Here's an interesting AHC: With a PoD of 1850 or later, have an independent Kazakhstan be created by 2017 without a Bolshevik Revolution occurring in Russia beforehand.
It likely would. With Russia struggling to rebuild and having a strong threat to the West, I don't think they're going to focus on Central Asia. In fact, they're going to struggle to hold onto numerous breakaway regions including the Caucusus whether through incursions by the Ottomans or independence movements; Iran may also try to snatch back lost territory. Then there is Japan to their east. Russia is coming apart.Also, would a German victory in WWI followed by an even more crippling Brest-Litovsk-style peace settlement work for this?