AHC: A Bengal-dominated Pakistan

Pakistan has, since its inception, been dominated by Punjabis who make up a sizeable plurality of its population. This was even true when Bangladesh was know as East Pakistan, when Pakistan was a military junta and before that a dominion. Population-wise, prior to Bangladesh’s independence, Pakistan was majority-Bengali. This, however, did not result in real political control at all, as the military junta excluded Bengalis from the military and from political control. The reality that East Pakistan made up a majority of Pakistan’s population did not need to be touched upon until 1970, when Pakistan’s first general election (not including presidential elections, which discarded the popular vote with an American-inspired electoral college) was held - an entire twenty-three years after becoming independent. The result was a victory for the Awami League, representative of the Bengali people, and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, an East Pakistani, was the genuinely elected Prime Minister of Pakistan. Yet, the military immediately refused the legislature to convene, and arrested Mujib. The result was the horrific Bangladesh Liberation War, where Yahya Khan, the genocidal military leader of Pakistan who stated, “Kill three million of them, and the rest will eat out of our hands”. Two hundred thousand Bengali women were raped, with twenty five thousand becoming pregnant. An Indian intervention meant that the Bengali genocide stopped at a “mere” three hundred thousand, frustrating Yahya Khan’s bloodthirsty desires. Sheikh Rahman became the leader of the new country of Bengal - unfortunately, he was soon assassinated and Bangladesh’s democracy perished early. And unfortunately, Pakistani war criminals were never tried for their crimes against humanity.

Yahya Khan was by no means the only leader of Pakistan to hate Bangladesh -his predecessor Ayub Khan stated “East Bengalis…have all the inhibitions of downtrodden races … their popular complexes, exclusiveness and … defensive aggressiveness … emerge from this historical background”. This is very reminiscent of British racial theory, and is simply a despicable statement to make.

Despite all this, the fact remains that Bengalis made up a majority of Pakistan’s population and would surely dominate Pakistani politics in a fair and democratic system, as the 1970 election demonstrated. But Pakistan was not a fair and democratic system and so that meant nothing. My challenge to you is to make East Pakistan the dominant half of Pakistan.
 
I'm not clear enough on all the details, but could you somehow have the military be dominated by Bengalis rather than Punjabis?
 
I'm not clear enough on all the details, but could you somehow have the military be dominated by Bengalis rather than Punjabis?

Unfortunately the military was a relic of the British Indian Army, which disproportionately recruited from the Muslim areas of (what became) West Pakistan due to the "Martial Races" theory. The newly independent Pakistani military were firm believers in this theory.

Also there was no shared national consciousness between West Pakistan and East Pakistan.
 

PhilippeO

Banned
a massive rebellion by Baluchi and Pashtun soon after independence ? with Mudajir (Muslim refugee from India) flees again to Bengals. while Punjabs fall under emergency military rule.
 
I'm not clear enough on all the details, but could you somehow have the military be dominated by Bengalis rather than Punjabis?

Pretty difficult. Under Ayub Khan’s military junta, Pashtuns were brought into the military as Ayub Khan himself was a Pashtun, but they were considered a martial race by the British, unlike the Bengalis. Also, bringing in Bengalis may not be enough - although the few Bengalis in the Pakistani military did mutiny to form the nucleus of the Mukti Bahini, many Pakistani war criminals were actually Bengali.
 
a massive rebellion by Baluchi and Pashtun soon after independence ? with Mudajir (Muslim refugee from India) flees again to Bengals. while Punjabs fall under emergency military rule.

It's Baloch, not "Balochi". Balochi is the language, Baloch is the culture. All you'll do by saying "Balochi" is make Balochs mad. "Balochistani" is a terrible way to call us, too.
 
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Easy, have Fatima Jinnah be President for 5 years or more.

I think I should elaborate on this point, but I honestly believe that Bengali independence was inevitable from 1965 unless you can find a way to get Mujeeb into power from 1965-1971. Fatima Jinnah had the support of Bengalis, sympathized with the plight of the Bengalis (and as such, the Bhola cyclone would be better dealt with) and was support by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman himself. You give Fatima Jinnah 5/6 more years in her life and East Pakistan could be properly developed, Bangla would be made one of the official languages and Bengali culture would not be suppressed. Hell, have the 1965 war go even worse for Pakistan and the Martial Race theory would be beaten to a pulp (a good start was to make the theory not as strong in the first place). I also doubt the military would go after Fatima Jinnah and try to overthrow her. In fact, why would they? Unless Fatima Jinnah loses a war against India in her presidency I doubt they would. Fatima Jinnah had the support of Islamists, Bengalis, Socialists, Democrats in general (whether they were Liberal or Conservative). With Fatima Jinnah as president a coup is unlikely because when all the coup d'etats in Pakistan happened the military dictators (at first) had the support of the opposition. With Fatima Jinnah having this motley crew of a coalition it is unlikely they would be some opposition to support a coup against her. Besides, look at her elder brother and how he is viewed amongst Pakistanis back then and now.
 
Fatima Jinnah had the support of Islamists, Bengalis, Socialists, Democrats in general (whether they were Liberal or Conservative).

Do you really think she can satisfy so many diverse groups? It would be a real balancing act, an almost impossible one.

Hell, have the 1965 war go even worse for Pakistan and the Martial Race theory would be beaten to a pulp (a good start was to make the theory not as strong in the first place).

Would it? The military hated Fatima, and if she tried to bring in Bengalis into the Pashtun- and Punjabi-dominated military, she would surely be defied by a military that hates her guts.

And, of course, if Fatima chose to hold a general election, the Awami League would surely win a majority of seats, and I can’t expect the military to appreciate Mujib becoming Fatima’s prime minister.
 
Would it? The military hated Fatima, and if she tried to bring in Bengalis into the Pashtun- and Punjabi-dominated military, she would surely be defied by a military that hates her guts.

And, of course, if Fatima chose to hold a general election, the Awami League would surely win a majority of seats, and I can’t expect the military to appreciate Mujib becoming Fatima’s prime minister.

Well, the Martial Race theory is never used today in Pakistan after 1971, and I did say if you can get the 1965 war to go even worse for Pakistan, and have the theory still be there but not be as strong it may silently die.

Yes, the AL would win a majority of seats but this was in the 1960s and the 1970s when the President of Pakistan still held considerable power, and Fatima Jinnah was a Gujarati. Mujeeb would be at the whims of her as she could decide whether or not to dismiss his government as Ghulam Mustafa Khar did in the 90s with Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif . Hell, he may not even win a majority (only 10 seats from a plurality in 1970 IOTL) seeing as how a pro-Bengali president is in power he can't really say "The government is neglecting us! We make the majority and they don't care!".
 
Well, the Martial Race theory is never used today in Pakistan after 1971

The reason that is the case is because most ethnic groups in Pakistan are “martial races”.

Mujeeb would be at the whims of her as she could decide whether or not to dismiss his government

I can’t really expect Mujib to accept dismissal very well - in fact, he would probably stop supporting Fatima if she dismissed the Awami League’s government, thus removing a considerable amount of her government’s support. Keeping together her coalition would be really difficult for Fatima, and dismissing the Awami League would surely destroy it.

Furthermore, as Prime Minister, Mujib would surely push something like his Six Points. I really can’t expect the military to appreciate this, considering IOTL it caused the military junta to chuck Mujib into jail.

Hell, he may not even win a majority (only 10 seats from a plurality in 1970 IOTL) seeing as how a pro-Bengali president is in power he can't really say "The government is neglecting us! We make the majority and they don't care!".

I fully expect the Awami League to win virtually all Bengali seats because of ethnic polarization, which would be enough for a majority.
 
I kind of find it ironic that this thread is being made 46 years after Bangladesh won the 1971 war.

The reason that is the case is because most ethnic groups in Pakistan are “martial races”.

You have to understand that many Pakistani generals are Muhajirs, including Pervez Musharraf, who was born in Delhi.

I can’t really expect Mujib to accept dismissal very well - in fact, he would probably stop supporting Fatima if she dismissed the Awami League’s government, thus removing a considerable amount of her government’s support. Keeping together her coalition would be really difficult for Fatima, and dismissing the Awami League would surely destroy it.

Furthermore, as Prime Minister, Mujib would surely push something like his Six Points. I really can’t expect the military to appreciate this, considering IOTL it caused the military junta to chuck Mujib into jail.

Mujib would had pushed for more autonomy but the Six Points movement didn't happen until 1966. With someone like Fatima Jinnah as president he might advocate for something more moderate.

I fully expect the Awami League to win virtually all Bengali seats because of ethnic polarization, which would be enough for a majority.

They didn't even win all of them in 1970 (two Bengali seats were won by the Muslim League, rest by the AL), so why would they win all of them in the 1960s?
 
You have to understand that many Pakistani generals are Muhajirs, including Pervez Musharraf, who was born in Delhi.

Muhajirs has no place within the British racial hierarchy because they weren’t a major Indian race.

Mujib would had pushed for more autonomy but the Six Points movement didn't happen until 1966. With someone like Fatima Jinnah as president he might advocate for something more moderate.

I doubt it. Mujib wouldn’t suddenly forget how badly Bengalis were treated by the military junta. He would seek more autonomy. I also think he would attempt to establish two separate currencies for the East and West so as to avoid the flight of capital to West Pakistan (which would most likely occur even under Fatima).

Furthermore, Mujib wasn’t a very good ruler of Bangladesh. Read The Black Coat for a good critical work on him. Much of the reason Bangladesh failed to achieve stability and democracy can be set at his feet. Despite being the founding father of Bangladesh, he was overthrown. He wouldn’t be a very good prime minister of Pakistan. And naturally, the force most likely to overthrow him is the military.

They didn't even win all of them in 1970 (two Bengali seats were won by the Muslim League, rest by the AL), so why would they win all of them in the 1960s?

Drastic regional polarization, which is an inevitability in such a disparate country.
 
Muhajirs has no place within the British racial hierarchy because they weren’t a major Indian race.

People that came from UP, Bihar etc. were members of a race that most likely wasn't considered a martial race.

I doubt it. Mujib wouldn’t suddenly forget how badly Bengalis were treated by the military junta. He would seek more autonomy. I also think he would attempt to establish two separate currencies for the East and West so as to avoid the flight of capital to West Pakistan (which would most likely occur even under Fatima).

Furthermore, Mujib wasn’t a very good ruler of Bangladesh. Read The Black Coat for a good critical work on him. Much of the reason Bangladesh failed to achieve stability and democracy can be set at his feet. Despite being the founding father of Bangladesh, he was overthrown. He wouldn’t be a very good prime minister of Pakistan. And naturally, the force most likely to overthrow him is the military.

In this scenario, Fatima Jinnah becomes president in 1965. The SPM began in 1966 IOTL, and I think Mujib would give her a chance. After all, he supported her and such drastic change can't be accomplished in a year. Note that Sheikh Mujibur Rahman as PM of Bangladesh pardoned the Razakars who fought for Pakistan in 1971 and participated in the genocide of Bengalis. If he was willing to forgive that, he would most likely try to create a more moderate Six Points.

Maybe Mujib if he becomes PM of Pakistan in this scenario wouldn't be the greatest but look at him from an OTL standpoint. He might have saved the Pakistani Union, making East Pakistan a loyal province of Pakistan with separatism not being as widespread.

Also it was either W. Pakistan and E. Pakistan have a separate currency but that point also said "or if this is not feasible, there should be one currency for the whole country, but effective constitutional provisions should be introduced to stop the flight of capital from East to West Pakistan."

Drastic regional polarization, which is an inevitability in such a disparate country.

I still doubt that they would win all of the seats if they weren't able to in 1970.
 
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