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Assuming the Byzantines still lose the Battle of Manzikert as OTL (albeit w different aftermath), how can the First Crusade be avoided? From there, how hard is it for no Crusades (around the Holy Land, at least) to occur in the 12th Century at all? And what would the effects of this be on Europe, the ERE, and the Middle East? Finally, what happens when the Mongols show up (assuming Temujin is not butterflied)?