AHC and WI: No Yugoslavia after WWI

Firstly, stop the union of the State of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs with the Kingdom of Serbia that happened on the 1 December 1918 OTL, preventing the creation of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia under a Serb Monarchy, and secure international recognition for this independent Slavic state in former Austro-Hungarian territory.

Slovenes%2C_Croats%2C_Serbs.PNG


How long till this has terrible, terrible repercussions? How much of a problem will Serbian irredentism towards Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia-Slavonia and Dalmatia be for this state? What happens to Montenegro? How do the butterflies affect the rest of Europe and the road to WWII? Once this chance has been missed, will there ever be a federal Yugoslavia, Socialist or otherwise?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
The problem is that I doubt Slovenia and Croatia will survive as independent states long considering the how hawkish the Inter War years are, and considering Italy and her allies.
 
Montenegro could easily remained independent, although whether that was viable is another issue.

I'm no expert, but I started reading up the other day on the circumstances of its incorporation into Yugoslavia after WW1 - apparently against the wishes of the pre war leadership (the King) and after a nasty "occupation" by Serb troops who crushed opposition to their planned incorporation. I

've only read one account so far, but given that Montenegro was a member of the Allied powers in its own right, it could well stay separate. Apparently representatives of the pre war leadership tried to gain admission to the post war settlements and were refused
 
How about:

a) The November 1918 armistice occurs with the front intact at Salonika and in Italy (perhaps the Germans realize the weakness of the Salonika front and move a full strength division behind the lines from the eastern front in August 1918 (same for the Italian front), Croatia and Slovenia are still under nominal Austrian control after the armistice until conclusion of a general peace.

OR

b) The Serbian army does not escape across Albania in the winter of 1915/1916, but is captured instead.

OR

c) Germany/Austria/Bulgaria agree to a cease fire with Serbia in Dec 1915 where the remainder of the Serbian army remains on Serbian soil controlling some remainder of their country until the conclusion of a general peace (sort of a Vichy Serbia), thus Serbia lacks prestige at the end of the war.

In any of these cases the Croats and Slovens have more time to establish themselves and grab lots of Austrian military hardware before the Serbians can move in.
 
This country could be established if the Croat and Slovenian troops don't get captured on the Italian front but are capable of retreating in good order thus creating the armed forces of the new state. The borders show on that map 100% will not be the end result but a country was viable though It will have a hard time keeping the Italians in check. It will need some really good realtions with either France or UK and will most probably be part of the little Entante.
 
Maybe try to make an alliance with Italy before Benny come to power; before the goverment was ready to make concession and give up claim so to get in some better relationships with his neighbourghs and extend his political and economic influence with diplomatic means; basically make the italian delegation stay in Versailles and make them use the kingdoms of C.S.S. as a counterpoint to the serbs (Russian and later France ally, used to curb and limit italian influence in the balkans).
 
Maybe try to make an alliance with Italy before Benny come to power; before the goverment was ready to make concession and give up claim so to get in some better relationships with his neighbourghs and extend his political and economic influence with diplomatic means; basically make the italian delegation stay in Versailles and make them use the kingdoms of C.S.S. as a counterpoint to the serbs (Russian and later France ally, used to curb and limit italian influence in the balkans).

Why would the Italians want to ally against the Serbs if it's the Croats and Slovenes who are controlling what many regard as rightfully Italian territory? An alliance with the Serbs to weaken the Croatio-Slovenes makes more sense. Even without Mussolini anti-Slovene and Anti-Croat racism was a very present current in Italian life.
 
Why would the Italians want to ally against the Serbs if it's the Croats and Slovenes who are controlling what many regard as rightfully Italian territory? An alliance with the Serbs to weaken the Croatio-Slovenes makes more sense. Even without Mussolini anti-Slovene and Anti-Croat racism was a very present current in Italian life.

Because the Italians and the Serbs are aiming at the same influence and territory (and during the war the two side basically loathe each others at least in terms of military high command), the latter was basically supported first by Russia and later by France so there were limit to italian influence and a ally in the zone.
And as said above the italian goverment of the time was ready (not really happy about it sure, but nevertheless ready to follow some type of 'realpolitick') to give up some claims so to work better with his neighbour in the future, policy basically reversed overnight by Benny
 
This scenario has huge potential. Do you care about what happens to Banat?

The State of Slovenes, Croats, and Serbs, let's say, becomes the Kingdom of Illyria. To placate the Italians, a member of the House of Savoy is placed on the throne in Zagreb (?). Serbia is placated by being permitted to annex Montenegro, as happened in our timeline. Bačka and Baranya go to Hungary, while Banat goes to Romania.

If what I propose works, then it may be possible to butterfly away MUssolini's rise to power. Then again, this proposal is a situation in which neither the Italians nor the Serbs are truly happy with the peace deal, and could well end up aligned against Illyria. This could have huge butterflies overtime in the Balkans, and makes the place of Islam in the region that much more interesting.
 
Because the Italians and the Serbs are aiming at the same influence and territory (and during the war the two side basically loathe each others at least in terms of military high command), the latter was basically supported first by Russia and later by France so there were limit to italian influence and a ally in the zone.
And as said above the italian goverment of the time was ready (not really happy about it sure, but nevertheless ready to follow some type of 'realpolitick') to give up some claims so to work better with his neighbour in the future, policy basically reversed overnight by Benny

Well, Italy and Serbia were not aiming at the same influence and territory - Italians were aiming at the coastal area, Serbs were looking for inland areas with large Serb populations, although they would have wanted a port or two in the Adriatic also. If the war ends the way it did in OTL, but Croats and Slovenians refuse to join the Serbs in the new Kingdom while not having an effective armed force themselves, they'll find themselves at the mercy of the Serbs who will still want to include the large Serb populations in BiH and in Krajina in their state (would probably get a good chunk of Slavonija in the east too), and as soon as they do the Italians will be keen to put in their claim to the coastal areas. This in turn means that an alliance, or at least an agreement, between the Italians and the Serbs is very likely to take place, as the only stumbling block would be Serbian access to the Adriatic (maybe the Italians would be willing to give Dubrovnik and the surrounding areas to the Serbs, as that area was largely independent for much of its history).

This would leave the new state of Croats and Slovenians (probably no Serbs though) greatly reduced, probably on a Zagreb-Maribor-Ljubljana axis, and make the new (Greater) Serbia the big kid on the block instead of Yugoslavia. Italy would be strengthened too, but not sure if that would be enough to prevent Benny from taking over. The course of WW2 (which would still happen) would be very different in this area though, and would probably have some interesting consequences for the post WW2 developments.
 
This could have huge butterflies overtime in the Balkans, and makes the place of Islam in the region that much more interesting.

Actually, the scenario I outlined above would probably greatly reduce the influence of Islam in the region - Serbs pretty much cleansed the Muslim population from Serbia (a few remained in the Sandzak region) after getting independence from the Ottoman empire, and if I recall correctly had plans to do something similar in Bosnia. I remember reading that Nikola Pasic mentioned something along those lines in the talks with the Croat delegation over the proposed new joined state in 1915, leaving the Croat delegation absolutely stunned.

So if Serbs expand their state in the way I outlined, I suspect they largely get rid of the Muslims in BiH, meaning the new (Greater) Serbia is much more ethnically homogeneous.

My God, I've turned this into a Serb-wank!
 
The course of WW2 (which would still happen) would be very different in this area though, and would probably have some interesting consequences for the post WW2 developments.

Axis Greater Serbia joins in a invasion of their Slovene and Croat neighbours, perhaps? Maybe reducing the amount of German forces diverted to the Balkans?

That could be interesting, because a Axis Serbia would force Boris Coburg's Bulgaria into the allied or even the Soviet camp, if he wants Macedon. This is fitting, since poor old Boris never fitted in with all those spineless opportunists and genocidal murderers who made up most of Hitler's allies.

How about Hungary preserving its orginal territory, including Croatia? Serbia could be awarded Bosnia or whatnot.

Can't see that happening, especially not after the Aster Revolution and Béla Kun's reign of terror. Horthy's too busy keeping his own house in order to hold down Croatia.
 
Axis Greater Serbia joins in a invasion of their Slovene and Croat neighbours, perhaps? Maybe reducing the amount of German forces diverted to the Balkans?

That could be interesting, because a Axis Serbia would force Boris Coburg's Bulgaria into the allied or even the Soviet camp, if he wants Macedon. This is fitting, since poor old Boris never fitted in with all those spineless opportunists and genocidal murderers who made up most of Hitler's allies.

It would get interesting. A big question in this scenario if a movement like the Ustase happens among Croats. There would be a Croat minority in this Serbia, who would probably want to join with their brethren in the Croatian-Slovenian state, but would such a movement be strong enough to co-operate with Macedonian separatists (who I suspect would still be around) to assassinate King Alexander in 1934?

If Alexander lives, it'd be hard to see Serbia joining the Axis, while on the other hand, when the Germans figure out they need Serbia for their supply lines and in all likelihood invade, Croatia-Slovenia state probably sides with them and maybe reclaims some of the ethnic Croat territories in Serbia. Now this may sound similar to what happened in OTL, but the course of the war would be drastically different - there would be no Ustasa-style attack on Serbs in Croatia-Slovenia state, since there would be no (or very little) Serbs there who would present a threat. Similarly with Serbia being largely homogeneous, there is less chance of ethnic violence in BiH (part of Serbia now with no Ustase, Muslims out, and Croats in significant minority or joining the Croatia-Slovenia state). There could be some fighting with the Croats in the latter situation, but can't see it being large scale and going anywhere near as horrifically as in OTL. This would all mean that resistance movements such as Tito's in OTL never happen, which in turn leaves both Serbia and Croatia-Slovenia state right in the path of the Red Army in 1944/1945, which would also be eyeing up the Adriatic in the face of Italian collapse. So the end-product could well be both Serbia and Croatia-Slovenia under the Soviet (rather than Tito's) boot, and the impact this could have on the communist movements in Italy and Greece post-WW2, and the wider consequences for post-war Europe could end up being even more interesting.
 
Well, Italy and Serbia were not aiming at the same influence and territory - Italians were aiming at the coastal area, Serbs were looking for inland areas with large Serb populations, although they would have wanted a port or two in the Adriatic also.

The problem is that what Italy wants basically mean a landlocked Serbia (except Montenegro if they get it) as the italian population was concentrated in the port (the more usable one) and little inland mean that the italian zone is not very defensible in case of hostily so an italian/serbian conflict of interest is on schedule; secondly yes Italy and Serbia were aiming at the same influence zone aka the balkans and more precisely Croatia, as none in Italy was really much happy to change a powerfull neighbour with another (France was of another opion instead) If the war ends the way it did in OTL, but Croats and Slovenians refuse to join the Serbs in the new Kingdom while not having an effective armed force themselves, they'll find themselves at the mercy of the Serbs who will still want to include the large Serb populations in BiH and in Krajina in their state (would probably get a good chunk of Slavonija in the east too), and as soon as they do the Italians will be keen to put in their claim to the coastal areas. This in turn means that an alliance, or at least an agreement, between the Italians and the Serbs is very likely to take place, as the only stumbling block would be Serbian access to the Adriatic (maybe the Italians would be willing to give Dubrovnik and the surrounding areas to the Serbs, as that area was largely independent for much of its history).

This would leave the new state of Croats and Slovenians (probably no Serbs though) greatly reduced, probably on a Zagreb-Maribor-Ljubljana axis, and make the new (Greater) Serbia the big kid on the block instead of Yugoslavia. Italy would be strengthened too, but not sure if that would be enough to prevent Benny from taking over. The course of WW2 (which would still happen) would be very different in this area though, and would probably have some interesting consequences for the post WW2 developments.[/QUOTE]
 
The problem is that what Italy wants basically mean a landlocked Serbia (except Montenegro if they get it) as the italian population was concentrated in the port (the more usable one) and little inland mean that the italian zone is not very defensible in case of hostily so an italian/serbian conflict of interest is on schedule; secondly yes Italy and Serbia were aiming at the same influence zone aka the balkans and more precisely Croatia, as none in Italy was really much happy to change a powerfull neighbour with another (France was of another opion instead) If the war ends the way it did in OTL, but Croats and Slovenians refuse to join the Serbs in the new Kingdom while not having an effective armed force themselves, they'll find themselves at the mercy of the Serbs who will still want to include the large Serb populations in BiH and in Krajina in their state (would probably get a good chunk of Slavonija in the east too), and as soon as they do the Italians will be keen to put in their claim to the coastal areas. This in turn means that an alliance, or at least an agreement, between the Italians and the Serbs is very likely to take place, as the only stumbling block would be Serbian access to the Adriatic (maybe the Italians would be willing to give Dubrovnik and the surrounding areas to the Serbs, as that area was largely independent for much of its history).

This would leave the new state of Croats and Slovenians (probably no Serbs though) greatly reduced, probably on a Zagreb-Maribor-Ljubljana axis, and make the new (Greater) Serbia the big kid on the block instead of Yugoslavia. Italy would be strengthened too, but not sure if that would be enough to prevent Benny from taking over. The course of WW2 (which would still happen) would be very different in this area though, and would probably have some interesting consequences for the post WW2 developments.

But the point is that with an agreement like this (assuming that the Italians would allow Serbs some sort of access to the Adriatic) both would exert the influence over the area, without necessarily getting into conflict over it since they've both reached their territorial aims. For both it would be important to keep the Croats down, which is another reason for them to co-operate.

As for the shallowness of Italian territorial gains on the other side of the Adriatic, if they go too deep then they have a good chunk of non-Italian populace in there that's bound to cause them trouble. Add into that the geography of the area (Dinaric Alps rising not too far off the coast) and keeping the narrow coastal strip makes sense for the Italians.
 
Top