AHC: Alternate Magyar migrations

[cmakk1012]

The Abbasids of the late 9th century were going through a period of serious turmoil, which the Magyars could exploit through offering a protection treaty to the Caliph or forming a convenient alliance with the Qarmatians and Kharijites.

Have them invade it during the mid 9th century when the Abbasids are entangled in the Anarchy at Samarra.

Okay then, the Magyars have a surprisingly easy “in” to Mesopotamia. I don’t see the famously raid-loving Magyars as going for a diplomatic option here, so I suspect that we get a Sack of Baghdad four hundred years early.

But what happens afterward? I could see the Magyars back or ally with the Kharijites/Qarmatians/some other alternative to the Caliphate, but do they become the new Caliphs? Do the Magyars? If the Magyars have been sitting in Armenia/Caucasia for a few decades, are some Christian? How does that affect the aftermath?

 

[TruthfulPanda]

After Bagdad is sacked the Arabs unite. The Magyars are soon being torn a new one and are pushed back against the mountains. The Armenians - over whom the Magyars had ridden roughshod on their way to richer pickings in the South - make them an offer they cannot refuse.
"Convert and be saved, or die by our and Arab sword".

 

[Carp]

How would they manage to preserve "horse culture" in the area void of the steppes?

Nomadic empire hardly can be based in the Caucasus because mountains are not very good for breeding a lot of horses.

I make no claims as to the plausibility of the Magyars or anyone else settling in Armenia, but the idea that the Armenian plateau - a horse breeding capital of the ancient world - was "not very good for breeding a lot of horses" is demonstrably untrue. Xenophon and Strabo both lauded the quality of Armenian horses, with the latter claiming that the Satrap of Armenia shipped 20,000 colts to the Persian king every year. The ancient Armenian military was based on the effectiveness of its cavalry and the high quality of its native warhorses, and Armenian cavalry maintained a very high status in the service of Persia and other neighboring states, a tradition which continued into the Byzantine era.

 

[cmakk1012]

After Bagdad is sacked the Arabs unite. The Magyars are soon being torn a new one and are pushed back against the mountains. The Armenians - over whom the Magyars had ridden roughshod on their way to richer pickings in the South - make them an offer they cannot refuse.
"Convert and be saved, or die by our and Arab sword".

Will the Arabs unite if the Magyars were working with one of the divergent Arab factions?

On the other hand, an Armenian rebellion starting up and forcing the Magyars to convert sounds plausible. If the Arabs are still marching on Artashat or wherever, though, they might appeal to Constantinople for help as well. Arab-Byzantine War Round Whatever, start!

 

[SeaCambrian]

Okay then, the Magyars have a surprisingly easy “in” to Mesopotamia. I don’t see the famously raid-loving Magyars as going for a diplomatic option here, so I suspect that we get a Sack of Baghdad four hundred years early.

But what happens afterward? I could see the Magyars back or ally with the Kharijites/Qarmatians/some other alternative to the Caliphate, but do they become the new Caliphs? Do the Magyars? If the Magyars have been sitting in Armenia/Caucasia for a few decades, are some Christian? How does that affect the aftermath?

After Bagdad is sacked the Arabs unite. The Magyars are soon being torn a new one and are pushed back against the mountains. The Armenians - over whom the Magyars had ridden roughshod on their way to richer pickings in the South - make them an offer they cannot refuse.
"Convert and be saved, or die by our and Arab sword".

Well, it would take a decade or so for the Magyars to build up their power base in the Armenian Highlands to the point where they could threaten Baghdad. By this time, the Abbasids would probably make diplomatic overtures seeking to recruit the fierce nomadic warriors as Islamized auxiliaries, as they did with the Turkic tribes.

In that situation I'd expect the Magyars to convert to Islam, and become yet another nominal vassal of the Abbasid Caliphate, like the Tulunids, Buyids, Saffarids, and Ghaznavids -- who, despite being vassals, were the true factions in power over the Caliphate and fought over its legacy for their own strategic interests. The Magyars might indeed march into Baghdad... as "Mu'izz al-Dawla" ("Fortifier of the State") like the Buyids did, nominal protectors who rather formed their own empire.

There is another option however. Magyar auxiliaries, if loyal enough to the Abbasid Caliph due to their lack of connections and vulnerable political position, could actually provide an edge in favor of Baghdad, and serve as enforcers of Abbasid rule against the disloyal vassals. Of course, if the Magyars occupy this role for too long, they will become too prestigious and powerful and try to carve out their own states as the Turkic ghilman. It's all a delicate balancing act for the Abbasids, using the new faction to their advantage without allowing them a chance to rebel.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

I had them settle in Azerbaijan/Armenia in my TL. Seemed like a fun idea.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

I had them settle in Azerbaijan/Armenia in my TL. Seemed like a fun idea.

What's the TL title?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

What's the TL title?

The Panther: A Medieval Slovene Kingdom TL
I only have one

 

[Byzantion]

Could the Magyars have migrated somewhere other than the Carpathian Basin/Pannonian Plain?

On one hand, the Carpathian Basin is the westernmost extension of the Eurasian steppe, which would imply that it was the most pragmatic place for the Magyars to settle.

On the other hand, there's plenty of flat land in Europe and the Huns got to northern Gaul, let alone the Magyars' own raids as far as Spain.

Magyars go east and conquer Manchuria ending up as dynasty in the throne of China. Or they contact Mongolian tribes forming a confederation. Maybe they conquer Anatolia
first and become a mayor player.

 

[Miguel Lanius]

Magyars go east and conquer Manchuria ending up as dynasty in the throne of China. Or they contact Mongolian tribes forming a confederation. Maybe they conquer Anatolia
first and become a mayor player.

But do they convert to the Church of the East? Its a law here that any PoD during a certain period results in large amounts of random people becoming Nestorians.

 

[cmakk1012]

But do they convert to the Church of the East? Its a law here that any PoD during a certain period results in large amounts of random people becoming Nestorians.

Also, the Romans resurge completely and conquer Egypt and the Levant, right? That’s the second law

 

[SeaCambrian]

Also, the Romans resurge completely and conquer Egypt and the Levant, right? That’s the second law

To be honest, a Byzantine resurgence is quite plausible in this period.

The Abbasids were in dire shape. This was their Crisis of the Third Century (and ironically, it actually was the 3rd century A.H.)

 

[cmakk1012]

To be honest, a Byzantine resurgence is quite plausible in this period.

The Abbasids were in dire shape. This was their literal Crisis of the Third Century (because it was the Third Century A.H.)

The Byzantines did resurge towards Syria IOTL in this era, right? I still don’t think that would mean they could re-establish the empire at the start of Heraclius’ reign, though—if nothing else an independent Egyptian regime could drive them out.

 

[SeaCambrian]

The Byzantines did resurge towards Syria IOTL in this era, right? I still don’t think that would mean they could re-establish the empire at the start of Heraclius’ reign, though—if nothing else an independent Egyptian regime could drive them out.

Yeah, the Byzantines invaded the Mashriq multiple times, with the peak being John I Tzimiskes' invasion, conquering all of Syria and Upper Mesopotamia. Yet, the Byzantines being the Byzantines, Tzimiskes was assassinated upon his return to Constantinople (despite having saved the empire against a Russo-Viking-Bulgar invasion just a few years prior).

Then Basil II takes power and after finishing off the civil war in Anatolia, he rather pragmatically decides to create defensible borders in the east instead of going for an ambitious lightning campaign in the east. The former was more sensible, but he probably could have tried the latter if he were more typical of Byzantine leaders.

Politically there are a lot of obstacles to a Byzantine resurgence. But the Byzantine "war machine" if you will certainly would have been theoretically capable of such expansion, if diplomatic and political factors did align. Such expansion might have been possible if Tzimiskes survived, probably by discovering the plots of Basil Lekapenos (his assassin, who was successfully banished by Basil II).

...Of course, I suppose one could argue a similar thing for the Abbasids, who certainly had the economic base to reconquer their former lands, but were politically faced with too many enemies on all sides. Frankly, though, the Abbasids have a decent, if slim chance too if they had a couple more soldier-Caliphs after al-Muktafi. I think a plausible TL could be created with either a Byzantine resurgence, an Abbasid resurgence, or seeming paradoxically, both -- they were close trading partners and for the most part, shared mutual enemies.

 

[Miguel Lanius]

So are you telling me that we can use a bunch of Magyars in the Middle East to cause a Roman Resurgence AND to make lots of random people convert to the Church of the East?

The Abbassids must have been in bad shape in the period.

 

[SeaCambrian]

So are you telling me that we can use a bunch of Magyars in the Middle East to cause a Roman Resurgence AND to make lots of random people convert to the Church of the East?

The Abbassids must have been in bad shape in the period.

Well my Byzantine suggestion above is kind of a tangent and not necessarily relying on the alternate Magyar migration scenario. That being said, a Magyar migration into Armenia could still indirectly help out the Byzantines: first, the creation of a new state in the region would fragment the Hamdanids and divide the attentions of Sayf al-Dawla, emir of Aleppo who stopped the mid-10th century Byzantine invasions; second, Magyars not settling Pannonia leaves Bulgarian rule intact in the Carpathian Basin, which while counterintuitive since Bulgaria was an enemy of the Byzantines, also means that the Kievan Rus' invasion of Bulgaria may last longer, possibly allowing the Byzantines to strike from the south while both are distracted.

I don't it's very likely that the Magyars would convert to the Church of the East though -- based on the precedent of the Turks, the Magyars would likely serve first as mercenaries, then convert to Islam and pledge nominal allegiance to the Abbasid Caliph, de facto becoming an independent state (let's say the "Arbadid Emirate" after the house of Árpád) with its own ruling dynasty and territorial ambitions.

 

[Flashman]

I find interesting the idea they defeat the Bulgarians, could they replace them even?

They can't really settle in Germany, France, Italy or Iberia, it really wouldn't work I think. Even in Bulgaria or Romania their settlement would end up probably nto being as ethnically dominant as they were IOTL.

They certainly could settle in Western Europe as the Alans did in Frisia, but they would almost certainly end up assimilated.