AHC: A Better Somalia
- Thread starter Kerguelen
- Start date
If Somalia supports the Tigrayans, then the Derg will be overthrown and probably replaced with something like the EPRDF which currently governs Ethiopia and which the Tigrayans are a key member of. If the Derg are overthrown early enough, it might prevent the infamous famine in the 1980s, which made Ethiopia synonymous with famine, hunger, and poverty. Well, not prevent it, but make it less bad. If a group like the EPRDF were in charge, it still would've been a famine, but not a terrible one.
Basically, a Somali victory in the Ogaden War could easily mean the overthrow of the Derg and its replacement by a better government which wouldn't be as violent and destructive to the Ethiopian people, so basically a better Ethiopia and a better Somalia at the same time. Although a socialist group like the EPRDF probably wouldn't have adopted their China-like stance they have nowadays without the fall of the Soviet Union.
If Ethiopia collapsed into different ethnic states, I imagine Somalia would have no issue recognizing , supporting and acting as a security guarantee for the different Ethiopian successor states as it have nothing to fear from separatists . You could have stable but balkanized Ethiopia.
I tend to doubt this happens. It's in Somalia's best interests to have a stable Ethiopia next door, sans any Somali-majority territories of course, given that a balkanized Ethiopia is going to lead to conflict no matter what, especially if the Ethiopian successor states are specifically Amhara-led states. Any Amhara-led state is going to claim the 'title' of Ethiopia for themselves.
I will say this though: it's certainly possible that ITTL Ethiopia becomes part of three different states, with Soomaaliweyn in the east of course, a rump Amhara 'Ethiopia' in the north and an Oromo state in the south. The Amhara would most likely be hostile to those who broke up Ethopia, so there's an argument to made that Somalia would specifically prop up an Oromo state to weaken any future revanchism on the part of *Ethiopia.
Simple. Prevent Shermarke's assassination. Transition from Aden Adde into Shermarke was first peaceful transition of government in African history.
A united stable Ethiopia will be a threat to alway Somalia
I was thinking along the of a Yugoslavia style break up but the violence subsiding as the different Ethiopian groups successfully break off with Somalian help rather then a soviet style break or Ethiopia lasting with a large scale civil war into the modern day
I doubt they will be able to reconquer the different groups especially if Somalia intervenes and the fear of a Ethiopian reconquest could drive them further into Somalia's arms
If Somalia's annexed the Ogaden, certainly not. The only rail line to Addis Ababa and Ethiopia's second most important airport are under Somalia's control at that point. If Somalia decides to close off the border, Ethiopia starves, no ifs, ands, or buts. Any united Ethiopia with in this sort of scenario is at the mercy of Somalia.
Could happen, I suppose. Demographic borders are messy in Ethiopia, though, even messier than in Yugoslavia. It'd be a nasty, nasty war if it turns into an ethnicity thing, and the countries that come out of it, if they're led by either of the dominant ethnic groups (Amhara or Oromo), most likely oppressive when it comes to their ethnic minorities. Plus, Ethiopia's an ancient, ancient state and idea, very much unlike Yugoslavia. I tend to doubt that there wouldn't be an attempt by at least one successor state to claim the title of 'One True Ethiopia'.
I never said they would win. I just said there's going to be conflict, likely low-level and long-running, contributing to lasting regional instability.
A good idea, but this doesn't really solve the basic problem, which is that the military is deeply dissatisfied with how the civilian government is approaching Somali populations outside Somalia, and the civilian government is unwilling to go to war for a Greater Somalia (both of which are not unreasonable points of view). As far as I'm concerned, this just pushes back the coup a little bit. Still, that could be an interesting TL and might even mean a better Somalia if it doesn't lead to a Barre government.
They can always build more rail lines, airports and other infrastructure. Its in Somalia's interest to have either an unstable united Ethiopia or a broken Ethiopia
With what money, I ask? Not only is Ethiopia vastly in debt after the war (they were IOTL even after winning), you have a government filled to the brim with kleptocrats and corruption, that, again, after winning IOTL, did little to nothing to solve the huge infrastructural issues that led to later famines. Let's say the Derg are overthrown postwar, and that there's a new government in power, one that miraculously avoids the problems of corruption that have plagued every modern Ethiopian government. Even then, they don't have, from the now-reduced tax and economic base (which in and of itself has been ravaged by years of mismanagement), the millions or more likely billions it would take to make Ethiopia's infrastructure capable of feeding the country without Somalia. Certainly, they could seek outside investment. But what company or state is going to want to invest in a war-ravaged, unstable country with not a lot going for it in terms of raw economic potential? Best case for a united Ethiopia after such a devastating war is a bleak, low-third-world economy largely dependent on its neighbors. For Somalia, this is a much better scenario than two or more states at each others' throats, given that any conflict is likely to spill over the border.
With all this being said though, I doubt I can convince you of my point of view or vice versa. Agree to disagree?
Was it? My impression was that serious environmental degradation was a key factor in driving the violent Somali foreign policy that resulted in the Ogaden war.
No argument that the Ogaden War was a disaster for Somalia, but from what little I've been able to learn about Somalia in this period, things were already heading downhill beforehand, and it is possible to conceive of the Somali state failing even with no war with Ethiopia. I've been finding it difficult to find good sources on the topic though, so maybe you just have better information than me here...
fasquardon
I mean yeah, it was a third-world African country so of course it had its issues, but what turned "issues" into "complete collapse of any government" was the Ogaden War. That broke Barre, pissed off the populace, and ensured the military wouldn't be strong enough to keep things together.
To expand on Asp's summary, you're right that a big driver was environmental degradation. The major one, however, was Somali nationalism, as the Ogaden represents one of the biggest populations of Somalis outside its borders. One of the major causes of Barre's coup was that the civilian government had done nothing to add Somali-majority territories to the country. In losing the war, Barre not only lost a good chunk of his military, but was also seen to have failed in one of his government's primary policies, effectively destroying his base in the military and in his own clan. An Ogaden victory will do wonders for the stability of Somalia and will likely mean a peaceful transition once Barre dies. Without any economic considerations, political stability is already a better Somalia.