AHC: A Happier Turkey

[Marius Mazzini]

With a POD of anytime after Ataturk's death in 1938, how do you get Turkey to be more similar to some of the middle income authoritarian developmentalist states it paralleled in the Cold War such as South Korea. In some ways, I suppose I have in mind a Turkish state with the benefits of Erdogan (initially strong economic growth, reduction of influence of the Deep State)without the s (creeping Islamization, ignoring rising inflation and debt to maintain popular support, worsening relations with NATO). Some specifics:

1) A GDP per capita (PPP) of $35,000 or higher by the present. An export-driven economy is a plus but not a necessity provided the previous condition is met.
2) The Turkish "Deep State" was dismantled earlier and more gradually rather than lasting into the 2000s
3) Regardless of whether the Turkish state is secularist in policy, a Turkish state where the bulk of the population is not alienated from these policies either due to compromise or a more thorough secularization of the population itself
4) A competitive two or multi-party system, with little to no restrictions on political and civil liberties.
5) No Kurdish guerrilla movement in eastern Turkey

BONUS: Turkey recognizes and apologizes for its role in the Armenian genocide

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

With a POD of anytime after Ataturk's death in 1938, how do you get Turkey to be more similar to some of the middle income authoritarian developmentalist states it paralleled in the Cold War such as South Korea. In some ways, I suppose I have in mind a Turkish state with the benefits of Erdogan (initially strong economic growth, reduction of influence of the Deep State)without the s (creeping Islamization, ignoring rising inflation and debt to maintain popular support, worsening relations with NATO). Some specifics:

1) A GDP per capita (PPP) of $35,000 or higher by the present. An export-driven economy is a plus but not a necessity provided the previous condition is met.
2) The Turkish "Deep State" was dismantled earlier and more gradually rather than lasting into the 2000s
3) Regardless of whether the Turkish state is secularist in policy, a Turkish state where the bulk of the population is not alienated from these policies either due to compromise or a more thorough secularization of the population itself
4) A competitive two or multi-party system, with little to no restrictions on political and civil liberties.
5) No Kurdish guerrilla movement in eastern Turkey

BONUS: Turkey recognizes and apologizes for its role in the Armenian genocide

All except Bonus possible. Having them to perform the Bonus is political suicide

 

[catalfalque]

I think you need a presidential system like Greece or Italy, where the president is outside of politics and able to intervene to try to stabilise the ship of state

Instead they got a president/prime minister system like France or Russia, with one all-powerful executive and everyone else subordinate to it

 

[Jackson Lennock]

I think you need a presidential system like Greece or Italy, where the president is outside of politics and able to intervene to try to stabilise the ship of state

Instead they got a president/prime minister system like France or Russia, with one all-powerful executive and everyone else subordinate to it

Until the recent referendum, the Turkish Presidency was like Greece or Italy's. They only voted a year ago to have an all-powerful executive a la France or Russia.

 

[Marius Mazzini]

Would avoiding the 1960 Turkish coup and Adnan Menderes staying in power past 1960 have been a good POD?

 

[Dan1988]

Would avoiding the 1960 Turkish coup and Adnan Menderes staying in power past 1960 have been a good POD?

Before Menderes went crazy? Yes, that could work.

 

[Lascaris]

Well my take is here Greco-Turkish Federation

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Avoiding Menderes getting power is better but for that you need a less agressive version of Secularism supported by CHP.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Well my take is here Greco-Turkish Federation

Wtf

 

[Lascaris]

Wtf

What disagree with the logic somewhere? And I think it does get you the happy Turkey part, after all I shortcircuited the 1960 coup or at least the executions that followed it, weakened the deep state, brought more investment and made Turkey an EU member.

 

[Governer-General]

My post from similar thread.

There are a lot of POD for this.
1. Better negatiations during Mosul Question.
2. Turkmen-Kurd population exchange with Iraq and Syria avoids Kurdish Question around 20s
3. Inönü adopts constution before 1946 elections thus avoids anti democratic actions of Demokrat Party and subsuqent military coup.
4. No 1960 coup.
5. Ecevit and Demirel elects a president thus avoids 1980 coup.
6. No 1980 coup.
7. Better treatment to Kurds during 90s.
8. No 1987 referandum or results "no". Thus avoids 90s political and economic instability.

My favorite are number 3 and 4.
If you give South Korea's 3/4 of GDP per capita growth between 1960-2010 to Turkey. You would get 40k GDP per capita for Turkey by 2010.

Turkey's main problem was populist/incompetent politicans and interventions of military. Not resources or ethnic/religious conflicts.

 

[Marius Mazzini]

My post from similar thread.


My favorite are number 3 and 4.
If you give South Korea's 3/4 of GDP per capita growth between 1960-2010 to Turkey. You would get 40k GDP per capita for Turkey by 2010.

Turkey's main problem was populist/incompetent politicans and interventions of military. Not resources or ethnic/religious conflicts.

Lots of good PODs there. I'm not sure if the inclusion of the Kurds automatically makes instability inevitable given even IOTL, the insurgency didn't begin til late in the 20th Century. In the '40s and '50s was the Demokrat Party more authoritarian than the Kemalists or were they equally blameworthy in undermining liberal norms?