AHC: A different great war

[posted in before 1900 cause the PoD would definitely have to be that far back]

What sort of scenario might see Germany and Russia fighting on the same side vs. Austria-Hungary, the Ottomans, France, and Britain?

I don't know much about that era of history, but seems to me that Russia and Germany have every reason to work together, given their mutual interests in challenging Britain either in Asia or on the seas. Britain and France had previously defend the Ottomans, and the Austrians and Ottomans both could have strong interests in preserving a Balkan status quo.
 
Have a smarter Kaiser who keeps to Bismarcks advice to keep Russia close.

I agree with you that working with Russia is better. Britain is too leery of Germany ambitions for continental hegemony, France is their rival even without Alsace Lorraine and Austria Hungary is a deadweight.
 
When the Three Emperors' Pact fell apart, Germany had a choice ...

Stay with Austria-Hungary, and support them in their Balkan Ambitions, or back Russia, in theirs ...

The seemingly easiest POD, would be one that altered that calculation, in Russia's favour!
 
I also think that Germany would have been better supporting Russia. Austria-Hungary was already a decadent empire, which Prussia had been able to easily defeat. Russia, on the other hand, has almost endless land and manpower, with a very harsh winter. Even in OTL the Central Powers only won thanks to the Russian Revolution. Had the Russian Empire been able to get its game together, perhaps they could have bounced back like the SU did in WWII... The fact that both Germany and Austria are Germanic reichs aside, an alliance with Russia would be much more useful:

1.- Austria Hungary could be easily defeated by the Russian Empire with token German support. OTL their perfomance against Russia and even Serbia was terrible, and the Brusilov Offensive almost forced them out of the war. Without Germany to fight, all the might of Russia would fall in Austria Hungary. Germany would only need a little portion of its Army to protect itself, and thanks to their superior tactics and equipment, they could be marching in Vienna pretty quickly.
2.- If Russia and Germany aren't allied, then the most likely thing to happen is France allying Russia, just as in OTL.
3.- The powerful German industry could help Russia, in exchange they would give Germany their almost infinite resources, thus limiting the efficacy or a possible British blockade.
4.- The French might not resist the full might of the German Army being thrown against them. Even if the forces are similar to OTL (because Germany has to defend against Austria), AH can be defeated much sooner than Russia, and those divisions would go to France.
5.- Should France fall, and if the UK is her ally, the situation would became an stalemate as British forces can't land, but Germany isn't able to attack the home islands thanks to the RN. I think the UK would agree to peace then.
6.- If the Ottoman Empire enters the war, they may be better than in OTL as there would be no Mesopotamian or Egyptian theaters. Then, Russia would be able to hold the line against them easily, and once Austria falls all the Russian Army would go to the Caucassus.
7.- Italy may join Germany to get French (Savoy, Corsica) and Austrian (Dalmatia, Fiume, others) land. The natural resources of Russia and Germany could keep Italy afloat. I think they would only send a little force to the Austrian border, sending the main Army to the French border, and they wuld only join when AH is at the brink of collapse.
8.-In such an scenary, I don't see the US joinning any side.

Now, how would such a war start? Perhaps in the Balkans...
 

Isaac Beach

Banned
Uneducated query: if there's still a Russo-Japanese War, would Germany potentially enter in on Russia's side, and vice versa Britain on Japan's?
Just a thought, probably wrong but eh.
 
I also think that Germany would have been better supporting Russia. Austria-Hungary was already a decadent empire, which Prussia had been able to easily defeat. Russia, on the other hand, has almost endless land and manpower, with a very harsh winter. Even in OTL the Central Powers only won thanks to the Russian Revolution. Had the Russian Empire been able to get its game together, perhaps they could have bounced back like the SU did in WWII... The fact that both Germany and Austria are Germanic reichs aside, an alliance with Russia would be much more useful:

1.- Austria Hungary could be easily defeated by the Russian Empire with token German support. OTL their perfomance against Russia and even Serbia was terrible, and the Brusilov Offensive almost forced them out of the war. Without Germany to fight, all the might of Russia would fall in Austria Hungary. Germany would only need a little portion of its Army to protect itself, and thanks to their superior tactics and equipment, they could be marching in Vienna pretty quickly.
2.- If Russia and Germany aren't allied, then the most likely thing to happen is France allying Russia, just as in OTL.
3.- The powerful German industry could help Russia, in exchange they would give Germany their almost infinite resources, thus limiting the efficacy or a possible British blockade.
4.- The French might not resist the full might of the German Army being thrown against them. Even if the forces are similar to OTL (because Germany has to defend against Austria), AH can be defeated much sooner than Russia, and those divisions would go to France.
5.- Should France fall, and if the UK is her ally, the situation would became an stalemate as British forces can't land, but Germany isn't able to attack the home islands thanks to the RN. I think the UK would agree to peace then.
6.- If the Ottoman Empire enters the war, they may be better than in OTL as there would be no Mesopotamian or Egyptian theaters. Then, Russia would be able to hold the line against them easily, and once Austria falls all the Russian Army would go to the Caucassus.
7.- Italy may join Germany to get French (Savoy, Corsica) and Austrian (Dalmatia, Fiume, others) land. The natural resources of Russia and Germany could keep Italy afloat. I think they would only send a little force to the Austrian border, sending the main Army to the French border, and they wuld only join when AH is at the brink of collapse.
8.-In such an scenary, I don't see the US joinning any side.

Now, how would such a war start? Perhaps in the Balkans...

I'm not sure the perceived or actual "decadence" of Austria-Hungary played much of a role. More likely it seems that massive divisions between the Austrian and Magyar aristocracy, and the general weakness of the state and its institutions in the face of these divisions were the major problem. Although I do admit that this area is not my area of expertise by any means.

1. Seems generally correct.

2./3. Could Germany provide for Russia the financial support that France did OTL?

4. One issue before we get to war is that France will obviously do more to prepare in the face of a world where it is facing both Germany and Russia. I can see a lot of France financing to both Austria and the Ottomans, and maybe Italy and others as well - France effectively building a larger alliance, with British help, to contain German, Russian, and Serbian ambitions on the continent.

5. Probably, but the UK could probably wreak havoc on Russia in the East once again, especially with the help of Japan, no?

6. An alt-Crimean war, but on a grander scale, I suppose...

7. I see Italy preferring to remain neutral in this case - their joining the Central Powers would presuppose all the successes that you assume they will have and I'm not sure those are certain by any means.

8. If the Central Powers win a quick war then no, the US wouldn't get involved.


Uneducated query: if there's still a Russo-Japanese War, would Germany potentially enter in on Russia's side, and vice versa Britain on Japan's?
Just a thought, probably wrong but eh.

Apart from butterflies maybe forcing a global war somehow, I don't see what Germany would have to gain by it. Fighting Britain isn't really an end in and of itself. Fighting Japan even less so - especially given how vulnerable and distant German colonies in the East are.
 
It depends on the timing. If the Russo-German alliance occurs officially in the 1890's then you will see a earlier Entente for the UK and France with Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, Japan and minor powers like Belgium and (maybe)Bulgaria possibly getting pulled in.

I could see a more structured and modern French military and a larger British Army by the time this version of WW1 kicks off as well as Franco-British money being poured into Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire and Belgium to both modernize their infrastructure and armies. Not too sure about Bulgaria. I doubt they would say no to large concessions in Macedonia and Serbia but they will most likely but looking at Romania and Russia and wait for them to react first.

I'd also see a neutral Greece in this. While i can the the Pro-UK people and politicians still remaining their is still the Pro-German monarch and with no clear enemy to fight nearby they will stay quiet.


Another issue might be socially in Germany, or south Germany in Bavaria, Wurttemburg and possibly Baden as they will get militarized and don't know how they would react to being forced to fight their own Germanic brethren.

Land-wise i see the Russo-German Alliance holding an advantage but not an overwhelming one, most likely the Entente playing a defensive war to try and get the Russo-Germans to bleed themselves dry and starve their economies. Naval-wise this version of the Entente will be fully dominant with the German colonies and the Russian Far-East coming under quick and devastating attack unless the Russians and Germans have prepared them heavily.

I see Italy staying Neutral unless it looks like Austria-Hungary is on the edge of collapse and France is occupied.
 
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I am not convinced that 1891 (the German refusal to extend the Reiinsurance Treaty) isn't too late. 1878 might be better.

But anyway, you need to get rid of Caprivi as Chancellor. Nother successor for Bismarck might extend the RT, and there would probably less attempts to win over the UK for a formal alliance than in OTL.

There might be continued low-key disputes with the Uk over the exact borders in East Africa and in South West Africa. With an alliance with Russia, the Kaiser might feel free to start a HSF, IOW he might be even more willing to let himself convinced by Tirpitz et al.

Interesting times when the Boer Wars roll around.

Regarding Austria: I don't think you could get the Hofburg into an alliance directed against Germany and Russia. They have maps, too. You would need full Italian compliance to even get support from the West into A-H. Vienna will not decide on a course that is based on that. It is too onbious that A-H could never be more than a low hurdle to slow Germany and Russia down.
Plus, I doubt that by 1890 you will find enough Habsburg monarchists among the German-Austrians to fight Germany for a significant time. The KuK government might withdraw to Buda from the start, give up most of Cisleithania, try to hold Hungary, the Litoral and parts of the Alps and wait for the western allies to bail them out. Or they grumble a lot and secretly agree to play a junior role in a Russian-German hegemony.
 
I'm not sure the perceived or actual "decadence" of Austria-Hungary played much of a role. More likely it seems that massive divisions between the Austrian and Magyar aristocracy, and the general weakness of the state and its institutions in the face of these divisions were the major problem. Although I do admit that this area is not my area of expertise by any means.

1. Seems generally correct.

2./3. Could Germany provide for Russia the financial support that France did OTL?

4. One issue before we get to war is that France will obviously do more to prepare in the face of a world where it is facing both Germany and Russia. I can see a lot of France financing to both Austria and the Ottomans, and maybe Italy and others as well - France effectively building a larger alliance, with British help, to contain German, Russian, and Serbian ambitions on the continent.

5. Probably, but the UK could probably wreak havoc on Russia in the East once again, especially with the help of Japan, no?

6. An alt-Crimean war, but on a grander scale, I suppose...

7. I see Italy preferring to remain neutral in this case - their joining the Central Powers would presuppose all the successes that you assume they will have and I'm not sure those are certain by any means.

8. If the Central Powers win a quick war then no, the US wouldn't get involved.

It's not mine either. However, I meant decadence in a sense that AH was no longer a top power. I mean, Austria was a great power, but it was well behind Russia, France, Germany, the UK and the US. My sources (mainly books and the youtube channel "The Great War") make me think that Austria-Hungary's main problem was the lack of modernization, in both tactics and equipment, and, as you have already said, the division and weakness of the state.

2./3. Germany CAN provide the finalcial support, thanks to their powerful economy. The question is, would they?

4. I didn't realize that in such a situation France would try to prepare itself better. Who knows? Perhaps such a France would be able to even win against Germany... but then what? Should France exhaust itself with Germany, defeating Russia would be impossible. As for support to allies... I don't really think that France can solve the core problems of neither AH nor the Ottoman Empire, but their support would be very valuable. A well equiped, trainned and led Ottoman Army may get the upper hand in the Caucassus, but I still think that AH would collapse, and once the full might of Russia is in the Caucassus, the Ottomans can't last that long. As for Italy... aside from some German colonies, I don't see what else they could win in a war against both Germany and Russia, so I think they would either join Germany or remain neutral.

5. Yes, but Japan can't do much on its own, except destroying the Russian Pacific Navy (the Baltic fleet would have no chance of going there thanks to the RN). As far as I know, Japan was in the border of a socio-economic collapse during the Russo-Japanese War. Thanks to the trans-siberian railway Russia doesn't need a navy to supply its forces, and I'm sure they have the manpower to spare. The IJN might have been great, but their army was not that good actually. Also, though loosing Vladistock would be bad, the rest of Siberia and the Russian Far East has little strategical value and marching from there to Russian Europe isn't something practical (you can oonly do that if you're the mongols). I'm sure that the RN's help would make landings and capture of ports easier, but the main core of Russian Population and industry would still very far in the west.

6. With Austria to take care of this time.

7. Of course such a grade of success isn't certain, but I was working under the assumption that the threat's author wanted them to join as well. Remaining neutral would be the wisest choose, but should Austria collapse and with the entire French Army north, Italy would have a chance to win almost all the lands they desire in a war that would seem to be almost over.

8. That's for certain. By the way, I don't think that a German-Russo Alliance would be called "The Central Powers". Maybe something like "the two emperors' league".
 
Regarding Austria: I don't think you could get the Hofburg into an alliance directed against Germany and Russia. They have maps, too. You would need full Italian compliance to even get support from the West into A-H. Vienna will not decide on a course that is based on that. It is too onbious that A-H could never be more than a low hurdle to slow Germany and Russia down.
Plus, I doubt that by 1890 you will find enough Habsburg monarchists among the German-Austrians to fight Germany for a significant time. The KuK government might withdraw to Buda from the start, give up most of Cisleithania, try to hold Hungary, the Litoral and parts of the Alps and wait for the western allies to bail them out. Or they grumble a lot and secretly agree to play a junior role in a Russian-German hegemony.

Perhaps not, but wouldn't Russia still antagonize Austria by supporting Serbia? It seems that one way or another they're probably doomed in any given scenario, though.

@Red_Galiray - as the thread's founder, I didn't have a set in stone notion of what side the Italians would take. Also I'd be up to reformatting the scenario to have the Austrians try to sit it out, if that seems more plausible. I mostly just wanted to envision a world where Russia and Germany cooperate through the end of the long 19th century and try to figure out what would realistically happen.
 
@Red_Galiray - as the thread's founder, I didn't have a set in stone notion of what side the Italians would take. Also I'd be up to reformatting the scenario to have the Austrians try to sit it out, if that seems more plausible. I mostly just wanted to envision a world where Russia and Germany cooperate through the end of the long 19th century and try to figure out what would realistically happen.

I see. Sorry for misunderstanding your purpose. I think that the wisest thing to do for Austria would be remaining neutral should an alliance between Germany and Russia happen, because they're doomed otherwise. As for the realistic consecuences of Russo-German cooperation... well, we could see a lot more Russian influence in the Balkans as I doubt that AH would try to antagonize two allied powers at its doorstep, each one much more powerful than itself. France would be worried about the alliance, try to prepare even more than it did in OTL and build a larger alliance.
 
Perhaps not, but wouldn't Russia still antagonize Austria by supporting Serbia? It seems that one way or another they're probably doomed in any given scenario, though.

Please don't forget that "Russia supports Serbia in everything" is not set in stone, certainly not in 1891. Serbia was rather pro-Austrian under the Obrenovic dynasty, ie until the coup of 1903. Support for Serbia was not the problem, that were the incompatible goals of the two Great Powers: Russia wanted to either annex the Orthodox Balkan area or parcel it out into loyal vassal states, while Austria-Hungary wanted to keep Bosnia, Croatia and Dalmatia (and ideally Serbia) under its own control and prevent a encirclement by Russia in the north, east and south.

With a PoD in ~1890, neither the Serbian coup of 1903, nor the Bosnian crisis of 1908 nor the Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913 will happen necessarily similar to OTL.
 
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