals, since they were not a true aristocracy but a sort of agrcultural bourgeoisie. There might be some miguelite simpathizers among some of the common people, but I think it's likely that these territories will be liberal strongholds like the Azores. Actually, they may very well be the place where Dom Pedro first raises his army to put his daughter back on the throne. From there they'd would get to Azores and then history would mostly proceed as we know it.
 
Reviving thread, subject is fairly rare.

The immediate Portuguese policies regarding any Brazillian terrotories that may remain in their hands is fairly easy to predict. Lisbon will further centralize the administration and try to quell (using violence if necessary), any pro-Brazillian Empire or republican indentestist sentiments. Portugal-born administrators would be sent to take control of the region, with them consulting with Lisbon far more often than most colonial administrators did (which may actually not be terribly inefficient since Grão-Pará and Maranhão were actually closer to Lisbon than they were to Rio, as you yourself have observed). The local elites would be kept in place, but be relatively sidelined in the administration. They did not seem to particularily mind this, though, as the representatives of Grão-Pará to the portuguese consitutional cortes of 1820 all voted in favour of extremely centralizing acts. So, in the end, I don't think dealing with the elites would be a problem for Portugal, even if they take away some of their power. They'll likely just be to busy ingratiating themselves to the cortes to actually complain about anything.

That makes sense.
So the local elites get sidelined. This is good, if the administrator from Lisbon can administer things better and deal better with the problems of the common people.

Now, as for the common people, which, as I understand, were the main participants in the Cabanada revolt, all depends on how well Portugal would administer the territories, and obviously, this could go either way depending on whose in charge.

A butterflied Cabanagem would make Grão-Pará far more stronger. If I remember right, 33% of the popullation of Grão-Pará died during the Cabanagem. It was war to the knife, Brazil's equivalent to the French Revolution and often gets forgotten, overshadowed by the - I would dare say - less important Farroupilha. All these people + the coming immigrants, would probably mean a bigger popullation in the region.

Also, ownership of the land might mean that many of the Portuguese immigrants that went to OTL Brazil, would come up here. A lot would die due to tropical diseases, but many would survive and prosper. We had azorean immigration and jews as well, so I suspect they would come in ever bigger numbers.

I wonder... could this stronger demographic base lead to the discovery of the vast reserves of gold and minerals that Grão-Pará holds? Imagine the Luso-Paraenses finding Eldorado dos Carajás, or Serra Pelada. I do wonder if this time the Portuguese will let a gold rush just like in Minas happen, or if they will move in and try to centralize the whole thing so the crown gets ALL the gold.

If there is still a cabanada though, I personally don't find that likely for it to be a pro-Brazillian Empire revolt. Brazillian national identity at the point, was still something that was pretty much in the making, and, having stayed with Portugal in 1823, Grão-Pará was left out of much of that. So, I don't see them wanting to join Brazil out of patriotism or anything like that. The only reason why they might want to join Brazil is if they believe that the government in Rio will treat them better and/or give them more authority than the one Lisbon, which they don't really have much reason to believe...

You make a good point.
One reason the rebels might just go independentist instead, is slavery. A lot of the cabanos were slaves. No reason to side with the Empire, when its a slave-owning state itself. Just a change of masters.

There is something else that could dissuade them: A revolt might be just the opening needed for a Brazilian invasion. So, its a choice between just putting up with the suckyness and dealing with it, and having to deal with a foreign invasion and all that brings.

In the the end, I think its most likely for the revolt to be republican and independentist in character rather than pro-Brazillian, althought, there are some Portuguese-born political movements that could have captured the support of common people in Grão-Pará, just as they did in Portugal. I'm mostly thinking about setembrismo, which was a radical democratic populist movement, but still in favour of a monarchy, and miguelismo, the support for the absolutist king Dom Miguel, who, after being defeated in the civil war and going into exile declared his abdication invalid, and continued to claim that he was the legitimate king, periodically helping to spurr revolts in Portugal.

Oh, now that is quite curious and interesting.
I honestly don't know much about Portuguese history when it parts way with Brazilian history.

Do you think a second war with Brazil could happen?

In fact, i believe its most important that we examine what role these territories would play in these early Portuguese conflict, starting with the civil war (1832-1834). I guess the local elites would side with the Liberals, since they were not a true aristocracy but a sort of agrcultural bourgeoisie. There might be some miguelite simpathizers among some of the common people, but I think it's likely that these territories will be liberal strongholds like the Azores. Actually, they may very well be the place where Dom Pedro first raises his army to put his daughter back on the throne. From there they'd would get to Azores and then history would mostly proceed as we know it.

Hmmmm... makes sense.

Could this butterfly Dom Pedro's death? I remember there being propositions for him to take the throne of Spain and Greece. He died pretty young.
 
A butterflied Cabanagem would make Grão-Pará far more stronger. If I remember right, 33% of the popullation of Grão-Pará died during the Cabanagem. It was war to the knife, Brazil's equivalent to the French Revolution and often gets forgotten, overshadowed by the - I would dare say - less important Farroupilha. All these people + the coming immigrants, would probably mean a bigger popullation in the region.

Also, ownership of the land might mean that many of the Portuguese immigrants that went to OTL Brazil, would come up here. A lot would die due to tropical diseases, but many would survive and prosper. We had azorean immigration and jews as well, so I suspect they would come in ever bigger numbers.

I wonder... could this stronger demographic base lead to the discovery of the vast reserves of gold and minerals that Grão-Pará holds? Imagine the Luso-Paraenses finding Eldorado dos Carajás, or Serra Pelada. I do wonder if this time the Portuguese will let a gold rush just like in Minas happen, or if they will move in and try to centralize the whole thing so the crown gets ALL the gold.

This isn't the 18th century, so I think it doesn't make sense to be talking about crown monopolies. There was a lot of mining development in Portugal during the 19th century, mostly led by British companies. I imagine a similar model would be applied to Grão-Pará: mostly big private companies with a lot of British capital, although the nature of the gold rush does mean that there will also be a lot of independent miners.

After Portugal was done with the chronic instability of the first half of the 19th century, it embarked in a project called Regeneration. It involved a lot of industrialization, infrastructure development, agricultura and mining development, administrative reforms etc. It was mostly led by British companies and required lending a lot of money. In the end, it bankrupted the country, but did get some things done. I wonder how Portugal retaining the north of Brazil would play into this.

Do you think a second war with Brazil could happen?

Well, if irredentist elements are strong enough in either Portugal or Brazil, yes, it can happen. However, I think it's safe to say that it would be a terrible idea for both parts (since none of the countries is particularily stable).

Could this butterfly Dom Pedro's death? I remember there being propositions for him to take the throne of Spain and Greece. He died pretty young.

If he doesn't die in 1834, he probably stays in Portugal as regent for his daughter, at least until she comes of age three years later. I don't know if he would take the Greek or Spanish thrones if he was asked to. As he had abdicated the thrones of both Portugal and Brazil, there wouldn't be any legal impediments to him doing it if he wanted to. Pedro was, to a certain extent, an idealist, so he may feel tempted to take a foreign crown if he thinks he can use that crown to do good. But on the other hand he hadn't any personal connection to Greece or Spain the way he had to Portugal and Brazil.
 
This isn't the 18th century, so I think it doesn't make sense to be talking about crown monopolies. There was a lot of mining development in Portugal during the 19th century, mostly led by British companies. I imagine a similar model would be applied to Grão-Pará: mostly big private companies with a lot of British capital, although the nature of the gold rush does mean that there will also be a lot of independent miners.

Hmmm... interesting.

After Portugal was done with the chronic instability of the first half of the 19th century, it embarked in a project called Regeneration. It involved a lot of industrialization, infrastructure development, agricultura and mining development, administrative reforms etc. It was mostly led by British companies and required lending a lot of money. In the end, it bankrupted the country, but did get some things done. I wonder how Portugal retaining the north of Brazil would play into this.

If they have the North, I suspect they will have more resources and manpower in general to play with. Leading into the above part, could vast reserves of gold, manganese, aluminium and iron help? Grão-Pará got all that. There's even some oil in the shore but its not worth digging it out right now, so I don't think they had the tech for it, then. I do know there's some oil in the Amazonas, dunno if its possible to explore with late 19th century tech.

Could they use vegetal coal as a power source for industrialization?

Also, Rubber Boom!

Well, if irredentist elements are strong enough in either Portugal or Brazil, yes, it can happen. However, I think it's safe to say that it would be a terrible idea for both parts (since none of the countries is particularily stable).

Hmmm... interesting. Could this lead to the development of a Luso-Brazilian Special Relationship? Grão-Pará and Portugal being the Canda and UK to Brazil's USA.

And what do you think would be the impacts in wider geopolitics?

If he doesn't die in 1834, he probably stays in Portugal as regent for his daughter, at least until she comes of age three years later. I don't know if he would take the Greek or Spanish thrones if he was asked to. As he had abdicated the thrones of both Portugal and Brazil, there wouldn't be any legal impediments to him doing it if he wanted to. Pedro was, to a certain extent, an idealist, so he may feel tempted to take a foreign crown if he thinks he can use that crown to do good. But on the other hand he hadn't any personal connection to Greece or Spain the way he had to Portugal and Brazil.

So, you think he stays as regent and then stays at home. What's next for him, then? Dom Pedro never seemed one for the family life to me.
Weren't the then-holders of the Spanish throne his relatives as well?
 
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