AHC and WI: France "wins" Seven Years War (outside of Europe)

[John Fredrick Parker]

OTL, theaters of this war between France and Britain were fought in North America, the West Indies, Senegal, and India -- and in all those theaters, the French lost. Indeed, the First French Colonial Empire, outside of Haiti, was pretty much wiped away by this conflict. So with preferably no PoDs prior to 1754, none before the War of Austrian Succession at the very earliest, and without changing the Diplomatic Revolution of 1756* how could as much of French global reach as possible have been preserved in the conflict? Bonus points if Prussia still wins on the Continent.

And given (an) answer, what would be the effects?

*so Britain and Prussia are still allies, as are France Austria; however, OP does allow for pretty much any other combatant to choose neutrality TTL (example), so long as no major power fights on the opposite side of OTL

 

[Matteo]

Problem is France needs to be able to project more power overseas than it was OTL. And for this you need France to be more successful in the European part of the conflict.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

@Matteo Is it just a matter of the French being able to project power, or could French allies (or just anti-British non-European nations) fare better? For example, it seems plausible with a 1740's PoD for British influence in India to be seriously curbed.

 

[UCB79]

You'd also need France to have a better navy than it in fact did.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

In this country , it is good to kill an admiral from time to time

 

[funnyhat]

Having Spain get involved earlier could help. IOTL, they didn't join the fight until 1761 and by that time France was basically done, so the British did not really have to fight the two of them at once.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

@Ultima Ratio That's a much earlier PoD than what we're looking at.

You're right, I remembered differently, it was a while ago when I started to read that TL.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Here's a thought -- if the war in Europe is shorter (due to Austria having fewer allies against the Prussians), and ends prior to autum of 1758, would that preempt the British Conquest of Canada?

If it ends by spring, maybe even Senegal can be saved?

 

[funnyhat]

Here's a thought -- if the war in Europe is shorter (due to Austria having fewer allies against the Prussians), and ends prior to autum of 1758, would that preempt the British Conquest of Canada?

If it ends by spring, maybe even Senegal can be saved?

I would think so. The war in North America mostly favored France until the British captured Louisbourg in the summer of 1758. Until then they had not had an opportunity to invade Québec (they preferred to invade by land but were defeated at Carillon earlier that summer).

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Ok, so French influence in India can be preserved easily enough with a First Carnatic War PoD (or, failing that, British domination there can be curbed), and French North America can be preserved by shortening the 7YW after that. And with this, I'd say the OP is pretty much met.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

OTL, theaters of this war between France and Britain were fought in North America, the West Indies, Senegal, and India -- and in all those theaters, the French lost. Indeed, the First French Colonial Empire, outside of Haiti, was pretty much wiped away by this conflict. So with preferably no PoDs prior to 1754, none before the War of Austrian Succession at the very earliest, and without changing the Diplomatic Revolution of 1756* how could as much of French global reach as possible have been preserved in the conflict? Bonus points if Prussia still wins on the Continent.

And given (an) answer, what would be the effects?

*so Britain and Prussia are still allies, as are France Austria; however, OP does allow for pretty much any other combatant to choose neutrality TTL (example), so long as no major power fights on the opposite side of OTL

The key to France's empire in North America is Louisbourg, and the French strategy for its defence was to use a large naval build up to deter the British, and in 1757 an additional 5 ships of the line had been sufficient. For 1758 15 ships of the line were earmarked to reenforce the fortress, but a storm stuck them in port and their attempt to leave resulted in the catastrophic Battle of Cartagena. Have Menneville go completely mad and brave the storm and even if a few are torn to pieces Louisbourg gets its reinforcements.

 

[funnyhat]

A few thoughts on the short term: if France does not return Madras to the English in Aix la Chapelle, that means the French now control all European ports in the Arcot State,

It is hard for France not to return Madras in 1748 though, as it got back Louisbourg in return.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

It is hard for France not to return Madras in 1748 though, as it got back Louisbourg in return.

Ah, it seems you're right; I had thought that they returned it in exchange for lifting the Siege of Pondicherry, but it seems I was mistaken. If the British kept Louisburg after the WoAS (as many in the British government proposed), that would change how the F&IW goes a few years later; could well be my proposed Indian PoD would actually lead to French North America falling earlier TTL, if anything.

CONSOLIDATE: So for a PoD -- how about Louisburg has better defenses circa 1745, and as a result, isn't traded back for Madras 1748; if France can also avoid the loss of Arcot (1751) going into the Seven Years War, that pretty much sets up our OP right there, I'd think. Thoughts?

 

[Matteo]

So for a PoD -- how about Louisburg has better defenses circa 1745, and as a result, isn't traded back for Madras 1748; if France can also avoid the loss of Arcot (1751) going into the Seven Years War, that pretty much sets up our OP right there, I'd think. Thoughts?

POD for India requires not firing Dupleix from the french EIC.

India was the golden goose that literally made its european holder unbankruptable, although it is likely that France would not have exploited India in an as profitable way as Britain did.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

What about North America? If Louisburg doesn't fall in either the WoAS or 7YW, how much of New France can the British chip away? Or, if peace in Europe is signed by the start of 1759, do they make no gains at all?