A. I specified a POD after 1970, you can't change a coup that happened in 1953.No coup, wiser spending of oil into the country and you would probably have a more modern, democratic and liberal (i mean by islamic nations, Iran is relatively liberal) muslim majority country so long as separation of the state and religion remains in place.
This also means that the U.S. doesn't become best friends with Saudi and probably means Saudi are enemy #1 or 2 for the west. It changes everything with regards to foreign relations in that area.
I'd also imagine a democratic Iran has better relations with Israel perhaps as well as not being on good terms with Russia.
Combine all of this and you got a developed nation (probably 0.8+ HDI) with far less radicalisation, i.e. probably a model for a lot of islamic majority nations to follow.
A. I specified a POD after 1970, you can't change a coup that happened in 1953.
B. Mossadegh's government was not a democratic one. Just 2 weeks before the coup a referendum was held to suspend parliament and give Mossadegh dictatorial powers. Mossadegh's reign likely would've been just as oppressive as the Shah's the difference being that there'd be substantial influence from the communist Tudeh party and all the problems Marxism brings.
Mossadegh was a lot like Nasser. We all know how that has turned out.but eventually it is likely that there would have been some kind of democratic reform unless they turn into a hermit state, something I doubt would happen.
Hmm what about this: the MEK and commies take over instead of the Mullahs and run Iran until the fall of the Soviet Union. With the Fall of the Soviet Union they liberalize the country and transition into a more democratic socialist governement. Alternatively in the 1990s they are overthrown and a democratic republic is established.With a POD between 1970 and 1979, stop the Islamic revolution and have a transition to democracy some time around 1990. Is this even possible? If so, how different would the middle east be today?
It's the cold war, communist revolutions can happen anywhere. Although there is no precedent of a communist country transitioning into "democratic socialism".Hmm what about this: the MEK and commies take over instead of the Mullahs and run Iran until the fall of the Soviet Union. With the Fall of the Soviet Union they liberalize the country and transition into a more democratic socialist governement. Alternatively in the 1990s they are overthrown and a democratic republic is established.
How likely is this scenario?
Isn't an Afghanistan analogue more likely? There is going to be an Islamic backlash to an atheist state and the US does love to support jihads, especially if they bloody the Soviets.Hmm what about this: the MEK and commies take over instead of the Mullahs and run Iran until the fall of the Soviet Union. With the Fall of the Soviet Union they liberalize the country and transition into a more democratic socialist governement. Alternatively in the 1990s they are overthrown and a democratic republic is established.
How likely is this scenario?
Mossadegh's reign likely would've been just as oppressive as the Shah's the difference being that there'd be substantial influence from the communist Tudeh party and all the problems Marxism brings.
Not so fast. Communist control has been surprisingly resilient outside of Eastern Europe. Look at China, North Korea, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and Cuba. I think what would happen in this scenario is Iran would move from a Centrally planned economy to a Free Market one but there would still be little political freedom, now that I think of it, that's not too different from Iran IOTL.The only good thing would be that a Soviet Aligned People's Iranian Republic would have fallen apart in 1989 with all the others. Mossadegh would have been another Nasser.
Obviously, no Ayatollah if they go down this road. Cambodia is not Communist, but is hardly a democracy even if it is so on paper just an FYI.Not so fast. Communist control has been surprisingly resilient outside of Eastern Europe. Look at China, North Korea, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and Cuba. I think what would happen in this scenario is Iran would move from a Centrally planned economy to a Free Market one but there would still be little political freedom, now that I think of it, that's not too different from Iran IOTL.
Obviously, no Ayatollah if they go down this road. Cambodia is not Communist, but is hardly a democracy even if it is so on paper just an FYI.
With a POD between 1970 and 1979, stop the Islamic revolution and have a transition to democracy some time around 1990. Is this even possible? If so, how different would the middle east be today?
Averted? Postponed is more like it. The fall of the Shah did not happen because the Iranian population when crazy for hard line Islan, it happened because the guy was a despotGerald Ford winning the 1976 Presidential Election with Bob Dole as Vice President, President Ford would be much more willing to support the Shah than President Carter was in OTL and the revolution could have been averted.
Averted? Postponed is more like it. The fall of the Shah did not happen because the Iranian population when crazy for hard line Islam, it happened because the guy was a despot