With a POD no earlier than 1945, is it possible for Algeria to gain independence without losing its European population of pieds-noirs? From what I can see, it looks rather tricky as the extremists on both sides came to dominate the mainstream political rhetoric early on in the conflict, limiting the possibilities for an amicable solution to satisfy both the FLN and the pieds-noirs. However, I'm guessing that with a POD in the mid to late forties, somebody on the board might be able to come up with a plausible way to get it done.
Any takers?
Quite hard.
The European population of Algeria wasn't an homogenous body. Urban elites, Rural landowners, little landowners (mainly non-french).
The urban elites were the most opposed to any form of independence, while the rural landowners (critically in the departement of Constantine) could accept it but by keeping their power on the little landowners.
These rural landowners were by the way more connected to their Muslims counterparts, as Abdallah Laroui described it.
The problem isn't a racist issue (the french colons were far more racist towards Spanish : my father said he was punished by his parents if he spoke a spanish word) but a question of social and economical dominance.
After the independence, my grand-father stay in Algeria during 2 years, while he had been mayor and a locally important landowner. The problem is that Algerian government asked him to pay his land, he refused and left Algeria (trying to divide the land between the peasant working for him, but the Algerian Government took it from them).
The departure of at least the landowners, urban elites, police forces, army an their families, high industrials (but not the industries) is, at my sense, unaboidable after 1945.
For the remaining (let's say, 2/5, 1/3 of the europeans) it's doable if
-No Setif Massacre
This thing was awful. It have certainly nothing different from what Hitler did in Europe, it was just more acceptable because it was only Muslims.
The number of deaths is reaching enormous numbers, at least 8 000 probably much more.
It made the use of a growing violence unavoidable, and if the defiles and demonstrations of Algerians weren't really pacifist (it's quite understable) the French army and officials proceed to mass execution, mass humiliations, mass deporation, torture. And it was the day the WW2 was over. (And it show that french army and police didn't forget too much on their 1940-1944 experience of collaboration)
Basically, the locals were treated no longer as 2nd class citizens but as strangers in their own country. Events like October 1961 are directly linked to this.
Avoid that, by an action of the PCF which was very very influent but didn't acted at all, and it's a great change. It wouldn't butterfly the riots and deads of the first day, but a communist official reaction would seriously cool the govermnent's act (De Gaulle treated the Algerians of "hitlerians elements")
As we talking about PCF
-An anticolonialist PCF
Until the 60's, the PCF position was the maintain of Algeria (and Syria-Lebanon in 45) in the French Union. The change was they have to be treated as equals, a empty declaration regarding the huge economical power of the european landowners.
If PCF had the same attitude in Algeria than Indochina, it would be enough to make between 1/4 and 1/3 of the metropolitan population accept the idea of independence since the 50's, and a growing proportion after.
But it didn't, mostly because Thorez (leader of PCF) was quite a nationalistic troll into the party, and because they quite modified the marxism-leninism perception of state, praising the "paceful conquest" of the communism by elections (it was periodically criticed by Moscow, with little effects).
You can get rid of Thorez by killing him, let's say a vichyst, doriotist attentat. If he's replaced by Duclos, or even better Marty it's done.
- A more autonom PCA
The Algerian Communist Party was composed by both europeans and algerians. He was quite linked to the PCF's wills but during the war, his elements were far more favorable to Algerian's independence. If the PCF let them, they wouldn't be forced to join the FLN as OTL, but could became a force of their own.
Not able to take the country, but enough to influence a fight against landowners (european and muslims) and praise an union of the little landowners and workers, europeans and muslims.
Maintain of the PPA
The People's Party of Algeria was more centrist and relativly less extremist than FLN. It was dissolved in 1945 by France, but have it survive even in clandestinity, and it could make the algerians more willing to collaborate between them, instead of having a faction's war which will be translated into "i'm killing more europeans than you".
And of course :
An earlier independence to avoid things going really wrong.