AHC: A better fate for Iran

kernals12

Banned
With a POD between 1970 and 1979, stop the Islamic revolution and have a transition to democracy some time around 1990. Is this even possible? If so, how different would the middle east be today?
 
Probably only way is that you kill shah on 1970 but I am unsure that even his successor can anymore avoid revolution.
 
Maybe the shah listens to his advisors and does not spend the oil revenue acquired during the energy crisis (likely preventing the vast waste of resources and growth of corruption preying on 'modernization' schemes). Then when the recession hits in '75 state programs can be created to deal with the spike in unemployment engendering support for the state. A more modest modernization scheme can aid the economy and temper radical views.
 
No coup, wiser spending of oil into the country and you would probably have a more modern, democratic and liberal (i mean by islamic nations, Iran is relatively liberal) muslim majority country so long as separation of the state and religion remains in place.

This also means that the U.S. doesn't become best friends with Saudi and probably means Saudi are enemy #1 or 2 for the west. It changes everything with regards to foreign relations in that area.

I'd also imagine a democratic Iran has better relations with Israel perhaps as well as not being on good terms with Russia.

Combine all of this and you got a developed nation (probably 0.8+ HDI) with far less radicalisation, i.e. probably a model for a lot of islamic majority nations to follow.
 

kernals12

Banned
No coup, wiser spending of oil into the country and you would probably have a more modern, democratic and liberal (i mean by islamic nations, Iran is relatively liberal) muslim majority country so long as separation of the state and religion remains in place.

This also means that the U.S. doesn't become best friends with Saudi and probably means Saudi are enemy #1 or 2 for the west. It changes everything with regards to foreign relations in that area.

I'd also imagine a democratic Iran has better relations with Israel perhaps as well as not being on good terms with Russia.

Combine all of this and you got a developed nation (probably 0.8+ HDI) with far less radicalisation, i.e. probably a model for a lot of islamic majority nations to follow.
A. I specified a POD after 1970, you can't change a coup that happened in 1953.
B. Mossadegh's government was not a democratic one. Just 2 weeks before the coup a referendum was held to suspend parliament and give Mossadegh dictatorial powers. Mossadegh's reign likely would've been just as oppressive as the Shah's the difference being that there'd be substantial influence from the communist Tudeh party and all the problems Marxism brings.
 
A. I specified a POD after 1970, you can't change a coup that happened in 1953.
B. Mossadegh's government was not a democratic one. Just 2 weeks before the coup a referendum was held to suspend parliament and give Mossadegh dictatorial powers. Mossadegh's reign likely would've been just as oppressive as the Shah's the difference being that there'd be substantial influence from the communist Tudeh party and all the problems Marxism brings.

but eventually it is likely that there would have been some kind of democratic reform unless they turn into a hermit state, something I doubt would happen.
 
With a POD between 1970 and 1979, stop the Islamic revolution and have a transition to democracy some time around 1990. Is this even possible? If so, how different would the middle east be today?
Hmm what about this: the MEK and commies take over instead of the Mullahs and run Iran until the fall of the Soviet Union. With the Fall of the Soviet Union they liberalize the country and transition into a more democratic socialist governement. Alternatively in the 1990s they are overthrown and a democratic republic is established.

How likely is this scenario?
 

kernals12

Banned
Hmm what about this: the MEK and commies take over instead of the Mullahs and run Iran until the fall of the Soviet Union. With the Fall of the Soviet Union they liberalize the country and transition into a more democratic socialist governement. Alternatively in the 1990s they are overthrown and a democratic republic is established.

How likely is this scenario?
It's the cold war, communist revolutions can happen anywhere. Although there is no precedent of a communist country transitioning into "democratic socialism".
 
Hmm what about this: the MEK and commies take over instead of the Mullahs and run Iran until the fall of the Soviet Union. With the Fall of the Soviet Union they liberalize the country and transition into a more democratic socialist governement. Alternatively in the 1990s they are overthrown and a democratic republic is established.

How likely is this scenario?
Isn't an Afghanistan analogue more likely? There is going to be an Islamic backlash to an atheist state and the US does love to support jihads, especially if they bloody the Soviets.
 
Mossadegh's reign likely would've been just as oppressive as the Shah's the difference being that there'd be substantial influence from the communist Tudeh party and all the problems Marxism brings.

The only good thing would be that a Soviet Aligned People's Iranian Republic would have fallen apart in 1989 with all the others. Mossadegh would have been another Nasser.
 

kernals12

Banned
The only good thing would be that a Soviet Aligned People's Iranian Republic would have fallen apart in 1989 with all the others. Mossadegh would have been another Nasser.
Not so fast. Communist control has been surprisingly resilient outside of Eastern Europe. Look at China, North Korea, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and Cuba. I think what would happen in this scenario is Iran would move from a Centrally planned economy to a Free Market one but there would still be little political freedom, now that I think of it, that's not too different from Iran IOTL.
 

samcster94

Banned
Not so fast. Communist control has been surprisingly resilient outside of Eastern Europe. Look at China, North Korea, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and Cuba. I think what would happen in this scenario is Iran would move from a Centrally planned economy to a Free Market one but there would still be little political freedom, now that I think of it, that's not too different from Iran IOTL.
Obviously, no Ayatollah if they go down this road. Cambodia is not Communist, but is hardly a democracy even if it is so on paper just an FYI.
 
Obviously, no Ayatollah if they go down this road. Cambodia is not Communist, but is hardly a democracy even if it is so on paper just an FYI.

Oh, he could be around.

OTL, Khomeini spent years in exile. Initially, he was exiled to Bursa, Turkey in November 1964. In October 1965, he moved to Najaf, Iraq, until 1978, when he was expelled by Saddam, no longer a useful foil against the Shah, too troublesome. Khomeini went to a Paris suburb for a few months before returning to Iran.
So in this ATL, he continues to make speeches from some other country in exile that are then replayed in Iran
 
Shah dies of leukemia in 1977, his son comes to power with a strong regency of military and industrial backers, and the internal Iraq difficulties result in many Iraqis fleeing to Iran instead. Saddam mistakes inexperience for weakness in late 1980 and invades Arabistan, unintentionally uniting the country as a result prior to his own deposition from power in early 1983. Because of the course of the war and the new Shah's leniency towards its people, the Iraqis become a strong friend of Tehran while the Afghani Communists find trouble just over their border as Tehran supports a much more pro-western Mujahadeen. With the fall of Afghanistan comes an Iranian invasion welcomed by many followed shortly by the fall of Communism and the rise of the Caspian Trade Organization, bringing Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan under one bloc with Syria, Lebanon, Somalia, Pakistan, Oman, Yemen, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Djibouti, and Turkey as "observers". As it solidifies the 'new Rial' becomes one of the stronger currencies while Farsi becomes a popular trade language for much of the region. By 2015 there is talk of political union, not just economic cooperation, and the completion of the Sun Station permits a manned lunar flyby in late 2017 with anticipated moon landing in 2018. With a development level of 0.75, life in Iran and the CTO is vastly better than 50 years ago and a permanent place on the UN security council is all bit assured.
 
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Teejay

Gone Fishin'
With a POD between 1970 and 1979, stop the Islamic revolution and have a transition to democracy some time around 1990. Is this even possible? If so, how different would the middle east be today?

Ronald Reagan winning the 1976 Republican Primary and then winning the 1976 election. President Reagan (Vice President Richard Schweiker) would be much more willing to support the Shah than President Carter was in OTL. The Iranian revolution would have not likely occurred with the USA supporting the Shah and Khomeini dies in exile in France.
 

Pangur

Donor
Gerald Ford winning the 1976 Presidential Election with Bob Dole as Vice President, President Ford would be much more willing to support the Shah than President Carter was in OTL and the revolution could have been averted.
Averted? Postponed is more like it. The fall of the Shah did not happen because the Iranian population when crazy for hard line Islan, it happened because the guy was a despot
 

Teejay

Gone Fishin'
Averted? Postponed is more like it. The fall of the Shah did not happen because the Iranian population when crazy for hard line Islam, it happened because the guy was a despot

That is true, although it would be unlikely that President Reagan would have facilitated Khomeini returning from exile in France. It could have been likely that civil war could have broken out in Iran between the Army which was then loyal to the Shah (supported by the United States) and Leftists being supported by the Soviet Union. Although the war would also involve the Soviet Union (supporting the leftists) and Iraq (supporting the Shah's Army).
 
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