AHC: American Embargo on Japan After 9/18/31

I submit to the Board:

America moved to cripple Japan's wartime economy in September of 1940, prompting Japan to try for one great throw of the dice. Could America's embargo in response to Japanese expansionism be moved up to the period between the invasion of Manchuria (81 years ago today) and the assault on China proper (on 7/7/1937)?

The Chinese are still extremely angry about this, by the way.

On reflection the above sentence is an enormous understatement.

So where to start? To my mind you would need at least two ATL figures. A very public string of Japanese atrocities must make front pages in the US, which would demand a famous American journalist sneaking around, probably actual American deaths, and perhaps even worse behavior from the Japanese than OTL. Even then, I'd guess - not knowing the details - that someone would have to be thinking very differently in the Roosevelt administration. Congressional support might well be required, which would make the entire enterprise even more difficult.

So what say you? Could it be done? How?

And of course, what effects would this have? Would the Japanese be as able to digest Manchuria with essential economic and war materiel drastically lacking? Would they even get the chance with China more than happy to fight on now there's some chance of winning? Would Japan attack America early, and risk the wrath of unoccupied Europe?
 
No.

The us response was measured. Each increase in japanese aggression was matched by an increased response. Going to full sanctions right off the bat would have meant war, and no one in the west wanted a major war until their noses were well and truly rubbed in the mess. Besides, in 1931, the us wasnt in any kind of shape to conduct a major war, especially not across the pacific.

Could the us response have been ratchetted up significantly after the Panay incident? Yes, but even then the us backed off, partly because there wasnt going to be support in congress for strong action.
 
No.
Besides, in 1931, the us wasnt in any kind of shape to conduct a major war, especially not across the pacific.

This is very true, the USA of 19301 and the USA of ten years later were two very different beasts. The former was dealing with a lot of crap.
 
No.

The us response was measured. Each increase in japanese aggression was matched by an increased response. Going to full sanctions right off the bat would have meant war, and no one in the west wanted a major war until their noses were well and truly rubbed in the mess. Besides, in 1931, the us wasnt in any kind of shape to conduct a major war, especially not across the pacific.

Could the us response have been ratchetted up significantly after the Panay incident? Yes, but even then the us backed off, partly because there wasnt going to be support in congress for strong action.

Okay then. That's a beginning.

What were these? I'm aware of the League of Nations attempt to deal with Manchuria, but that was nothing to do with the US. What was the measured response? Other than that, I'm only aware of the Japanese apology after the Panay and the actual embargo. Were there other American attempts to address the situation? I'll be cruising Wikipedia, but your insight would be great.

Could any of the American responses have occurred earlier, given the right POD? Could the 1937 response have occurred in 1935? The September 1940 embargo have begun in March 1940?

And how, exactly? Is there anything the Japanese could plausibly have done that would shift American policy earlier? What if there'd been two American ships attacked on the Yangtze, not just the Panay? What if there'd been an equivalent incident during the invasion of Manchuria - might the response to the Panay have been harsher?

Or is this something that goes too much against the current, requiring a much earlier divergence? Would a larger Chinese American community move things in the right direction, or a better integrated one?
 

Cook

Banned
What were these? I'm aware of the League of Nations attempt to deal with Manchuria, but that was nothing to do with the US.
Despite not being a member of the League, the United States was still active diplomaticly in international affairs and co-ordinated with the League, particularly with regard to events in the Far East; the Lytton Commision, established to report to the League of Nations as to events in Manchuria in 1931 was made up of the English chairman of the commitee Lord Lytton, American General McCoy, German diplomat Schnee, Italian diplomat Count Aldrovandi-Marescotti and French General Claudel.

I recall there being a trade agreement with Japan from the 1920s that expired in the late 1930s, but I cannot remember the details.
 
Despite not being a member of the League, the United States was still active diplomaticly in international affairs and co-ordinated with the League, particularly with regard to events in the Far East; the Lytton Commision, established to report to the League of Nations as to events in Manchuria in 1931 was made up of the English chairman of the commitee Lord Lytton, American General McCoy, German diplomat Schnee, Italian diplomat Count Aldrovandi-Marescotti and French General Claudel.

I recall there being a trade agreement with Japan from the 1920s that expired in the late 1930s, but I cannot remember the details.

Alright. I'll have to look up the Lytton Commision then. I wonder if their report is available somewhere on the webway.
 
Well, I know Wikipedia isn't a great source, but the militarist junior officers who assassinated Prime Minister Inukai Tsuyoshi in 1932 had intended to also kill Charlie Chaplin and create a casus belli with the United States.

Well, I can't very well not use that, now can I?

That is just mind-breakingly incredible. I normally disapprove of references to insanity in describing the bizarre optimism of the Axis, but this is really pushing it.

Incidentally, I checked the Wikipedia source on Google Books and it is a real thing. The author is apparently quite reputable too. I still want to lay hands on her source if I can, but for now that is my POD.

The Assassination of Charlie Chaplin. Wow.

First order of business: I need to know more about this assassination.
 
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