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What is the smallest PoD that would lead to a fourth Super Bowl win under Tom Brady and Bill Belichick? AISI, there are three games that stand out:

2007 AFC Championship: Against the Indianapolis Colts. Patriots win this, victory against the Bears in the next game is pretty likely.

2008 Super Bowl: Against the New York Giants.

2012 Super Bowl: Again.

Which game works best, and what play in particular would need to go the other way? What are the effects of this change -- in football culture, pop culture, other butterflies, what have you? Would Brady be elevated to the same iconic status as Terry Bradshaw?
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