AHC: A Peaceful & Prosperous Afghanistan

Potential PoDs:

- Muhammed Zahir beats the 1973 coup
- Communist coup in 1978 fails
- Hafizullah Amin lives (survives the 1979 assassination)
- Communists win the civil war
- Monarchy restored in 2002 instead of the Karzai government

There's some earlier PoDs as well, but they would probably make too much butterflies.
 
Maybe adding the 7 agencies of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas to it during the partition of India MIGHT help, since that would strengthen the Pashtuns further and thus lead to a clear dominance of them? Then you just have the country be a bit more lucky (Zahir Shah doesn't seem like a terrible ruler, judging from my limited knowledge) and you'd be settled.
 
If Zahir Shah managed to stay in power and agree to be Finlandized by the Soviets in exchange for not invading the country, Afghanistan can avoid three decades of civil war. If that happens, it will be relatively prosperous, and if it can avoid an ethnic civil war, peaceful.
 
IMO, due to the ethnic makeup and strategic location, you won't get a modern Afghanistan that's peaceful. Best bet would be an pre-1900 POD resulting in a smallish Pashtun south central state centered on Kandahar, with either several smaller states or a single messy state to the north. Maybe something like a smaller Durrani "empire".
 
IMO, due to the ethnic makeup and strategic location, you won't get a modern Afghanistan that's peaceful. Best bet would be an pre-1900 POD resulting in a smallish Pashtun south central state centered on Kandahar, with either several smaller states or a single messy state to the north. Maybe something like a smaller Durrani "empire".

Nothing says that the country's ethnic makeup guarantees civil war. Federalization and a multiethnic elite coalition of tribal elders and pro-business urban liberals could do wonders.
 
The problem is the tribal culture- every valley has its own clan, and theyve been raiding each other and their neighbours since probaly 1000ad.

How do you stop that? You'd probably have to get some central authority with enough power and wealth to be able to police every valley.

If it's a foreign power, how do you keep the various clans uniting against it?

And if it's a native power, where do they get the money to impose order.

My guess is the best bet would be a Muslim power, possibly the Mughals or Persians. Rich heartland, not 'too' foreign. But why do they care about imposing justice and rule of law, when it costs so much money and so many lives.

Second best would be the British Empire. They'd try hard to impose the rule of law - but they are very foreign - and infidels, to boot.

Third best would be a charismatic religious figure who converts Afghanistan to a form of Islam that's dead set against tribalism, raiding your neighbours, etc. Like that would get converts there!


In any case, even if you manage to get the place peaceful, how the heck do you get it prosperous? What can Afghanistan produce that's worth anything? The land isnt very fertile. If you did have someone making world class widgets, the the transportation infrastructure sucks. All thosevalleys, you know.

So any hypothetical product has to be veryl l valuable per unit weight.

Opium? 'Persian' rugs?

But even so, how do you prevent someone else, with better trading links, from producing the same stuff cheaper?

Maybe that hypothetical sect of Islam allows images, and that kind of carpet becomes all the rage in Europe, but any persian weavers who try to cash in on the trend get a fatwa pronounced against them?

Edit. Oh dear. This is in AFTER1900. Oh my.
Nope. Not going to happen. Just not. Sorry.
 
Preventing the coup d'etat that overthrow Zahir Shah would help, Afghanistan was relatively modern and peaceful then.
 
More jewel mines?
I recently watched a documentary about jewel mines in North-Eastern Afghanistan, but their technology was so primitive that they cracked a lot of potential gem stones.
 
Potential PoDs:

- Muhammed Zahir beats the 1973 coup
- Communist coup in 1978 fails
- Hafizullah Amin lives (survives the 1979 assassination)
- Communists win the civil war
- Monarchy restored in 2002 instead of the Karzai government

There's some earlier PoDs as well, but they would probably make too much butterflies.

I agree with anything that saves the monarchy, but I don't see how a communist victory would help them at all. They wouldn't have the Soviets to bankroll them and their ideology is widely deemed bankrupt around the time they would win. I just don't think it would hold together well for long.
 
Preventing the coup d'etat that overthrow Zahir Shah would help, Afghanistan was relatively modern and peaceful then.

Agree, there are some photos floating about of what the female university students formerly wore, similar to Iran pre and post revolution.
 

Rishi

Banned
What can Afghanistan produce that's worth anything?

That's an ignorant remark, Afghanistan is EXTREMELY RICH in precious minerals:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_in_Afghanistan

If Afghanistan's tribes can co-exist peacefully with each other, then Afghanistan's prosperity can be secured based on its mineral wealth alone.

Edit. Oh dear. This is in AFTER1900. Oh my.
Nope. Not going to happen. Just not. Sorry.

It WILL happen in the 1900s if the POD is right. Afghanistan was relatively prosperous and liberal decades ago. Women were even allowed to wear short skirts in Afghanistan in the 70s:

Afghan-women-in-the-1970s.jpg
 
Potential PoDs:

- Muhammed Zahir beats the 1973 coup
- Communist coup in 1978 fails
- Hafizullah Amin lives (survives the 1979 assassination)
- Communists win the civil war
- Monarchy restored in 2002 instead of the Karzai government

There's some earlier PoDs as well, but they would probably make too much butterflies.

The best bet is Zahir Shah surviving, or side stepping the coup of 1973.

Having just finished reading the excellent Afgantsy on the Soviet invasion, I don't think there is any hope of a good outcome with Amin surviving. He was a ruthless despot who, when Moscow censured him about his repressions, replied that Stalin also had to crack some heads to make communism. For a more successful communist regime, though it is far short of Zahir Shah's regime, Moscow should install Najibullah from the outset — not Babrak Karmal. Najibullah was energetic, competent, and practical enough to understand the limits of his regime's appeal. Indeed, the author of Afgantsy stated that many Afghan's today consider Najibullah to have been one of the best leaders of Afghanistan:

The last communist president, Najibullah, had been one of the best of Afghanistan's recent rulers: more popular than Daud, the equal of Zahir Shah. Video recordings of Najibullah's speeches were being sold round Kabul, with their warnings — which turned out to be true — that there would be civil war if he were overthrown. -Afgantsy: The Russians in Afghanistan. Rodric Braithwaite. (London.2011.Profile Books Ltd.) pg 335
 
It WILL happen in the 1900s if the POD is right. Afghanistan was relatively prosperous and liberal decades ago. Women were even allowed to wear short skirts in Afghanistan in the 70s:

Afghanistan wasn't as 'liberal' as you think; the 'benefits' of western culture were primarily located and restricted to the population centres (Kabul and the rest of the major northern cities), with a fair few in the south remaining restrictive in their social policy, despite what Zahir's central government commanded. Hell, it was even worse in the countryside where traditional Islam pretty much always ruled supreme, however, I'll admit that with the appropriate PODs, you could see the traditionalism of the clans whittled away and 'western values' exported throughout the nation en masse.
 
What if Communist Afghanistan rather than asking for Help from the USSR which was piecemeal and badly coordinated instead applied to become an SSR?

That way as much Military could be mobilised at once as needed to deal with "Internal Issues" and destroy the Barbarous Terrorists in one go to restore order.
 
The best bet is Zahir Shah surviving, or side stepping the coup of 1973.

Having just finished reading the excellent Afgantsy on the Soviet invasion, I don't think there is any hope of a good outcome with Amin surviving. He was a ruthless despot who, when Moscow censured him about his repressions, replied that Stalin also had to crack some heads to make communism. For a more successful communist regime, though it is far short of Zahir Shah's regime, Moscow should install Najibullah from the outset — not Babrak Karmal. Najibullah was energetic, competent, and practical enough to understand the limits of his regime's appeal. Indeed, the author of Afgantsy stated that many Afghan's today consider Najibullah to have been one of the best leaders of Afghanistan:

I second the recommendation of that book for anyone interested in a good read on the war in Afghanistan. Afgantsy truly is excellent (and myth-debunking).
 
Avoid 1973 Revolution and That would have Butterfly Soviet War in Afghanistan, Civil Wars, Rise of Taliban, Al-Qaeda and 9/11

Afghanistan would be Better Beautiful Nation and It would be Developed like Kazakhstan
 
That's an ignorant remark, Afghanistan is EXTREMELY RICH in precious minerals:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_in_Afghanistan

If Afghanistan's tribes can co-exist peacefully with each other, then Afghanistan's prosperity can be secured based on its mineral wealth alone.

IF they can. But you need a massive change to do so. Like one of the possibilities I outlined above. Which requires an 1800s PoD at best.

Extracting those minerals and hauling them over 19th century infrastructure to be exported to pay for the (huge) costs of pacification?

Have fun with that.
 
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