AHC: Allied Japan Axis China

kernals12

Banned
With a POD between 1913 and 1937 have China and Japan's positions in World War 2 flipped. The most obvious way to do this would be for Democracy in Japan to somehow survive past Taisho's death. Would the war be longer or shorter? And what impacts do you see after the war ends?
 
With a POD between 1913 and 1937 have China and Japan's positions in World War 2 flipped. The most obvious way to do this would be for Democracy in Japan to somehow survive past Taisho's death. Would the war be longer or shorter? And what impacts do you see after the war ends?
Korea stays under japanese control for start.
 

Bob_Semple

Banned
Naval doctrines Post war will be very different without the Pacific War acting as a sort of proving grounds for carriers.

Carriers will still be around, as many nations were developing them pre-war, however, it's unlikely that fleets will be built around them, at least in the immediate post war period.

No Kim Jong Un sounds nice.

I could see Korea acting as a Cold War flash point in the form of Communist rebels being supported by the Soviets and maybe an alt-PRC.

I could easily see Korea being a major headache for the Americans, who will try to convince the Japanese to give the Koreans home rule in the form of a Japanese backed Alt-Republic of Korea.

As for China, I could easily see Manchuguo being declared the Chinese Empire restored and ruling North Eastern China, however, lacking any real legitimacy as being seen as a Japanese-American puppet. I could easily see it becoming Vietnam writ large.
 
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kernals12

Banned
The war with China would be interesting, China has a lot more people than Japan but it's doubtful Chiang Kai-Shek could solicit the same loyalty as Hirohito.
 
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The war with China would be interesting, China has a lot more people than Japan but it's double Chiang Kai-Shek could solicit the same loyalty as Hirohito.

Well, if the no Washington Naval Treaty POD holds and the Anglo-Japanese Alliance remains intact, I doubt that the Japanese will have as big an urge to go to war against China like OTL.

I'd expect for China and Japan to merely go into an intense staring contest while their respective allies duke it out in Europe, while also keeping an eye north on the Soviet wildcard.
 

kernals12

Banned
Well, if the no Washington Naval Treaty POD holds and the Anglo-Japanese Alliance remains intact, I doubt that the Japanese will have as big an urge to go to war against China like OTL.

I'd expect for China and Japan to merely go into an intense staring contest while their respective allies duke it out in Europe.
I was expecting that China would attack Japan.
 
If China ever ends its civil war and get their act together. Unfortunately, there's still too much Nazi and Western (for the KMT) and Soviet (for the Communists) shenanigans going on in China.
 

Kaze

Banned
I tried it out in Hearts of Iron, it was nearly impossible. I managed to use the save-point time-machine to change the outcome often in order to win. I should play it out in the next update.
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There are many problems outside the game ---

1. The problem comes is that China's navy after the Sino-Japanese War ceased to exist as viable.

2. The German influence in the Chinese government was a minor effort. It would take more effort to change them along that lines. As for the Chinese Civil War - a move to fascism might have given the KMT the chance to break the Communists, but I doubt it.

3. As per #1 - there would be no chance of a sea-war, so there would have to be a land-war. Where-on the Chinese Troops would have to cross into Manchuria and into Korea - it would be a blood-bath. Such a bloodbath might lead to the establishment of a Kim in Northern Korea by a Soviet Army.

4. Japanese government was either going to go Communist or Fascist, Democracy would have died on the branch in the force of a war. As for joining the Allies, it would be difficult for a communist Japan to join the Allies - it was nearly ASB for the Soviet Union to join the Allied Effort.
 
I'll recycle an old post of mine on why it's hard to see the Nazis ultimately siding with China over Japan:

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There is an interesting chapter entitled "Falling Between two stools: Nazi Germany's East Asian Policy" in Christian Leitz, *Nazi Foreign Policy, 1933-1941: The Road to Global War* (2004) where he notes that the Third Reich's originally friendly relations with China had their roots in the Weimar Republic. Both Germany and China (even though the latter was nominally one of the victors) considered themselves treated unfairly by the peace settlement. As early as 1921 the Chinese Republic reestablished diplomatic relations with Germany, and "Influential groups among Germany's business community, but also within the Reichswehr and the Foreign Ministry, both advocated and actively pursued an improvement of Germany's relationship to China. In the military sphere, this resulted in the highly controversial dispatch of German military advisers to Nanking in 1928, while in the economic field, German-Chinese trade relations expanded even during the Depression with a growing number of German companies establishing a presence in the country. From seventh place among Germany's export markets in 1929, China was to rise to third place seven years later." (p. 127) Japan, OTOH, was seen as a party to the oppressive Versailles Treaty (and as late as the early 1930s Japan failed to provide any support for the efforts of the Papen and Schleicher governments to reduce the military restrictions imposed on Germany by that treaty). German industrialists also complained about Japanese competition, Japanese copying of German goods, etc.

For the first few years of the Third Reich, Hitler showed little interest in Far Eastern affairs, and the Foreign Ministry, headed by Neurath, tried to maintain a "balanced" policy toward China and Japan. (For a short period in the mid-1930s the chief military adviser to Chiang Kai-shek was none other than Gerneral Hans von Seeckt, one of the Reichswehr's leading officers during the 1920's.) Ribbentrop was the man who made the most strenuous efforts (even before he became Foreign Minister) to redirect the focus of German Far Eastern policy away from China and toward Japan, with whom he sought a real military alliance, not just the largely propagandistic Anti-Comintern Pact.

So the question is: Without Ribbentrop, would Hitler still have changed Germany to a pro-Japanese orientation as he did after the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War and especially from 1938 onward? (In 1938, the German ambassador was recalled from Peking and German representation was reduced to the level of chargé d'affaires; Manchukuo was officially recognized; and most important, German military advisers were recalled--although a small number resisted Nazi pressure and remained.) I think the answer is Yes, because once China lost most of her largest cities to Japan it was apparent that she could not do much for Germany economically. Moreover, she was obviously too weak--fighting for her own survival--to be of any military assistance. Japan, OTOH, was in a position to exert pressure on the Soviet Union (and to some extent on Britain and France through their colonies in the Far East) in peacetime and perhaps to be a German ally in case of war. Also, "The growing realisation that Britain would not conveniently fall into the position of ally 'alloted' it by Hitler reduced his concerns about antagonising the British when endorsing Japan's aggression in Asia." (p. 136)

As Leitz notes, even after 1938 German-Chinese relations--even military relations--did not completely cease. For example, arms shipments were gradually curtailed after November 1937, but not stopped entirely: "For a time, and against Ribbentrop's express wishes, Goering remained clearly too keen to let the lucrative war material trade with China expire. When Goering finally ordered the cessation of arms exports to China in April 1938, contracts concluded prior to August 1937 were exempted...As late as 15 October 1939 Goering indirectly acknowledged that such exports had not yet ceased when he told Sven Hedin that 'we are not at all interested in the China of Chiang Kai-shek. We have furnished it with war materiel but are now going to stop these supplies.'" (p. 135) Furthermore, Germany did not break all diplomatic relations with Chiang's government until 2 July 1941. (p. 134)

So Germany did not entirely eliminate relations with China, but there is no doubt that from 1938 on her basic orientation was toward Japan, and in view of the disparity in power between Japan and China, it is hard for me to see Hitler deciding otherwise, even without Ribbentrop. The only POD would be a much stronger China and weaker Japan, and that is not something which German policy in the 1930's would be able to bring about.
 
As for China, I could easily see Manchuguo being declared the Chinese Empire restored and ruling North Eastern China, however, lacking any real legitimacy as being seen as a Japanese-American puppet. I could easily see it becoming Vietnam writ large.
Or KMT leftists/the leaders of the China Democracy League being the core of the government of a "reformed" Republic of China.
 
With a POD between 1913 and 1937 have China and Japan's positions in World War 2 flipped. The most obvious way to do this would be for Democracy in Japan to somehow survive past Taisho's death. Would the war be longer or shorter? And what impacts do you see after the war ends?

Shorter war. Significant cargo shipping is released to use elsewhere. A US amphib fleet sufficient to support corps operations in 1942 & a army size operation in 1943 is available for use elsewhere. Savings in aid force deployments in 1942/43 & naval forces. All that allows earlier operations vs the Axis. ie: Op GYMNAST in the summer of 1942 vs TORCH in the autumn. Operations directly vs Italy, the Balkans or elsewhere before the end of 1942. Larger scale operations in Europe earlier in 1943.

Post war it leaves Japanese/Chinese tensions unresolved.
 

Deleted member 1487

With a POD between 1913 and 1937 have China and Japan's positions in World War 2 flipped. The most obvious way to do this would be for Democracy in Japan to somehow survive past Taisho's death. Would the war be longer or shorter? And what impacts do you see after the war ends?
Not sure really. China allied to Germany was possible if you have a loose definition of allied, but Japan in the Allies is much tougher. I guess you could have them get treated better during the ToV so they don't feel like ending the alliance with Britain, but US-British relations were always more important than British-Japanese relations post-WW1, so given US-Japanese tensions it is going to be real hard to square that circle unless WW1 simply does not happen.
 
Much of the problem with US/Japanese relations was due to their treatment of subject peoples. Korea, Manchukuo, and especially later when they invaded northern China, reports from diplomats and missionaries were sent home. Change THAT, somehow, and US/Japanese relations will be viewed more positively. It isn't that the Japanese have colonies, its that they were so damnably brutal in them, and people knew it. Remove that stigma, and there is less perceived reason for the US to need more naval forces in the Pacific.
Would this butterfly the WNT? Maybe, maybe not. But it would make it easier for the Japanese to be seen as counterbalancing the Soviets, who are probably going to still be supplying CKS and the KMT, as they are against the Japanese.
 
Much of the problem with US/Japanese relations was due to their treatment of subject peoples. Korea, Manchukuo, and especially later when they invaded northern China, reports from diplomats and missionaries were sent home. Change THAT, somehow, and US/Japanese relations will be viewed more positively. ...

A lot of that is less important if Japan has not invaded China. If the PoD is a less militaristic Japan from the 1920s the brutality is less obvious.
 
well ... you could have continued CommuNazi Axis ... with KMT China as putative member and Soviets allowing German ships and u-boats into Pacific? (@Carl Schwamberger has explained this as impossible to me several times! my view it's improbable but a lot of WWII was?)

THAT to me is only way to have ANY Japanese regime of era acceptable to Allied side, a struggle against Eurasian colossus, with China viewed as puppet country to be liberated?

pick your poison as to what misstep by Allied side brings Soviets fully into war? send troops to Finland, bomb Baku, or both?
 
... THAT to me is only way to have ANY Japanese regime of era acceptable to Allied side, a struggle against Eurasian colossus, with China viewed as puppet country to be liberated?

"Liberate" might be a operable word for the US, with some stretching For Britain, France, Italy, Portugal, & a few minor nations the "Unequal Treaties" or the Concessions had made China a quasi colonial territory of the Europeans. Japans efforts to control Korea, Manchuria, and eventually China was just a more direct or blatant effort at the same policy. The KMT was as anti colonialist as any Chinese group, they were just more subtle about it OTL. If the British and French are pressuring the KMT to eject the Germans, or actively fighting the Germans its going to hit a popular undercurrent in Chinese politics, the hatred of the Foreign Devils Concessions. Aside from the KMT this gives the Communists some traction, and even the warlords would be taking advantage of this.

If the Europeans want to preserve their Concessions and economic position in China they need to tread carefully and try out biding the Germans with the KMT. Playing on KMT/Communist tensions would help.
 
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