It would involve Spain not selling Florida to the United States and Florida gaining independence at the time most of the South American countries did or remaining a Spanish colony until the Spanish-American War when it would get steamrolled by the United States and granted Independence
It's hard to imagine an independent Florida in the early 19th century not getting absorbed by the US. Either Indian raids or harboring fugitive slaves would become a casus belli and without a guarantee of independence from the British there's really no way for them to win. It's also hard to imagine the US not taking it in an alternate Spanish-American War. Cuba was able to be independent because of the size of its population and separation from the mainland, but Florida would almost certainly be annexed.
That could be interesting, would it become a state or would it be like Puerto Rico just kept as a unincorporated territory?
On one hand it directly shares a border with the U.S,, on the other if it's stayed Spanish that long it would probable be considered too minority and Catholic to make a state.
Huguenot Colony is successful and draws protestants from throughout Latin europe (Spanish, French, Portuguese, etc) to supplement its population. Due to Florida being a nasty swamp with a bunch of non-english people and "the wrong sort of protestant," (as opposed to quebec which at least had the fur trade), Britain doesn't take it after the brought 7YW analog. The colony then breaks off in the French revolutions. America, not wanting a swamp either and having no reason to intervene without the Seminol Wars, doesn't bother conquering it
Before the 7YW, Spain maintained a practice of freeing (and arming) slaves who fled the English colonies to Florida. If this policy continues in a Spanish Florida that borders the US into the 19th century (and a lot of the Spanish population fled to Cuba during the British occupation after the 7YW--avoid that and the American annexation might not be so likely), Florida would be much more minority than IOTL.
OTOH, a Florida that serves as a Haiti-lite on the American border might just infuriate the southern states enough to trigger an early Spanish-American War.
The demographics aren't likely to remain after the invention of air conditioning in a scenario like that. You'll see the same kind of migration you did in the latter half of the 20th century. The one reason you might actually avoid statehood in that case would be if it becomes somewhat of a tax haven that the residents want to maintain. I still don't see it as likely though. There's a big difference between an island hundreds of miles away and somewhere that's a 4 hour drive from Atlanta.
Osman Aga
Banned
The Florida population must be like 200,000 Latin (Spanish, Portuguese, Italian, French) Catholic + non European Catholics in the sams size. Like free Afro-Americans in the same size. The US can't enslave free Africans in Florida and the size of it would make the US question whether it's worth to add so many Catholics, colored freedmen and natives.
Also, zero to none Anglo-Protestants by the 1810s.
Not a guarantee for independence but it helps.
America gains independence, but Great Britain keeps control of loyalist Georgia and South Carolina which ends up as a buffer zone for Spanish Florida.
Well, my TL works for that. Not the Florida we all know and love, but Florida nonetheless.
Spain realises no one wants to live in a swamp when they have the rest of the empire to settle in, they turn towards places with poor and/or oppressed catholics to recruit settlers from, Florida ends up being settled by Italians and Irish. When the English show up in Georgia, it heralds the start of a centuries long low intensity border war. Even if the USA forms despite the butterflies, they are not touching Florida with a 10 mile pole.
Deleted member 90949
American settlers overthrow Spanish rule in Florida and establish an independent republic à la Texas or California. Despite petitioning for annexation, the US refuses for political reasons regarding slave/free state balance and US-Spanish relations. In the end Florida remains a nominally independent client state.
They'd be going for it anyway since it's a natural target for filibusters and would have Southern politicians advocating its annexation. They pushed hard to annex Cuba OTL after all, so a lesser populated version of Cuba right on the borders of the South would be a tempting target.
Perhaps you could somehow have the ARW succeed but still have Britain hold onto the Floridas, then eventually have Florida become a dominion like Canada.
I think the best POD for an independent Florida is post 1900, after mass migration to Florida gives the state a stronger economic base.
You can accomplish that with any post 1900 America screw/ America breaks up scenario that you want.
You can accomplish that with any post 1900 America screw/ America breaks up scenario that you want.