AHC and WI: No Indian Emergency in 1975

Well, I have something in the works where the Emergency is not lifted. Sanjay's plans for it were interesting in the Chinese sense... but that said, you'd need the Supreme Court not to rule against Indira on the minor charge (a civil servant working for her campaign before his resignation took effect, though he'd already resigned, and an excessively high podium :rolleyes:). Then the election is held on schedule in February 1976 (again, if the eleciton had been held on schedule IOTL, she'd have won. Sanjay's plan was to not hold another election for "at least 20 years") and she wins another landslide victory. The JP movement ramps up and JP himself is thrown into prison for sedition, since calling on the military and police to disobey orders is fairly cut-and-clear on that subject.

What happens then? Depends on the butterflies on how she handles the secessionist movements. Trying to have her cake and eat it too by such activities as tacitly backing Bhindranwale during the 1970s will come back to haunt her as it did IOTL. When she steps down, voluntarily or otherwise, Sanjay becomes prime minister.
 
I also have no reason to see why the 20-point program or the infamous 5-point program wouldn't be enacted IOTL. The sterilization program would not be coercive (an excellent account based on OTL is A Fine Balance), the press wouldn't be censored or journalists harassed, nor would Sanjay's goondas openly extort from businesses under the "guise" of party fundraising. There were mounting domestic problems, such as the railway strike of '74 which as an essential service had to be broken by the military, food prices, but nothing that couldn't be dealt with under regular law. No 39th Amendment (PM's election removed from judicial scrutiny), suspension of the 19th (basic rights) or 42nd (India officially a secuar, socialist republic with citizens' duties laid out- both 39 and 42 were struck down later by SCOI). Eventually the Supreme Court will rule as per OTL that ultra vires modifications to the basic structure cannot be legislated by Parliament.


By this time her post-'71 khaki boost had worn off, but she was still in touch with the population and as always there was no viable alternative to the INC.
 
Interesting... So if Indira wins re-election in 76, does a coalition without the INC have a chance in 1981?

Who could succeed her? FWIG, BJS leaders Vajpayee or Advani are the prime possibilities...
 
No. India, like Japan, is a one-party state where the fractious opposition has to coalesce around a major defector (s) and win only after the hegemon (INC/LDP) has taken too many fatal hits from scandal. In 1977 this was the Emergency. In 1989 it was Bofors and Shah Bano. Then the opposition destroys themselves quickly because their tent is too big and can't agree on anything besides dislodging the hegemon. By 1979 Janata fell apart due to interfactional squabbling (plus the courts squashing the politically motivated charges against Indira and Sanjay) and within 6 months Congress was back in power. Within 18 months of the 1989 election, Rajiv was on track to reclaim power with a majority government in a Trudeau '80 style comeback before Semtex Lady intervened. Congress ended up with a strong minority under his deputy.

Without any smoking gun like Bofors or the Emergency, Congress retains power until a smoking gun does occur. The BJP are at heart Hindu chauvinists and have often played a part in inciting ethnic violence, so the national unity card can easily be played against them.

Within the Congress Party, Sanjay will succeed his mother and his apolitical (prior to 1980) brother gets his coveted upgrade to 707s.

Without saying "Vlad Tepes", Sanjay's premiership would resembles his brother's in most aspects but one: internal security. His role model was Ferdinand Marcos, and the Emergency proved that he was intent on following said model to a T. I would peg the chances of his leaving office voluntarily, in good health and on his own terms at no more than 30% myself. His mother and he didn't believe that democratic institutions could survive prolonged severe political turbulence and that authoritarian measuers were the only solution in said circumstances.
 
OK, so you'd have Indira Gahndi (1966-81) followed by her son Sanjay Gahdni, reigning until 91 or 96, depending on how his Marcos style goes down...
 
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