AHC: American elections after Kerry victory in 2004
- Thread starter Taunay
- Start date
Very Interesting, we would have a mostly Democratic 2010s and an entirely Democratic 2020s
Interesting, although Hillary would be 81 by the end of her presidency
I don't know if it's plausible for one party to be in the White House for 16 years anymore.
Very good point. I think we've reached a point where the maximum that one party can stay in the White House is 12 years, and that's at the price of being defeated in a landslide in the 4th election (i.e. 1992), so I personally would wager that if the Kerry government (Excluding its economic curse) becomes nostalgic enough in a 2009-2013 Romney/McCain/Huckabee/Some Republican, the Democrats could win 2012, 2016 and if they handle the pandemic well, 2020. BUT they would've suffered a heavy defeat at the 2024 Election if that happened
In hindsight, could W Bush have made a comeback in 2008? I assumed in my TL that a one-term President would be automatically tainted as a loser, but Trump may get away with it. If W Bush wins the popular vote or at least the election is very close, he could have a strong case for a comeback. Oddly, if he was re-elected his legacy would likely be even worse because he didn't do that much harm in his OTL second term, while botching the GFC response and potentially causing more foreign policy harm would make his presidency even more harmful. I'm not saying this would definitely happen, my guess is people would still write off the Bushes as losers, but it's an interesting possibility to consider.
True, another Bush victory would indeed be very intereting. A disastrous 2009-2013 term for Bush would definitely mean that Jeb! wouldn't even think about running for President
Not convinced that the voters would go twelve years straight with the Democrats there.
Yeah, it's pretty hard for a party to win 3 presidential elections consecutively
With politics increasingly polarizing during the 2000s I imagine we would see a reaction to a Kerry term similar, though likely not to the same extent, as the conservative reaction to Obama in his first term. Having said that, I don't find it far fetched to believe that McCain would have a harder time winning the nomination TTL 2008 than in OTL. I think its likely that someone more reactionary would perform well, especially if Romney and McCain are both still splitting the more "establishment" vote. Perhaps Huckabee?
True, the late 2000s were a prime time for old school Evangelical fundamentalism
So maybe with Kerry winning in 2004 we see sizable Republican gains in 2006 of 20ish seats in the house, and probably a wash in the senate. Turning a dem midterm into a R midterm radically changes things, but I can't imagine it being enough for Santorum to win his race. Rs probably lose PA, but they might take NJ and have an outside shot at MD (in a D+8 wave both were 9-10 point wins for dems so its not unlikely that in an R+4-5 (or maybe more) environment that Republicans can win those seats) which would put the senate at a 1 seat gain for Rs. I would also say that I think this scenario prevents a lot of the losses Rs saw with hispanic voter between 2004 and 2008, it wouldn't surprise me ITTL if the hispanic vote stays around 40-45% for Rs although it would probably be even higher in Republican landslide years like 2008 should be.
So coming into 2008 Republicans have 56 senate seats and somewhere around 250 in the house. Lets say Huckabee does win the nomination. Its hard to predict the presidential election here, because Huckabee is very likely going to win significantly, but also his evangelical christian conservatism is definitely going to hurt him in some states Republicans could otherwise win in a 2008 R landslide scenario. Do voters in states like NH, NM, OR, NJ, and MI just swallow the downside of Huckabee and vote for him anyway because they're so fed up with Kerry, do they decide Huckabee is just too much and vote for Kerry, or do they just stay home? Its honestly hard to say, and I think it depends on how Huckabee campaigns and how he presents himself.
As for the senate elections in 2008, I think Republicans hold AK, CO, MN, NH, NC, and OR. They might also hold NM if Domenici runs again. This means only VA goes democrat. In addition, I think Republicans could potentially flip several seats (some of which weren't even competitive OTL) such as AR, LA, and maybe even IA. lets say Rs win 2/3 of those potential flips, that would put them at 57 senate seats if im doing my math right. Not enough to break a filibuster on their own, but likely enough to pass most of whatever they want to considering that a lot of social issues still had conservative democrats at the time (on things like gay marriage and flag burning and that type of stuff). Potentially there could be another 5-10 seat gain in the house, but Republicans would surely be almost maxed out there.
Oh absolutely. There would be a massive blue wave in 2010. It depends on how Huckabee term looks for 2012, its very possible he wins a second term, but anything could happen.