AHC: An independent Kazakhstan without a Bolshevik Revolution in Russia

CaliGuy

Banned
Here's an interesting AHC: With a PoD of 1850 or later, have an independent Kazakhstan be created by 2017 without a Bolshevik Revolution occurring in Russia beforehand.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, would a German victory in WWI followed by an even more crippling Brest-Litovsk-style peace settlement work for this?
 
Also, would a German victory in WWI followed by an even more crippling Brest-Litovsk-style peace settlement work for this?
It likely would. With Russia struggling to rebuild and having a strong threat to the West, I don't think they're going to focus on Central Asia. In fact, they're going to struggle to hold onto numerous breakaway regions including the Caucusus whether through incursions by the Ottomans or independence movements; Iran may also try to snatch back lost territory. Then there is Japan to their east. Russia is coming apart.
 
Whatever happens, assuming modern medicine takes a fairly similar rate of progression there will be a population boom among the Russian central Asians. A long time ago in 1978 or 1979 a science fiction writer (I think it may have been Norman Spinrad but it is a long time since I read it) looked at the official published demographic data of the then USSR and concluded from the demographic trends that, if the Russians didn't cut the 'stans loose, they would become an ethnic minority in the USSR by 2020. So it is probable that changing demographics would have ultimately dictated some form of independence whether from the Czars, Russian Republic or USSR.
 
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