AHC: Achieve this scenario in the Middle East-Balkan

So the challenge is to have by the year 2000 or something like that this scenario in the middle east and surroundings with a POD after 1815:

-Syria and Lebanon united creating a secular country with "Syriac" as the main language.

-Palestine,Israel and Jordan united in a secural Arab-Syriac-Israeli country with multiple national language. There is no necessity of mass Jewish migration so possibly no genocide in Europe.

-Independent Assyria, biggerst as possible but by make it still remaining demographically functional. Highly cooperative with Kurds and special religious minorities.

-Bigger Armenia with Wilsonian border at least. As Assyria highly cooperative with Kurds.

-Completely Greek Cyprus.

-Secular Egypt with influential Coptic minority or strong use of Coptic language by the Coptic community and maybe Egyptian population too.

-Zero Wahabi Arabian country.

-The Horn of Africa is one single and hopefully functional country. By horn I mean OTL Ethiopia,Eritrea and Somalia plus any land you think is worth adding.

-Strong Federal Georgia with Ossetia(both South and Russian) and Abkhazia still under Georgian rule but, as the rest of the country´s provinces, autonomous.

-Persian Azerbaijan is part of an united Azeri country.

-Secular Caucasian Confederation, in the OTL Russian share of the Caucasus.

-Non-theocratic Iran/Persia with possibly a Kurdish autonomous region.

-Iraqi Arab province in Iran/Persia under Iraq rule, Iraq is either secular or Muslim but still pluralist country.

Super-Ultra optional and bonus point(s):
-Greek Costatin... wait for it... ople! And Thrace. Or at least make it a international or shared zone.


In general the scenario would be better to come with less genocides and ethnic or religious violence as possible, wars and total wars are still allowed of course but I guess that any ethnic violence would make most of the points impossible to make.
 
So the challenge is to have by the year 2000 or something like that this scenario in the middle east and surroundings with a POD after 1815:

-Syria and Lebanon united creating a secular country with "Syriac" as the main language.

Kind of hard, Syriac wasn't even spoken by the Christian minority at this point and was used as a liturgical language, as opposed to Levantine Arabic. You need Syrian nationalists to not attach themselves to pan-Arabism that became the craze in the 20th century and promote something akin to Phoenicianism - the idea that Syrians aren't Arabs but a unique Meditterranean people with unique customs and roots dating back thousands of years. This is possible in the 19th century as there wasn't an pan-Arab consciousness back then.

Hard but doable with the right circumstances.

Palestine,Israel and Jordan united in a secural Arab-Syriac-Israeli country with multiple national language. There is no necessity of mass Jewish migration so possibly no genocide in Europe.

In any case, what comprises Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian territories would be part of this Syrian state. It was considered southern Syria.
 
Kind of hard, Syriac wasn't even spoken by the Christian minority at this point and was used as a liturgical language, as opposed to Levantine Arabic. You need Syrian nationalists to not attach themselves to pan-Arabism that became the craze in the 20th century and promote something akin to Phoenicianism - the idea that Syrians aren't Arabs but a unique Meditterranean people with unique customs and roots dating back thousands of years. This is possible in the 19th century as there wasn't an pan-Arab consciousness back then.

Hard but doable with the right circumstances.



In any case, what comprises Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian territories would be part of this Syrian state. It was considered southern Syria.
Yeah but this would be a bit more Arab and Jewish so it can simply be part of Syria, however it would be an ally of it. It would be more of a neutral state than Syria would ever manage to be, I mean the Holy city of nearly half the world population is here and it would be convenient to remove any political conflict from this land.

Euhhh... Anarchist/Leftist Arab world?

Anarchist? I don´t think you could really achieve this after WW2, Syria is already independent by this moment. Plus Assyrian and Armenian people have been slaughtered by the Ottomans during WW1 so it has to be at least before 1900.
 
The Jordanian Palestinian Israeli country only works as a super national union perhaps, something akin to the EU but with a more powerful government.

Egypt is doable with a strong Coptic community, changes to Egyptian nationalism and a revived Coptic language.
 
The Jordanian Palestinian Israeli country only works as a super national union perhaps, something akin to the EU but with a more powerful government.

Egypt is doable with a strong Coptic community, changes to Egyptian nationalism and a revived Coptic language.
But I don´t really thing there would be real ethnic borders, they would be mixed around the country even if of course Transjordan is going to have more Muslim Arab. It would be full neutral but not secular like Syria as it would promote religious tours and as a way to Mecca for many Muslim countries.
Capitalism + Religion = Big Moneyz

I´m not sure about full Coptic Egypt, Syria seems more easier. But Coptic being widespread as minority and maybe elite language would be more likely.
 
"Coptic" and "Syriac" as main languages seems like it could be done with some sort of Arab-wank that prevents the colonization of the Middle East and thus the political impetus for the pan-Arab movement. Without it the political pressures that have led to Arabic being considered one language despite being divided into mutually unintelligible dialects by region would be gone, and "Coptic" and "Syriac" could just be the colloquial names for different languages that sprung out of Arabic in the same sense that French is called French despite having very little to do with the old Frankish language
 
"Coptic" and "Syriac" as main languages seems like it could be done with some sort of Arab-wank that prevents the colonization of the Middle East and thus the political impetus for the pan-Arab movement. Without it the political pressures that have led to Arabic being considered one language despite being divided into mutually unintelligible dialects by region would be gone, and "Coptic" and "Syriac" could just be the colloquial names for different languages that sprung out of Arabic in the same sense that French is called French despite having very little to do with the old Frankish language
That´s cheating. :p
Personally I don´t see how a big Arab and possibly Muslim country is going to break on nationalist pressure, non Sunni and non Arab people would support separatism but they would be minorities in most places. You really need an intelligent European rule, possibly by not make the Muslim and also the Christian population in the area hate you.
 
So the challenge is to have by the year 2000 or something like that this scenario in the middle east and surroundings with a POD after 1815:

-Syria and Lebanon united creating a secular country with "Syriac" as the main language.

-Palestine,Israel and Jordan united in a secural Arab-Syriac-Israeli country with multiple national language. There is no necessity of mass Jewish migration so possibly no genocide in Europe.

-Independent Assyria, biggerst as possible but by make it still remaining demographically functional. Highly cooperative with Kurds and special religious minorities.

-Bigger Armenia with Wilsonian border at least. As Assyria highly cooperative with Kurds.

-Completely Greek Cyprus.

-Secular Egypt with influential Coptic minority or strong use of Coptic language by the Coptic community and maybe Egyptian population too.

-Zero Wahabi Arabian country.

-The Horn of Africa is one single and hopefully functional country. By horn I mean OTL Ethiopia,Eritrea and Somalia plus any land you think is worth adding.

-Strong Federal Georgia with Ossetia(both South and Russian) and Abkhazia still under Georgian rule but, as the rest of the country´s provinces, autonomous.

-Persian Azerbaijan is part of an united Azeri country.

-Secular Caucasian Confederation, in the OTL Russian share of the Caucasus.

-Non-theocratic Iran/Persia with possibly a Kurdish autonomous region.

-Iraqi Arab province in Iran/Persia under Iraq rule, Iraq is either secular or Muslim but still pluralist country.

Super-Ultra optional and bonus point(s):
-Greek Costatin... wait for it... ople! And Thrace. Or at least make it a international or shared zone.


In general the scenario would be better to come with less genocides and ethnic or religious violence as possible, wars and total wars are still allowed of course but I guess that any ethnic violence would make most of the points impossible to make.


Syriac Lebanon and Syria would be impossible without going to between Abbasid Khilafah or Outremor (maybe). Very few people in the upper class spoke or speak Syriac at all. It would take major nationalism to create any reverence to Syriac and nationalism (in the Arab lands) in many ways is an imaginary construct so....


Why would they do this? What would compel the Arab leaders to accept Serto (Syriac script of Palestine) when it hasn't been spoken there by anyone of interest in hundreds of years? Also what other language would there to accept? Hebrew hadn't been spoken in Jerusalem for thousands of years and would need to revived, why would Arab leaders do this?


No one but the 'Assyrian' people even call Ninewah governate Assyria, no Arab or Kurd would prescribe to this. I mean you could gain a more tolerant Iraq by splitting it between north and south, but to make some sort of major Assyrian state whenever they are in a minority is sort of ASB.

Well, in most ways Egypt today is secular and treats the Copts fairly in general. Having the country being Coptic speaking is near impossible while also being nationalistic unless we go wayyyyy back lol.


Maybe if Ethiopia conquers these areas. I doubt they would ever agree to the point of making some sort of political union. What's more possible is breaking up Ethiopia apart into many nationalistic states than creating some huge Union.

Iran is easy just slow some of the progression by the Shah and make it more gradual and keep the support of the Ulema of Iran and Iraq, rather than alienating them.



Be clear in what you mean by "Wahabi", be clear in what you mean, which is most likely: -zero traditional Islamic nations with entirely secular nations who base their power upon nationalism and patriotism rather than Islam.
 
-Syria and Lebanon united creating a secular country with "Syriac" as the main language.
In this case, "Syriac" as in standardized variant of Western Neo-Aramaic languages?

Secular Egypt with influential Coptic minority or strong use of Coptic language by the Coptic community and maybe Egyptian population too.
Hmmmm.... You need a PoD that harks back to the days when Muhammad was still alive, like converting Egyptian-speaking merchants to Islam, the takeover of the city of Suez by these merchants and their armies, which were also Egyptian-speaking, and even a secret permission by Muhammad himself that the Quran cpuld be translated into Coptic/Egyptian language.
 
Syriac Lebanon and Syria would be impossible without going to between Abbasid Khilafah or Outremor (maybe). Very few people in the upper class spoke or speak Syriac at all. It would take major nationalism to create any reverence to Syriac and nationalism (in the Arab lands) in many ways is an imaginary construct so....


Why would they do this? What would compel the Arab leaders to accept Serto (Syriac script of Palestine) when it hasn't been spoken there by anyone of interest in hundreds of years? Also what other language would there to accept? Hebrew hadn't been spoken in Jerusalem for thousands of years and would need to revived, why would Arab leaders do this?


No one but the 'Assyrian' people even call Ninewah governate Assyria, no Arab or Kurd would prescribe to this. I mean you could gain a more tolerant Iraq by splitting it between north and south, but to make some sort of major Assyrian state whenever they are in a minority is sort of ASB.

Well, in most ways Egypt today is secular and treats the Copts fairly in general. Having the country being Coptic speaking is near impossible while also being nationalistic unless we go wayyyyy back lol.


Maybe if Ethiopia conquers these areas. I doubt they would ever agree to the point of making some sort of political union. What's more possible is breaking up Ethiopia apart into many nationalistic states than creating some huge Union.

Iran is easy just slow some of the progression by the Shah and make it more gradual and keep the support of the Ulema of Iran and Iraq, rather than alienating them.



Be clear in what you mean by "Wahabi", be clear in what you mean, which is most likely: -zero traditional Islamic nations with entirely secular nations who base their power upon nationalism and patriotism rather than Islam.
-So it is possible?

-Arab Leaders? I never said Arabs have to create this state, so they would not really oppose something not enforced on them. Any important Language used by jews would work.

-The Assyrians were many more before ww1, there are enough to create small country.

-I thought Coptics are being discriminated against even now, plus you don't need full coptic Egypt.

-Not so unlikely, is it?

-Ok

-No, not every country needs to be secular, Saudi Arabia or a ATL counterpart would stay Islamic.
 
In this case, "Syriac" as in standardized variant of Western Neo-Aramaic languages?


Hmmmm.... You need a PoD that harks back to the days when Muhammad was still alive, like converting Egyptian-speaking merchants to Islam, the takeover of the city of Suez by these merchants and their armies, which were also Egyptian-speaking, and even a secret permission by Muhammad himself that the Quran cpuld be translated into Coptic/Egyptian language.
Yes.


Oh, I said influential and strong use, not majority.
 
IMHO non-Wahhabi Arabia can be achieved by simply having the Hashemites defeating the Saudi, while non-theocratic Iran can be achieved by no meddling by USA...
 

Insider

Banned
- -Syria and Lebanon united creating a secular country with "Syriac" as the main language.
-Palestine,Israel and Jordan united in a secural Arab-Syriac-Israeli country with multiple national language. There is no necessity of mass Jewish migration so possibly no genocide in Europe.

No IIWW. Entente make themselves scarce from the region in slow, controlled manner, setting up belovent democratic regimes.

-Independent Assyria, biggerst as possible but by make it still remaining demographically functional. Highly cooperative with Kurds and special religious minorities.

An independent mercenary action after the Great War carves up his own territory. The new country is convenient enough for Entente that they back it up for first years of strife. Then it settles to be a quiet mountainous state, with a pinch of money coming only when oil under Mosul is discovered.


-Bigger Armenia with Wilsonian border at least. As Assyria highly cooperative with Kurds.
While the Russian and Turkish Empires dissolve. With Russian Civil War worse than OTL, Armenia is created by those on site. The border between Assyria and Armenia crosses the Van lake, and it is quite hostile, even in this relatively peaceful region.

-Completely Greek Cyprus.
A gift for Greece after the end of the Great War


-Secular Egypt with influential Coptic minority or strong use of Coptic language by the Coptic community and maybe Egyptian population too.
Mahdist uprisings of 1880’ ties spread to Egypt. After the British victory, muslim elites are dead, untrustworthy or imprisoned. The great powers make Coptic minority source of their middle management more than ever. When they slowly back out, military establishes its own regime. A very Coptic one.
-Zero Wahabi Arabian country.
With early knocking out the Ottomans of the war there is no need for Lawrence mission. The Arab history goes entirely different


-The Horn of Africa is one single and hopefully functional country. By horn I mean OTL Ethiopia,Eritrea and Somalia plus any land you think is worth adding.

As a Italian East Africa. Somewhat autonomus from metropoly. Functional, but fearful of trying to become independent and loosing the European Community subsidies and access to Euromarket.

-Strong Federal Georgia with Ossetia(both South and Russian) and Abkhazia still under Georgian rule but, as the rest of the country´s provinces, autonomous.

- Secular Caucasian Confederation, in the OTL Russian share of the Caucasus.
Easy one. ASBrainwash locals to peaceful community. Alternatively make the area target of Russian Reconquista. They would either cooperate and become one working country, or be resettled to Siberia. Never to return.



-Persian Azerbaijan is part of an united Azeri country.
-Non-theocratic Iran/Persia with possibly a Kurdish autonomous region.
-Iraqi Arab province in Iran/Persia under Iraq rule, Iraq is either secular or Muslim but still pluralist country.


After collapse of Ottoman Empire, Persia takes control of those territories. Shah rule lasts throughout XX century, modernising the country into more federalistic entity to lower the ethnic tensions. Current Shah was born prematurely during the visit to Iraq. He sometimes jokes about being born Iraqi

Super-Ultra optional and bonus point(s):
-Greek Costatin... wait for it... ople! And Thrace. Or at least make it a international or shared zone.

In my envisioned scenario with successful Galipoli and Bulgaria changing sides over night, Istambul becomes Free City of Constantinopole (to add assault to injury for deafeted Turks). It is an independent entity under care of League of Nations. (no IIWW, no UN) Bulgaria gets the Thrace, with a few concessions to Greece.


Love it, hate it?


 
-So it is possible?

-Arab Leaders? I never said Arabs have to create this state, so they would not really oppose something not enforced on them. Any important Language used by jews would work.

-The Assyrians were many more before ww1, there are enough to create small country.

-I thought Coptics are being discriminated against even now, plus you don't need full coptic Egypt.

-Not so unlikely, is it?

-Ok

-No, not every country needs to be secular, Saudi Arabia or a ATL counterpart would stay Islamic.



I don't know how you got possible out of that explanation...


Then who would create this imaginary state that would magically accept all these different languages?


The Assyrians never outnumbered the Kurds nor the Arabs in Ninewah or in Anbar.... As well why would the other ethnicities accept Syriac?


During Morsi's presidency the Copts were being persecuted but after his dismissal and the rise el-Sisi the persecution is significantly better overall and is not tolerated. In fact Sisi is the only Egyptian president to attend Christmas mass. So if Coptic is not spoken by the vast majority, why would it become an official language?

Likely for Ethiopia to conquer all these lands and then keep them, not likely in any way.

Explain to me the difference in Aqeedah of a "Wahabbi" and the Umayyad Khilafah. Explain what is the main difference. Wahabbi is just a derogatory term thrown at traditional Muslims by secularists, Sufi and Shia. It is used in order to demonize fundamental Muslims and equate them with takfiri like Osama Bin Laden, Anwar Awlaki, Abu Baraa, Muhammad Maqdisi, etc...
 
New proposition: if you want to have a secular and peaceful Middle East, try to have the Ba'ath Party succeed in Iraq, Syria and Egypt (without splitting up) and unite the Arab countries in a democratic, secular and socialist confederacy.
 
- -Syria and Lebanon united creating a secular country with "Syriac" as the main language.
-Palestine,Israel and Jordan united in a secural Arab-Syriac-Israeli country with multiple national language. There is no necessity of mass Jewish migration so possibly no genocide in Europe.

No IIWW. Entente make themselves scarce from the region in slow, controlled manner, setting up belovent democratic regimes.

-Independent Assyria, biggerst as possible but by make it still remaining demographically functional. Highly cooperative with Kurds and special religious minorities.

An independent mercenary action after the Great War carves up his own territory. The new country is convenient enough for Entente that they back it up for first years of strife. Then it settles to be a quiet mountainous state, with a pinch of money coming only when oil under Mosul is discovered.


-Bigger Armenia with Wilsonian border at least. As Assyria highly cooperative with Kurds.
While the Russian and Turkish Empires dissolve. With Russian Civil War worse than OTL, Armenia is created by those on site. The border between Assyria and Armenia crosses the Van lake, and it is quite hostile, even in this relatively peaceful region.

-Completely Greek Cyprus.
A gift for Greece after the end of the Great War


-Secular Egypt with influential Coptic minority or strong use of Coptic language by the Coptic community and maybe Egyptian population too.
Mahdist uprisings of 1880’ ties spread to Egypt. After the British victory, muslim elites are dead, untrustworthy or imprisoned. The great powers make Coptic minority source of their middle management more than ever. When they slowly back out, military establishes its own regime. A very Coptic one.
-Zero Wahabi Arabian country.
With early knocking out the Ottomans of the war there is no need for Lawrence mission. The Arab history goes entirely different


-The Horn of Africa is one single and hopefully functional country. By horn I mean OTL Ethiopia,Eritrea and Somalia plus any land you think is worth adding.

As a Italian East Africa. Somewhat autonomus from metropoly. Functional, but fearful of trying to become independent and loosing the European Community subsidies and access to Euromarket.

-Strong Federal Georgia with Ossetia(both South and Russian) and Abkhazia still under Georgian rule but, as the rest of the country´s provinces, autonomous.

- Secular Caucasian Confederation, in the OTL Russian share of the Caucasus.
Easy one. ASBrainwash locals to peaceful community. Alternatively make the area target of Russian Reconquista. They would either cooperate and become one working country, or be resettled to Siberia. Never to return.



-Persian Azerbaijan is part of an united Azeri country.
-Non-theocratic Iran/Persia with possibly a Kurdish autonomous region.
-Iraqi Arab province in Iran/Persia under Iraq rule, Iraq is either secular or Muslim but still pluralist country.


After collapse of Ottoman Empire, Persia takes control of those territories. Shah rule lasts throughout XX century, modernising the country into more federalistic entity to lower the ethnic tensions. Current Shah was born prematurely during the visit to Iraq. He sometimes jokes about being born Iraqi

Super-Ultra optional and bonus point(s):
-Greek Costatin... wait for it... ople! And Thrace. Or at least make it a international or shared zone.

In my envisioned scenario with successful Galipoli and Bulgaria changing sides over night, Istambul becomes Free City of Constantinopole (to add assault to injury for deafeted Turks). It is an independent entity under care of League of Nations. (no IIWW, no UN) Bulgaria gets the Thrace, with a few concessions to Greece.



Love it, hate it?



-Is 30 years enough to make Syriac important?

-Well, achieving independence without the genocides would be better.

-Same as above.

-Ok.

-Could work.

-Oh, seems easy.

-Having it independent would be better.

-Ehy, there has to be other ways.

-But it would be a Persia wank and it is not part of the scenario to achieve.

-OK.


New proposition: if you want to have a secular and peaceful Middle East, try to have the Ba'ath Party succeed in Iraq, Syria and Egypt (without splitting up) and unite the Arab countries in a democratic, secular and socialist confederacy.

This would be a pan-Arab wank scenario and it is not in anyway part of the scenario as a strong Egyptian and Syrian identity is required.


I don't know how you got possible out of that explanation...


Then who would create this imaginary state that would magically accept all these different languages?


The Assyrians never outnumbered the Kurds nor the Arabs in Ninewah or in Anbar.... As well why would the other ethnicities accept Syriac?


During Morsi's presidency the Copts were being persecuted but after his dismissal and the rise el-Sisi the persecution is significantly better overall and is not tolerated. In fact Sisi is the only Egyptian president to attend Christmas mass. So if Coptic is not spoken by the vast majority, why would it become an official language?

Likely for Ethiopia to conquer all these lands and then keep them, not likely in any way.

Explain to me the difference in Aqeedah of a "Wahabbi" and the Umayyad Khilafah. Explain what is the main difference. Wahabbi is just a derogatory term thrown at traditional Muslims by secularists, Sufi and Shia. It is used in order to demonize fundamental Muslims and equate them with takfiri like Osama Bin Laden, Anwar Awlaki, Abu Baraa, Muhammad Maqdisi, etc...
-You said it would require major nationalism and well a POD from 1815 gives plenty ways.

-Europeans, every ethnic group that would be official was here before any population movement so it is not far-fetched.

-But they were many as 40% and throught some population movement of Assyrians outside the state you can increase the share. About Syriac, well this is a AHC so you should find out, I would argue that Christians would accept it quite easily given good chain of events.

-But this intolerance is present among the population still, isn´t it? Anyway you don´t need it as official but even as only minority or co-official.

-Well it is a way to achieve the scenario.

-Well I don´t really use it as a derogatory term, anyway you could say that Saudi Arabia would be as religious as Morocco or Tunisia is. Or a little more.



IMHO non-Wahhabi Arabia can be achieved by simply having the Hashemites defeating the Saudi, while non-theocratic Iran can be achieved by no meddling by USA...
Oh, expand more on the Hashemites vs Saudi conflict.
About Persia/Iran the non-theocratic part alone would be very easy to achieve but you also have to revisit the Iranian borders.
 
Bump

Bump, so far most people used a WW1 POD but personally I would like something starting in the 19th century.
 
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