The challenge is to get an Assiniboia (independent or protectorate) with more than these borders. I'm also interested in a discussion of the consequences of it's existence and what it will look like over time; US-Canada relations, any Canadian Pacific Railway, and the consequences for Francophone and Amerindian North Americans.
Well considering that the NWCo. had fur trading posts all through the area historically establishes claim...although you could extend that slightly further east to the lakehead as well.
If the claims are recognized (which would require the US to recognize Metis as european I'm guessing) then border zone conflicts should be relatively tame excepting perhaps the Sioux who came from that area.
Having land access south of the main bedrock zone allows for easy rail development from the prairies east through the Rainy River country until you get to around Qeitico (sp?) Provincial Park in Ont. at which point you hit the rock again. But you're talking about a 1-200km strech of bedrock to build rail over to reach the Lakehead port versus the 700? or so OTL CP rail took....this means a much cheaper railway and potentially earlier start due to the ability to connect with lake frieghter traffic.
In regards to fracophones you might see more fracophone communities but I do not see that being enough to offset the large immigration wave late 1800's/early 1900's that turned most provinces english speaking dominant.
A more dominent Metis would probably spin off the following: greater plains Cree speaking population in Canada, earlier recognition of native history in land settlement _> fewer land claim disputes now, more Metis settlements (currently only found in Alberta), and potentially an increased federal pressence in the west. The last point is important as the West didn't start filing up until after the east had largely been settled and infrastructure/manufacturing started...an earlier Riel rebellion and/or large Anglo settlement able to communicate with the crown like Upper and Lower Canada should put greater emphasis on goverance of western lands in the early to mid 1800's.