House Medici was expelled from power and exiled from Florence in 1493; they would return to power under Cosimo Medici in 1512. Your challenge here is, how can the latter be prevented with a PoD after the former? (Can it be after the death of Savonarola?) How long can the "people's republic" of Florence last, and can it prosper?

And given the answers here, what are the effects? On Italian geopolitics, European history, art history, etc?

EDIT NOTE: I was mistaken about the red highlighted section; see below.
 
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House Medici was expelled from power and exiled from Florence in 1493; they would return to power under Cosimo Medici in 1512. Your challenge here is, how can the latter be prevented with a PoD after the former? (Can it be after the death of Savonarola?) How long can the "people's republic" of Florence last, and can it prosper?

And given the answers here, what are the effects? On Italian geopolitics, European history, art history, etc?

Small nitpicks.

House of Medici, or House of de Medici - though with all the GOT stuff, it's easy to forget.

Cosimo wasn't born until 1519, so I'm not sure who you're referring to. His father - the mercenary, Giovanni 'delle Bande Nere' (of the Black Bands) de Medici was all of fourteen years old - and from a junior line.

In 1512, there was no claimant to any title, Lorenzo il Magnifico had been elected as First Signore of Florence, but he'd died on 8 April 1492. Piero 'il Fatuo' succeeded him to that title, but was chased out by that pulpit-bashing Dominican in 1494. Piero, married to Alfonsina Orsini, died in 1503, fleeing from battle (IIRC), leaving two children - Clarissa (who married a Salviati, and became Cosimo I's maternal grandmother) and Lorenzo II, the duke of Urbino. Lorenzo married Madeleine de la Tour d'Auvergne and was the father of Catherine de Medici. In 1512, Lorenzo was twenty, and his uncle (Giovanni de Medici) was the pope, Leo X. However, when the pope later appointed Medici to the rulers of Florence (only in 1531), he chose Alessandro (who, according to some sources was the son of Lorenzo II's cousin, Pope Clement VII, and according to others Lorenzo's bastard by the same woman). Then there was Ippolito de Medici, who was dressed in cardinal's skirts (the bastard son of Giuliano de Medici, duc de Nemours, marquis de Soragne, a brother of Piero and Leo X). It was only after all of them died that Cosimo was chosen to be duke in 1540, only becoming grand duke in 1569.
 
Small nitpicks.
Ah, you are correct; it was Giuliano di Lorenzo de' Medici (Duke of Nemours, and third son of Lorenzo the Magnificent) who was restored to power in 1512; then it was the Duke of Urbino, then the cardinal who became Clement VII.

FWIG, Pope Julius II had the Medici return to power, due to a complicated series of events during the War of the League of Cambrai. Now I wonder if the "People's" Republic can be saved with a PoD after the start of said war in 1508?

CONSOLIDATE: This is also an idea.
 
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Ah, you are correct; it was Giuliano di Lorenzo de' Medici (Duke of Nemours, and third son of Lorenzo the Magnificent) who was restored to power in 1512; then it was the Duke of Urbino, then the cardinal who became Clement VII.

FWIG, Pope Julius II had the Medici return to power, due to a complicated series of events during the War of the League of Cambrai. Now I wonder if the "People's" Republic can be saved with a PoD after the start of said war in 1508?

CONSOLIDATE: This is also an idea.

Maybe if the Republic sees itself as less pro-French (if I recall correctly, there was an incident at the Palazzo Riccardi - when the king of France didn't receive the money he had demanded (as tribute?), he threatened to "sound my trumpets" - only to be answered by the representative of the Republic, Piero Capponi "do that, sire, and we shall ring our bells!" and he tore up the copy of the treaty and stormed off. The French king called Capponi back and peace was made. The king remarked to Capponi: "Ah, Chapon, Chapon, you are a naughty Chapon". So, the purpose of il Papa Guerriero was to throw the French out - so, perhaps if the Republica is less allied with the French, the papacy won't target it. Of course, another option is to prevent the election to the papacy of Giovanni de Lorenzo and Giulio de Giuliano de Medicis
 
Maybe if the Republic sees itself as less pro-French (if I recall correctly, there was an incident at the Palazzo Riccardi - when the king of France didn't receive the money he had demanded (as tribute?), he threatened to "sound my trumpets" - only to be answered by the representative of the Republic, Piero Capponi "do that, sire, and we shall ring our bells!" and he tore up the copy of the treaty and stormed off. The French king called Capponi back and peace was made. The king remarked to Capponi: "Ah, Chapon, Chapon, you are a naughty Chapon". So, the purpose of il Papa Guerriero was to throw the French out - so, perhaps if the Republica is less allied with the French, the papacy won't target it.
Looking up Piero Capponi, now I wonder if having him survive might be a pretty helpful PoD?
 
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