There's no second place Clinton win in New Hampshire's primary, no Comeback Kid speech. Butterflies see to it that Jerry Brown doesn't tell a bunch of Jewish people that he's considering as Vice-President a man who once called New York "Hymietown". After a Brown-Tsongas slugfest, Brown wins the nomination, but the Jerry Brown/Douglas Wilder ticket ultimately goes down in defeat. The continuing presence of a Bush in Washington lessens the appeal of a Bush in Austin, and Richards pulls off another win in 1994. In 1996, the Democrats are looking for someone from middle America, after their recent coastal losers. Richards is a feisty speaker many remember from the 1988 DNC, and has won twice now in a southern, conservative state. She gets the nomination, with VP nominee Bob Kerrey. Despite the Republicans' best efforts, her opponent is Vice President Dan Quayle. Quayle makes his usual gaffes on the campaign trail, drawing attention away from anything substantive he might have to say. He doesn't say anything terrible during the debates, but Richards is surely the winner (there's also a feeling that the Vice President perhaps tried to talk down to the woman governor, which doesn't help him with that half of the voting population). Richards wins, carrying several southern states. Despite the possibility of a all-ladies election against Elizabeth Dole, Richards faces off against John McCain in 2000. The close-fought election all comes down to Florida, where after a week of recounts, the state goes for the President, ensuring her re-election. Tragically, former President Richards died from esophageal cancer just a year after leaving office.
 
Geraldine Ferraro has been mentioned at times, and there is indeed a @Sombergen called "Trailblazing to Victory: The Ramifications of America's First Woman President", despite some liberties taken that in my view damage its plausibility. Of the many candidates that could be presented she is the most likely to win the Democratic nomination in the Pre-2000 era, though her struggles at achieving higher office leave my confidence in that wanting.

Dianne Feinstein is another, especially if she is picked over Ferraro as Mondale's running-mate. Her own upper trajectory is a bit more complicated though by the popularity of George Deukmejian and Pete Wilson at the time; I'm not sure if we can move it forward any which way, or if Feinstein would find a viable constituency amongst the American electorate.


Anne Richards has been mentioned for obvious reasons, and I happen to see her as the strongest candidates of those presented, but the problem lies in that it depends on a Republican winning the 1992 Presidential Election, whether that is George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole or someone else. This also assumes that she is able to manage a convincing victory over George Bush the Younger, which is a bit more difficult to establish. To be clear this is not me saying that Richard's can't defeat Bush, but that her major electoral message of being a candidate who could win in a now traditionally Red State would be weakened, both her gubernatorial terms won by narrow margins. Her own gubernatorial record would also come under suspicion, to her detriment, and she seems to have been capable of making her own share of gaffes when things weren't going her way.

Nancy Kassebaum has the potential of being a Presidential contender, but of course she tended towards the liberal end of the Republican Party, and she'd have considerable difficulty in attaining the nomination should she seek it, even had she been tapped as the running-mate of a Republican ticket or served as the Vice President. Social Conservatives did not consider her a friend, and I'm not sure she'd be capable or willing to make the necessary capitulations to garner their support.

Jeane Kirkpatrick was another who was actively considered a Republican contender, and I suppose it is possible that she may have managed to end up as Vice President alongside Bob Dole had he won the nomination over Bush.

I don't see anyone else being particularly viable on the national stage.

@Falecius Shirley Chisholm could never attain the Democratic nomination for the simple reason that she was unelectable on the national stage at that time, amongst even the Democratic primary electorate, and it would be far too much of a risk for any sane Democratic Presidential nominee to consider putting her on the ticket. She'd alienate key constituencies in the 80's and 90's that would be required to engineer a Democratic victory. A black women winning the Presidency in the prior Millennium is just not something I see as possible barring massive butterflies.
 
Going back a little earlier, Eleanor Roosevelt could have a shot. She's a plausible VP candidate from 1940-1952; if Franklin declines a third or fourth term, or by a democrat after he dies who wants to run on the New Deal legacy.
 
Richards should be viable in 96 if the Democrats lose in 92, and Ferraro potentially too if she wins her Senate race. If Feinstein wins her gubernatorial race, you can throw her into the mix as well. Though Richards should be able to be re-elected - Bush is highly unlikely to run with Poppy still in the White House - I don't think it's a sure thing given how red Texas was trending. And she'd probably need a fairly commanding win to set herself up for 96. I think if the Dems throw 92, the party establishment will want someone really water-tight, which also works against Ferraro and Richards IMO. But out of the three of them, one of them should be able to mount a respectable candidacy. It's not totally out there that there's a female president elected that year.
 
I think, as mentioned, your earliest possibility is Eleanor Roosevelt. After helping secure support for Stevenson in '52, Eleanor is chosen as his running mate. The ticket loses but does better than OTL. Some people say that had Stevenson picked a man, they could've beaten Ike. Others believe that Eleanor is what made them competitive against Ike in the first place. The '56 convention is a mess. More candidates enter the fray, not necessarily because they can beat Ike, but because they know Stevenson can't. This includes Kefauver and Harriman per OTL. LBJ also makes a more serious play. There are a few more candidates - take your pick of who. The point is, the convention is deadlocked. For the first time in decades, the balloting goes beyond a third ballot. Delegates are undecided. Finally, a compromise candidate emerges, Eleanor Roosevelt. She goes on to narrowly defeat Ike. Likely? No, of course not. Plausible? Enough.

Next, Shirley Temple wins her Congressional race in 1967. She wins the Republican nomination in the 1976 Senate primary. She becomes close to Reagan throughout his presidency and he encourages her to take the lead on a number of issues - foreign and domestic for his administration. She loses the 1988 presidential primary to Bush, but he chooses her as his Secretary of State. In 1996, she is the Republican nominee and defeats Clinton who may be vulnerable to a conservative woman on the ticket. I am positive there is an earlier way to get her to the White House given a career beginning in 1967, though. This assumes relatively few butterflies after her Congressional victory. It is entirely possible, however, to have Bush win the 1980 nomination and have Reagan encourage him to choose Temple as his running mate. Bush serves from 80-88. Temple, the conservative voice in his administration, is the 88 nominee and is elected the first female president that year.

Ferraro was likely poised to become the first female Speaker of the House after Tip O'Neill. Not only was she rising fast in leadership, O'Neill adored her and had great respect for her. Let's say that Mondale chooses instead to offer the nomination to Feinstein and Ferraro stays in the House. When O'Neill steps down in 87, Ferraro becomes the Speaker. Instead of assuming the compromising role that O'Neill did, she becomes a tough liberal alternative to the Reagan administration and, eventually, the Bush one. As Speaker, Republicans (particularly Gingrich) try and bring her down with the "scandals" that plagued her 88 bid. This allows the country to deal with them and get them out of the way prior to a presidential bid. There's maybe even an ethics investigation that clears her. Either way, by the time 1992 roles around the Democrats are without a candidate. Mario Cuomo hedges and instead encourages Ferraro, a close friend, to run instead. She steps down as Speaker to run and decimates anyone on her way to the nomination. Then, 1992 takes a turn, and she becomes the first female president. There's also the path to the White House she envisioned for herself: winning the Senate in 92, beating Gore in the 2000 primaries, and then winning the general against Bush. Her cancer, however, complicates that.

Another favorite of mine is Elizabeth Dole's path. This relies on Bush's 2000 campaign falling apart. It is probably easier to have him lose against Ann Richards (he never meets Karl Rove or some other list of events or maybe the DUI comes out early and neutralizes his character attacks on Richards). In this case, you could have a 2000 general election that is Richards vs. Elizabeth Dole. Two female nominees and a guaranteed female president. Or, you could have Dole beat Bush. This requires a lot more work. Basically, the scenario I've envisioned is the Bush DUI breaking right before the Ames Straw Poll. Dole wins the Straw Poll - a major electability test at the time. She uses that to raise money and become viable against Bush. It's a drawn-out contest that makes Hillary and Obama look like rainbows and roses. Dole scrapes by and then goes on to defeat Gore with McCain as her running mate.
 
Ferraro would have rose in the House Leadership had she stayed in the House, but she wouldn't have become Speaker immediately after O'Neill, she was too junior. More likely is her displacing Dick Gephardt's OTL career, perhaps with her own 1988 run - if the Democrats win in 92, a different nominee-VP combination could open up her House career making her viable up to 2000, if her health holds up. But that's a stretch.

Dole really stands little chance in 2000, whether Bush is there or not. Her best chance IMO would be in Ford winning in 76, and Bob's presidential prospects terminating, one way or the other, in 1980. That would enable her to enter the senate decades earlier than OTL and result in her being a potentially serious prospect for a few decades worth of nominating cycles.
 
Going back a little earlier, Eleanor Roosevelt could have a shot. She's a plausible VP candidate from 1940-1952; if Franklin declines a third or fourth term, or by a democrat after he dies who wants to run on the New Deal legacy.
I think, as mentioned, your earliest possibility is Eleanor Roosevelt. After helping secure support for Stevenson in '52, Eleanor is chosen as his running mate. The ticket loses but does better than OTL. Some people say that had Stevenson picked a man, they could've beaten Ike. Others believe that Eleanor is what made them competitive against Ike in the first place. The '56 convention is a mess. More candidates enter the fray, not necessarily because they can beat Ike, but because they know Stevenson can't. This includes Kefauver and Harriman per OTL. LBJ also makes a more serious play. There are a few more candidates - take your pick of who. The point is, the convention is deadlocked. For the first time in decades, the balloting goes beyond a third ballot. Delegates are undecided. Finally, a compromise candidate emerges, Eleanor Roosevelt. She goes on to narrowly defeat Ike. Likely? No, of course not. Plausible? Enough.
The problem is that Eleanor Roosevelt had no desire for elected office; there was plenty of opportunity for her to do so, but she never did, and seemed content as an international spokesperson for Women at the United Nations. Now circumstances could be engineered to push herself into the running for an office of some kind rather than her sons, but even then I have trouble seeing her being named to a Democratic ticket. While Roosevelt may have been popular, I'm not sure it would have been a net positive for the ticket for the obvious reason she was a woman, and there was a significant lack of trust in a woman managing that office effectively.

Next, Shirley Temple wins her Congressional race in 1967. She wins the Republican nomination in the 1976 Senate primary. She becomes close to Reagan throughout his presidency and he encourages her to take the lead on a number of issues - foreign and domestic for his administration. She loses the 1988 presidential primary to Bush, but he chooses her as his Secretary of State. In 1996, she is the Republican nominee and defeats Clinton who may be vulnerable to a conservative woman on the ticket. I am positive there is an earlier way to get her to the White House given a career beginning in 1967, though. This assumes relatively few butterflies after her Congressional victory. It is entirely possible, however, to have Bush win the 1980 nomination and have Reagan encourage him to choose Temple as his running mate. Bush serves from 80-88. Temple, the conservative voice in his administration, is the 88 nominee and is elected the first female president that year.
I actually forgot about Shirley Temple, and the path you've laid out is largely what I'd see for her. If she is a Conservative tied to Reagan however, there is a good chance that she may be tapped by Bush the Elder instead of Dan Quayle. From there though it isn't all that clear, as I doubt that would provide her a real avenue to the Presidency. If time goes forth much the way it has, I don't see Temple allowing for Bush to win in '92, or being able to garner victory in '96 against what'd likely be a popular Democratic Administration. That leaves two rather unlikely avenues.

The first is that Shirley Temple runs for President against Bush in '88 and wins the nomination. There is an outside possibility she could do so, but as she'd have likely tied herself to the Reagan Administration significantly by this time, I'm not sure she'd have performed strongly in the General Election given voters wanted to "move on" in another direction, whatever that may be. The other issue is that in running in '88 she would be sacrificing her Senate seat as it was up that year, and I don't know if she'd make that kind of trade.


The second is if George the Elder were to step aside and endorse Shirley Temple as the Republican candidate in '92. She'd be guaranteed the nomination by this point, and she'd be a stronger candidate then Bush on paper given the divisions that existed then, but there isn't any clear reason for Bush to step aside. Bush's health was largely a non-issue, and while he didn't have much of a platform to run with he ran anyway.

So …. I don't know.

Ferraro was likely poised to become the first female Speaker of the House after Tip O'Neill. Not only was she rising fast in leadership, O'Neill adored her and had great respect for her. Let's say that Mondale chooses instead to offer the nomination to Feinstein and Ferraro stays in the House. When O'Neill steps down in 87, Ferraro becomes the Speaker. Instead of assuming the compromising role that O'Neill did, she becomes a tough liberal alternative to the Reagan administration and, eventually, the Bush one. As Speaker, Republicans (particularly Gingrich) try and bring her down with the "scandals" that plagued her 88 bid. This allows the country to deal with them and get them out of the way prior to a presidential bid. There's maybe even an ethics investigation that clears her. Either way, by the time 1992 roles around the Democrats are without a candidate. Mario Cuomo hedges and instead encourages Ferraro, a close friend, to run instead. She steps down as Speaker to run and decimates anyone on her way to the nomination. Then, 1992 takes a turn, and she becomes the first female president. There's also the path to the White House she envisioned for herself: winning the Senate in 92, beating Gore in the 2000 primaries, and then winning the general against Bush. Her cancer, however, complicates that.
As @V-J said I have serious doubts about her becoming Speaker; when I looked at other potential Democratic candidates for the Speakership in '86, it became clear that Jim Wright had been working for years getting all the right endorsements in place, and had little real opposition to his nomination by the Democrats present. Tom Foley faced a similar situation when Jim Wright's political career was claimed by his own scandals. That isn't to say she couldn't eventually win the Speakership, but it'd be in a timeframe more similar to Nancy Pelosi's. The other plan, of her running against Gore in 2000, I believe would flop in much the same way Bradley's campaign did; maybe a sight more successful, but I don't believe that Gore was so weak as to be defeated in the Democratic primary from the Left.

Another favorite of mine is Elizabeth Dole's path. This relies on Bush's 2000 campaign falling apart. It is probably easier to have him lose against Ann Richards (he never meets Karl Rove or some other list of events or maybe the DUI comes out early and neutralizes his character attacks on Richards). In this case, you could have a 2000 general election that is Richards vs. Elizabeth Dole. Two female nominees and a guaranteed female president. Or, you could have Dole beat Bush. This requires a lot more work. Basically, the scenario I've envisioned is the Bush DUI breaking right before the Ames Straw Poll. Dole wins the Straw Poll - a major electability test at the time. She uses that to raise money and become viable against Bush. It's a drawn-out contest that makes Hillary and Obama look like rainbows and roses. Dole scrapes by and then goes on to defeat Gore with McCain as her running mate.
The problem is that so long as Bob Dole's Presidential prospects are alive, Elizabeth Dole's prospects are dead, and so long as Bob Dole is in office Elizabeth Dole won't be.

 
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