This one might be ASB, but I thought of it recently and love it. The POD is a Tuscany that successfully colonizes IOTL French Guiana in 1605, gets a taste for colonization, and then goes on to colonize the Carolinas in the 1620s in pursuit of cotton to grow its manufacturing industry. IOTL Tuscany began to decline economically after losing its place as the middlemen of the spice trade to Portugal, so instead ITTL they invest heavy into their cloth industry, and needing more cotton for their growing clothing manufacturing industry, they decide to colonize the Carolinas. Tuscany could also come into controlling the duchy of Urbino if butterflies mean Francesco Maria II lives longer, giving it more of a population base to pursue colonization. During the wars of Castro, they could come to be the dominant power in central Italy, annexing the Barberini principalities of Palestrina and Monterotodo, further increasing their population. Maybe they even come into possession of the Knights Hospitaller colonies instead of them returning to France. This wanked Tuscany could find itself in a war with the Dutch over the Guiana, which see the Dutch capture Tuscan Guiana, while Tuscan troops from the Carolinas easily march into New Netherlands and capture the lightly defended settlement, leading to a conclusion much like the OTL Anglo-Dutch war, where the Dutch get to keep Guiana, but the Tuscans also get to keep New Netherlands. Italians in NYC 200 years early! I think Tuscany is a much better candidate for such a scenario because, unlike France or Spain, their metropole isn't so much concerned with trade or exploitation of preexisting resources, rather the development of the land into one that will fuel the growing industry back home, much like Britain. The greatest handicap is population, but this could be overcome with the aforementioned expansion and collaboration with other Italian states.