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Lets assume, that before or with 1st January 1917 there's a peace treaty signed between the german empire and the russian empire. Conditions :
1 billion Goldmarks reparations (or however named) to be payed over a 10 years period Payment in "goods" as well as "assets" (i.e. mining/railway/port/land/etc. concessions) possible.
lithunia and congress-poland become a "reunited", independant" state (under acknowledged german "influenc") as a security "buffer"
(maybe "Duchy of Kurland" with its harbors Windau and Libau become "associated" to the german empire with Wilhelm II/the Hohenzollerns as its head-of-state)
Romania gets Bessarabia (with or without Odessa ?)
army garrisions in european russia (including Finland, the "rest" of the baltics, Ruthenia and the Ukraine) are to be reduced/limited
So far (at first) for the conditions regarding the "direct" german-russian points.
Further stuff like other Balkan- or Caucasus"regulations" are open to further discussion/personal thoughts.
Take your pick.
Also the question, if the paece is a peace between the CP and russia alone or part of a "general" peace arrangement including the other Entente-powers also ... like a "2nd Vienna Congress".
Take your pick.
With the Tsar still in "power" end of 1916, though his empire is at that point already short of domesctic explosion :
would it be possible, that without further war a transition of the autocratic tsarist regime, as even Nicholas II still executed it to a much more democratic (esp. a goverment responsible to the parliament for all of its actions) form of goverment of the russian empire (with the/a Tsra still at least nominal head of state) occurs ?