AHC: A stable Ottoman-Russian alliance in the 19th Century

So, rather to my surprise, it seems that at several points in the 19th Century, the Ottoman Empire adopted a pro-Russian stance. Given that Russia beating up on the Ottomans is one of the constants of the 18th and 19th Centuries, I would have thought that the Ottomans would have opposed the Russians at all costs.

It seems that on the Russian side, there was genuine interest in an Ottoman alliance as well - particularly a few years before the Crimean and 1877-1878 wars. However, in both cases, Russian public opinion shifted, and and Russia would make war on the Ottomans to address those opinions.

Given the ways that the attempts to build an alliance between the two failed, I have a hard time seeing an alliance between the two ever working in this period. But, I'm new to this area of history, so maybe there are twists that I don't know about yet.

So for those of you more knowledgeable in Russian and Ottoman history, here is a challenge: make a viable alliance between Russia and the Ottomans in the 19th century that: 1) doesn't end in the Russians or Ottomans stabbing the other in the back, 2) works out to the mutual benefit of both parties and for bonus points 3) have them fight together in a war as a result of either one honouring this alliance.

Over to you guys.

fasquardon
 
The difficulty is that Russia wants and needs warm water ports and outside of the largely seasonal access at St. Petersburg the Ottomans control Russia's only possible sea connection. Considering the differences in religion, culture, both being expansionist empires, and the fact that the Ottomans have a death grip on Russia's southern sea access I think they are natural enemies. Even today Turkey can completely close off Russia's access to the Med which is why the US tries so hard to stay friends with Turkey.

I think you have two options. The first is to give Russia better Atlantic/Baltic access to reduce their need for a Black Sea port which in turn would reduce their competition with the Ottomans. Perhaps Scandinavia or Poland are incorporated into Russia, although that might be a stretch to accomplish.
The second option is to nerf Russia. A weaker Russia that feels threatened by a powerful Poland or Austria is likely to turn to the Ottomans as an ally and the Ottomans are likely to see Russia as a good tool against incursions toward the Baltic region.
 
As Zeppelin points out, the difficult is that Russia needs a Warm Water Port and the only easy place to get that is The Ottomans. What you would need is some way to convince Russia that the only possible way they can get access to that is via Diplomacy.

I would say if you have the Crimean War go much worse for Russia you could get it. I'm talking Alaska is taken by Britain, Congress Poland and Finland are forcibly released, massive indemnities, that sort of thing. Perhaps Britain successfully gets Austria or Prussia to intervene, with Poland being broken off under Max or a Prussian equivalent.

The advantage of this is it not only makes Russia less likely to attack The Ottomans given what happened last time, but it also shifts their targets. If Poland is broken off into an Austrian satellite in particular you'll see a Russia that really wants it back and an Ottoman Empire coming under more pressure from a much stronger and more diplomatically connected Austria. With British Relations with the Ottomans possibly declining both because of Russia no longer being as big of a threat and Austria being their primary counterweight for Russia and the coming Ottoman Money Problems, then you could get The Ottomans and Russia teaming up.

In which case France and Prussia turn into wildcards, but my money would be on France siding with Britain-Austria and Prussia siding with Russia-Ottomans.
 
In which case France and Prussia turn into wildcards, but my money would be on France siding with Britain-Austria and Prussia siding with Russia-Ottomans.

I like that a lot. by releasing Poland you completely rebalance the alliances of Europe. If it still happens, WWI is going to look very different this time around.
 
with Poland being broken off under Max or a Prussian equivalent.

If you could get the Austrians and Prussians to agree to that then the British diplomats must be so good that they could convince Russia to become a British dominion

In other words that's ASB. There is no way Prussia and Austria are agreeing to a free Poland. Especially Austria who already had plenty of problems with the varying nationalities within the empire
 
Top