This is a possibility I see rarily discussed. Is there a plausible way to bring such a scenario about (with a PoD after 1933)? Especially so that their alliance remains intact even after the German invasion of the USSR, and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (if it still happens)?
As an example, here is a quick scenario I came up with:
Let's say France and Britain start preparations for Operation Pike a bit earlier. Thus, in early May 1940, just before the German invasion of France, French and British bombers attack Soviet oil facilities in Baku. Naturally, the Entente and the Soviets declare war on each other shortly after. A few days later Germany invades France, and, just like OTL, things go south for the Entente pretty quickly.
While the Germans are busy with France, Stalin orders an all-out invasion of Persia, while Soviet submarines join their German allies to attack British shipping in the Atlantic. After the fall of France, the Germans and the Soviets ask the Japanese to join them against Britain, and offer them any British possessions in Asia they manage to take, as well as oil shipments from Persia and Iraq once the British are pushed out of the region.
Knowing that taking control of French and British possessions in South-East Asia would geographically isolate China, and thus prevent further material support from reaching the Chinese nationalists, the Japanese agree. After occupying French Indochina, Japan attacks Hongkong sometime in late 1940, followed by Singapur and Malaya. In early 1941 they invade Burma, with the intent to eventually invade India from the east, while the Soviets hope to do the same from the west (if they manage to push the British out of Persia). With the Empire under assault in East Asia, the Middle East and North Africa at the same time, things look grim for Britain.
Then, in June 1941, Germany launches Barbarossa. To prevent Japan from attacking the Soviets too (knowing that Japan, which borders the USSR, is at this point a greater danger to the USSR than the British), and to maintain their alliance, Stalin offers Japan to officially recognize Manchukuo as well as Japan's puppet government in China. Japan, to prevent the Soviets from making a separate peace with Britain (or worse, a Soviet-British alliance), agrees to maintain the alliance, but only if the Soviets guarantee not to sign a separate peace with Britain. Relations between Germany and Japan meanwhile take a dive, since Japan was quite happy with the Soviet-Japanese pincer against the British Empire, and because a conquest of the Persian and Iraqi oil fields has became quite unlikely, now that the Soviets have to shift their attention from the Middle East to the home front.
Furthermore, since the US have enacted an embargo against Japan in response to their aggressive actions, and the Soviets have been unable to conquer the Persian and Iraqi oilfields, Japan still decides to attack Pearl Harbor, followed by an invasion of the DEI, to secure a steady supply of oil. Hitler, hoping to convince Britain to make peace with Germany, and to prevent the US from getting any ideas about entering the war in Europe, decides to denounce Japan, on the basis of their violation of the Anti-Comintern-Pact.
Britain and the Soviets meanwhile have entered a 'phony war' in Persia, with neither side willing to engage further, and focusing on the Germans instead. Despite some low-level diplomatic talks, Britain and the Soviets remain officially at war, and without lend-lease, the situation on the eastern front looks quite a bit worse for the Soviets by 1942, which is why Stalin is desperate enough to offer a Brest-Litovsk-like peace to the Germans. Hitler agrees, and both sides sign a treaty in late 1942. The treaty is harsh, and not only takes away Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics, but also forces the Soviets to deliver large amounts of raw material, machinery, tanks and planes to Germany for a period of several years. It also forbids the Soviets from entering any new alliances with other powers (which intentionally leaves out the already existing alliance with Japan).
Hitler agrees to the peace for several reasons: First, to prevent Britain from officially entering an alliance with the Soviets in the unlikely event that Stalin decides to ditch Japan. Second, to be able to reinforce the German and Italian forces in North Africa and to hopefully push Britain out of Egypt, therefore forcing Britain finally to the peace table. And third, to leave the Soviets no choice but to continue and deepen their alliance with Japan, thus drawing the ire (and attention) of the Anglo-American powers. However, Hitler knows that this peace is only temporary, and intends to finish off the Soviets once he has made peace with the British.
In return for generous amounts of Ukrainian grain from the Germans, Franco agrees to declare war on Britain in 1943, hoping to reclaim Gibraltar. Following the fall of the Rock, and a renewed German push into Egypt, as well as signs that Turkey seems to be willing to join the Axis, Britain finally decides to make peace with Germany. The peace treaty is fairly lenient: Spain reclaims Gibraltar, and Egypt west of the Sinai becomes part of the Italian sphere of influence. Britain gets to keep the Sinai peninsula, while the Sinai canal will come under joint British, German and Italian ownership. Other than that, Britain loses no colonial territory, and has to pay no indemnities.
Having failed to prevent German hegemony in Europe, Churchill resigns, and is replaced (probably by Halifax). Desperate to regain confidence and prestige, the British are determined to defeat the Japanese in Asia, knowing the survival of the Empire depends on it. Hoping for an easy show of strength, they also demand that the Soviets evacuate Persia, most of which is still under Soviet occupation. Stalin, having been forced to sign a humilating peace treaty with the Germans the year before, knows he cannot afford to be humilated further, knowing his position as undisputed leader of the Soviet Union has already been weakened enough. He refuses the British demands, which is followed by the resumption of hostilities in Persia shortly after.
The Soviets, bereft of any other allies, continue their alliance with Japan, to whom they sell tanks and other weapons (many of which are superior to what the Japanese have in their arsenal) in addition to raw materials. The main goal of the Soviets and Japanese at this point is to invade India, where they intend for their forces to link up somewhere and to establish an independent Indian state under Japanese auspices, and an independent Pakistan under Soviet control. They hope that the loss of India will force Britain out of the war, granting the Soviets unhindered access to the Indian Ocean (and restore some of Stalin's prestige), while allowing Japan to focus all their attention on the US. However, their conquest of India fails, especially after the arrival of US forces on the subcontinent to support the British, followed by an American declaration of war on the Soviets.
The arrival of US forces in India and the American DoW make it clear to Stalin that the British have no intention of giving up India or Persia. Consequently, he sends out peace feelers, knowing the Soviet Union has no hope of defeating the British and Americans. The British and Americans however ignore the (inofficial) Soviet peace offer. Instead, the Americans send forces to support the British in Persia. The reason they ignore Stalin's peace overtures is because the continued hostilities with the Soviets offer them an excuse for the presence of American forces in the Middle East - ostensibly directed against the Soviets, but in truth to prevent German excursions in the region. Still, they hope to come to an arrangement with the Soviets after Japan is defeated, knowing that they need the USSR as a counterweight to the Germans, as the only European country left outside the German orbit (other than Britain).
Hitler however has other plans, and in the summer of 1944 German forces invade the USSR once more, this time starting much further east, intending to finish what they started in 1941, while the Americans tighten the noose around the Japanese Empire...
Well, that was my idea of how a Soviet-Japanese alliance could come about. There are probably dozens of holes in the scenario, but since this was a spur-of-the-moment thing, it's the best I could come up with.
What other possibilities are there for such an alliance? Maybe a German-Polish alliance in the 30s, forcing the Soviets to look elsewhere?
As an example, here is a quick scenario I came up with:
Let's say France and Britain start preparations for Operation Pike a bit earlier. Thus, in early May 1940, just before the German invasion of France, French and British bombers attack Soviet oil facilities in Baku. Naturally, the Entente and the Soviets declare war on each other shortly after. A few days later Germany invades France, and, just like OTL, things go south for the Entente pretty quickly.
While the Germans are busy with France, Stalin orders an all-out invasion of Persia, while Soviet submarines join their German allies to attack British shipping in the Atlantic. After the fall of France, the Germans and the Soviets ask the Japanese to join them against Britain, and offer them any British possessions in Asia they manage to take, as well as oil shipments from Persia and Iraq once the British are pushed out of the region.
Knowing that taking control of French and British possessions in South-East Asia would geographically isolate China, and thus prevent further material support from reaching the Chinese nationalists, the Japanese agree. After occupying French Indochina, Japan attacks Hongkong sometime in late 1940, followed by Singapur and Malaya. In early 1941 they invade Burma, with the intent to eventually invade India from the east, while the Soviets hope to do the same from the west (if they manage to push the British out of Persia). With the Empire under assault in East Asia, the Middle East and North Africa at the same time, things look grim for Britain.
Then, in June 1941, Germany launches Barbarossa. To prevent Japan from attacking the Soviets too (knowing that Japan, which borders the USSR, is at this point a greater danger to the USSR than the British), and to maintain their alliance, Stalin offers Japan to officially recognize Manchukuo as well as Japan's puppet government in China. Japan, to prevent the Soviets from making a separate peace with Britain (or worse, a Soviet-British alliance), agrees to maintain the alliance, but only if the Soviets guarantee not to sign a separate peace with Britain. Relations between Germany and Japan meanwhile take a dive, since Japan was quite happy with the Soviet-Japanese pincer against the British Empire, and because a conquest of the Persian and Iraqi oil fields has became quite unlikely, now that the Soviets have to shift their attention from the Middle East to the home front.
Furthermore, since the US have enacted an embargo against Japan in response to their aggressive actions, and the Soviets have been unable to conquer the Persian and Iraqi oilfields, Japan still decides to attack Pearl Harbor, followed by an invasion of the DEI, to secure a steady supply of oil. Hitler, hoping to convince Britain to make peace with Germany, and to prevent the US from getting any ideas about entering the war in Europe, decides to denounce Japan, on the basis of their violation of the Anti-Comintern-Pact.
Britain and the Soviets meanwhile have entered a 'phony war' in Persia, with neither side willing to engage further, and focusing on the Germans instead. Despite some low-level diplomatic talks, Britain and the Soviets remain officially at war, and without lend-lease, the situation on the eastern front looks quite a bit worse for the Soviets by 1942, which is why Stalin is desperate enough to offer a Brest-Litovsk-like peace to the Germans. Hitler agrees, and both sides sign a treaty in late 1942. The treaty is harsh, and not only takes away Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltics, but also forces the Soviets to deliver large amounts of raw material, machinery, tanks and planes to Germany for a period of several years. It also forbids the Soviets from entering any new alliances with other powers (which intentionally leaves out the already existing alliance with Japan).
Hitler agrees to the peace for several reasons: First, to prevent Britain from officially entering an alliance with the Soviets in the unlikely event that Stalin decides to ditch Japan. Second, to be able to reinforce the German and Italian forces in North Africa and to hopefully push Britain out of Egypt, therefore forcing Britain finally to the peace table. And third, to leave the Soviets no choice but to continue and deepen their alliance with Japan, thus drawing the ire (and attention) of the Anglo-American powers. However, Hitler knows that this peace is only temporary, and intends to finish off the Soviets once he has made peace with the British.
In return for generous amounts of Ukrainian grain from the Germans, Franco agrees to declare war on Britain in 1943, hoping to reclaim Gibraltar. Following the fall of the Rock, and a renewed German push into Egypt, as well as signs that Turkey seems to be willing to join the Axis, Britain finally decides to make peace with Germany. The peace treaty is fairly lenient: Spain reclaims Gibraltar, and Egypt west of the Sinai becomes part of the Italian sphere of influence. Britain gets to keep the Sinai peninsula, while the Sinai canal will come under joint British, German and Italian ownership. Other than that, Britain loses no colonial territory, and has to pay no indemnities.
Having failed to prevent German hegemony in Europe, Churchill resigns, and is replaced (probably by Halifax). Desperate to regain confidence and prestige, the British are determined to defeat the Japanese in Asia, knowing the survival of the Empire depends on it. Hoping for an easy show of strength, they also demand that the Soviets evacuate Persia, most of which is still under Soviet occupation. Stalin, having been forced to sign a humilating peace treaty with the Germans the year before, knows he cannot afford to be humilated further, knowing his position as undisputed leader of the Soviet Union has already been weakened enough. He refuses the British demands, which is followed by the resumption of hostilities in Persia shortly after.
The Soviets, bereft of any other allies, continue their alliance with Japan, to whom they sell tanks and other weapons (many of which are superior to what the Japanese have in their arsenal) in addition to raw materials. The main goal of the Soviets and Japanese at this point is to invade India, where they intend for their forces to link up somewhere and to establish an independent Indian state under Japanese auspices, and an independent Pakistan under Soviet control. They hope that the loss of India will force Britain out of the war, granting the Soviets unhindered access to the Indian Ocean (and restore some of Stalin's prestige), while allowing Japan to focus all their attention on the US. However, their conquest of India fails, especially after the arrival of US forces on the subcontinent to support the British, followed by an American declaration of war on the Soviets.
The arrival of US forces in India and the American DoW make it clear to Stalin that the British have no intention of giving up India or Persia. Consequently, he sends out peace feelers, knowing the Soviet Union has no hope of defeating the British and Americans. The British and Americans however ignore the (inofficial) Soviet peace offer. Instead, the Americans send forces to support the British in Persia. The reason they ignore Stalin's peace overtures is because the continued hostilities with the Soviets offer them an excuse for the presence of American forces in the Middle East - ostensibly directed against the Soviets, but in truth to prevent German excursions in the region. Still, they hope to come to an arrangement with the Soviets after Japan is defeated, knowing that they need the USSR as a counterweight to the Germans, as the only European country left outside the German orbit (other than Britain).
Hitler however has other plans, and in the summer of 1944 German forces invade the USSR once more, this time starting much further east, intending to finish what they started in 1941, while the Americans tighten the noose around the Japanese Empire...
Well, that was my idea of how a Soviet-Japanese alliance could come about. There are probably dozens of holes in the scenario, but since this was a spur-of-the-moment thing, it's the best I could come up with.
What other possibilities are there for such an alliance? Maybe a German-Polish alliance in the 30s, forcing the Soviets to look elsewhere?
