AHC: Allied Japan, Axis China

Britain comes to the defense of the Japanese during the Versailles treaty? Perhaps not obtaining the equal clause because of American interference but it is still a good show of support for the Anglo-Japanese Alliance.

(Also overt support for the Japanese to keep the 'secured' White Russian territory to weaken the Reds? Perhaps a cooling between UK-US relations? Churchill becoming PM in the late 20s? Until the 30s he hated the US with a passion so it isn't unlikely for him to take an antagonistic stance towards the United States)
 

thaddeus

Donor
to have a non-Axis Japan seems relatively easy, for Germany the commercial benefits of China were much greater and Japan was a reluctant ally at least until the defeat of France.

to have an Allied Japan seems very difficult, possibly a continued German-Soviet cooperation that is supporting China or the Nazi regime is able to enlist Spain and Vichy France in the Axis and China joins the prospective "bandwagon" also?
 
I think retaining Anglo-Japanese alliance is a easiest POD. China, especially in 1920s had high anti-British sentiment. It was ( as far as I remember) only Japanese invasion that brought Britain and China together. But due to alliance of these two, China would likely see both of Japan and Britain as just imperialist powers, and jump on the German side which they see as a good military partner capable of fending off Japan and Britain. (Sino-German cooperation would expand into military alliance)
When Germany starts war, China also acts in order to regain what they lost ever since the Opium War.
 
to have a non-Axis Japan seems relatively easy, for Germany the commercial benefits of China were much greater and Japan was a reluctant ally at least until the defeat of France.

to have an Allied Japan seems very difficult, possibly a continued German-Soviet cooperation that is supporting China or the Nazi regime is able to enlist Spain and Vichy France in the Axis and China joins the prospective "bandwagon" also?
It’s not like the KMT was hostile to “fascist-lite” ideologies and the Blue Shirts were outright inspired by Mussolini. Germany continuing to defend her interests in China seems the most straightforward way to alienate Japan from the Axis, though as you say straight up Allied is a much harder lift without a much earlier PoD
 

thaddeus

Donor
to have a non-Axis Japan seems relatively easy, for Germany the commercial benefits of China were much greater and Japan was a reluctant ally at least until the defeat of France.

to have an Allied Japan seems very difficult, possibly a continued German-Soviet cooperation that is supporting China or the Nazi regime is able to enlist Spain and Vichy France in the Axis and China joins the prospective "bandwagon" also?

It’s not like the KMT was hostile to “fascist-lite” ideologies and the Blue Shirts were outright inspired by Mussolini. Germany continuing to defend her interests in China seems the most straightforward way to alienate Japan from the Axis, though as you say straight up Allied is a much harder lift without a much earlier PoD

think you need some nightmare scenario of an Axis USSR or a defeated USSR, or Germany manages to form a Fascist clique in the Med, with Italy, Vichy France, Spain, and even Portugal and Greece?

some dire need for the US/UK to keep Japan (and its navy) out of the war, moreso than for them to participate?
 
I was thinking Japan does not have imperial ambitions to not let the Entente Powers of WWI be suspicious of it. Meaning the probably would need to keep Korea independent at some point. Oh and yes, keep the Ango-Japanese alliance intact.
 

thaddeus

Donor
think you need some nightmare scenario of an Axis USSR or a defeated USSR, or Germany manages to form a Fascist clique in the Med, with Italy, Vichy France, Spain, and even Portugal and Greece?

some dire need for the US/UK to keep Japan (and its navy) out of the war, moreso than for them to participate?

To get Japan in the Allies, IDK the limits of Soviet-Japanese cooperation, it is at least not impossible Japan could seek better relations with the Soviets, leveraging the German invasion in 1941? as it was they remained scrupulously neutral, if they went over to fully backing the Soviets what could they gain? oil, help in China?
 
I was thinking Japan does not have imperial ambitions to not let the Entente Powers of WWI be suspicious of it. Meaning the probably would need to keep Korea independent at some point. Oh and yes, keep the Ango-Japanese alliance intact.
Tbf just Japan not fully annexing Korea and instead just having a puppet while convincing the other powers that Korea's theirs during the interwar period would be great.
 
To get Japan in the Allies, IDK the limits of Soviet-Japanese cooperation, it is at least not impossible Japan could seek better relations with the Soviets, leveraging the German invasion in 1941? as it was they remained scrupulously neutral, if they went over to fully backing the Soviets what could they gain? oil, help in China?
This is a really interesting idea to me. If Sino-German relations are formalized into an alliance then Japan becomes THE main ally of the USSR when the Germans inevitably invade the USSR. Japan might find a way past the American embargo, receiving oil shipments from the Soviet Union. On that point, how would this alliance complicate American involvement in WW2?
I was thinking Japan does not have imperial ambitions to not let the Entente Powers of WWI be suspicious of it. Meaning the probably would need to keep Korea independent at some point. Oh and yes, keep the Ango-Japanese alliance intact.
I agree with earlier points that maybe having Churchill take power earlier (late 20s, early 30s) and extending an olive branch to the Japanese is a safe bet. This might have the added bonus of further pushing the Chinese into the German camp, seeking a check on the Anglo-Japanese.
 
Your mission is simple with a POD after 1918 give us an Allied Japan and an Axis China in an alt-WW2.
to have an Allied Japan seems very difficult, possibly a continued German-Soviet cooperation that is supporting China or the Nazi regime is able to enlist Spain and Vichy France in the Axis and China joins the prospective "bandwagon" also?
This TL has what OP is looking for, via the bolded and a different Battle of Khalkin Gol: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...finished-tl-of-the-berlin-moscow-axis.461256/
 
China would not join Germnay because it has no reason to, since their main enemy is Japan and still is in this scenario and Germany can provide no real assisance against Japan due to British naval blockades and Japanese naval dominance there is no reason for them to ally to eachother. It would also cause Britain ,France and later the Soviets to be at war with China without providing the Chinese any real gains.

Now you might think that China has conflicts with France and Britain due to Hong Kong and basically the last century of Chinese history. That is true, but China at this time was very poor and had just been through civil war and on top of that was focused on fighting Japan who wanted to fully conquer their nation and enslave their people, compared to the western powers who only wanted to exlpoit it economically. So there would be no reason to attack the west at this time.

The only way to get a scenario like that would be to get the Qing to reform and fix their country in the late 1800s at the latest, they could join an alt WW2 in that scenario as they might at least think themselves strong enough to. This would probably cause Japan to join the allies to take advantage of this situation to get land from China.
 
We have discussed this idea before and it all comes down to the issues between Japan and the US. You need a RADICALLY different Japan to not piss off the US, otherwise GB gets to pick between the US or Japan, and only a moron would choose Japan over the US in the 20-40s.
 
A fair point - does anyone know of any good sources on US-Japan tensions or Japan in the 1930s? I'm considering writing a TL on some of the ideas discussed here.
 

thaddeus

Donor
To get Japan in the Allies, IDK the limits of Soviet-Japanese cooperation, it is at least not impossible Japan could seek better relations with the Soviets, leveraging the German invasion in 1941? as it was they remained scrupulously neutral, if they went over to fully backing the Soviets what could they gain? oil, help in China?

This is a really interesting idea to me. If Sino-German relations are formalized into an alliance then Japan becomes THE main ally of the USSR when the Germans inevitably invade the USSR. Japan might find a way past the American embargo, receiving oil shipments from the Soviet Union. On that point, how would this alliance complicate American involvement in WW2?

the oil embargo followed the Japanese occupation of Indochina, that might not happen at all here, and certainly not on the historical timeline. (and there could be oil from the Soviets too)

IDK how plausible expanded Soviet-Japanese cooperation would be, I can imagine Stalin would like an ally not generally aligned with the US/UK.
 
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