An English monarchy in exile might work in the South (Maryland, Virginia, and the future Carolinas and Georgia), but not in the heavily Puritan New England colonies, which supported Cromwell.King Charles I, flees to his American colonies, set up the United Kingdoms of America, while Oliver Cromwell, is the Lord Protector of English Commonwealth.
After the death of Cromwell, an election started between the councillor of England to choose the new head of state.
I would like you to try to make the US a monarchy, and the UK a republic.
An English monarchy in exile might work in the South (Maryland, Virginia, and the future Carolinas and Georgia), but not in the heavily Puritan New England colonies, which supported Cromwell.
IOTL, Virginia and Maryland were some of the colonies that refused to recognize Cromwell until he sent over troops. New England was the reverse, with the New England colonies sending troops to England to fight on behalf of Cromwell and the Roundheads. If Cromwell as willing to send troops to secure the monarchist Southern colonies, why wouldn't he defend the Puritan New England colonies? Besides, at this point, Charles has bigger problems.But Cromwell will not send troops to New England, when he is fearing his own stability in England, while Charles will be more then happy to wage war against the Puritans who deny his god given right.
True, New York is still Dutch and Virginia can't actually conquer New England. They're probably still going to have problems defending themselves from Cromwell's England.More to the point, New England has its own militia, and Virginia's ability to conquer the place is questionable at best. Virginia doesn't even have a land border and can't get there without going through Dutch territory, and has enough problems with Maryland's puritan settlers.
Perhaps two failures? There is no Independence in North America, and the Royal Navy looses a decisive battle against Napoleon? I'm not sure either of those is highly likely though, especially the second one.