AHC: a “Maoist” North Korea & a “Soviet” North Korea

[The Militant Doberman]

During the OTL Cold War North Korea managed to play both China and U.S.S.R. against one another, receiving aid from both without committing itself to a fully to either.

However, there were factions within North Korea that wanted to see the nation align with one of its bigger neighbors (I’ve read about several pro-Soviet politicians and factions that existed at one point or another in NK, but I assume pro-Mao factions were a thing too).

Your challenge is to come up with a situation where North Korea (sometime post 1950s Korean War) is split by the “Maoists” and “Soviet” factions into a pro-China nation and a pro-USSR nation.

What would be the most likely borders of the new nations? What would be the political implications of a tri-state Korean Peninsula? Which of the 2 “North Koreas” would the South Korean leadership favour politically? How would the global powers react? And how would the peninsula develop (economically & politically) going forward?

 

[walmart]

You won't get two nations, You will get a civil war or more likely a series of coups and counter coups.

 

[The Militant Doberman]

You won't get two nations, You will get a civil war or more likely a series of coups and counter coups.

Never said it would be a peaceful process...

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

You won't get two nations, You will get a civil war or more likely a series of coups and counter coups.

Yeah, and one of the two factions will do something crazy like attack South Korea or Japan. At which point SK expands absorbing half of the attacker.

 

[canute]

Could this trigger a war between China and the Soviet? I imagine a civil war between two factions would be so unstable that other countries would intervene. Maby bothe of the communist powers move in to prewent rhe other one getting an advantage, or risk the Americans moving closer to their border.

 

[walmart]

Yeah, and one of the two factions will do something crazy like attack South Korea or Japan. At which point SK expands absorbing half of the attacker.

North Korea is not insane. They just have a different set of goals then the west. Which is regime survival.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

North Korea is not insane. They just have a different set of goals then the west. Which is regime survival.

Riiiight.
In any case I was talking about this two faction/state NK. The will be tempted to constantly one-up the other in 'fervour', 'ideological purity', and 'adherence to Marxist(Leninist)'. Somebody on one side or the other is going to create an incident that can't be ignored. The current NK régime does this regularly (OK, every few years), whether it be flying a missile over Japan, setting off a nuke, attacking someone's gunboat in nonNK waters, etc.
With TWO sides competing to show 'strength', these things will escalate. And with the two states struggling with each other, both will be worse basket cases than OTL NK, and neither will be as much as half as strong.

 

[walmart]

The will be tempted to constantly one-up the other in 'fervour', 'ideological purity', and 'adherence to Marxist(Leninist)'. Somebody on one side or the other is going to create an incident that can't be ignored.

Expect they would be too focused on each other and wouldn't want to involve Neutral third parties

The current NK régime does this regularly (OK, every few years), whether it be flying a missile over Japan, setting off a nuke, attacking someone's gunboat in nonNK waters, etc.

Yet war still hasn't happened and the Kims get billions in Foreign aid by doing these provocations and have remained in power with no resistance since 1953.

 

[overoceans]

I agree with Noscoper that North Korea is not insane, and that the main goal of the regime is survival. (Which is not the same thing as saying that they're a bunch of good guys.)

But if a specifically Maoist North Korea(something which never existed in OTL) comes about, AND they get caught up in the Cultural Revolution, they could follow China's lead and do some crzy-assed shit, like trashing foreign embassies, which would provoke some conflict with the west. Of course, they'd probably need Chinese backing to do this, because by themselves, they probably wouldn't be able to resist the blowback from the larger powers.

And, once again, "If Hitler wasn't an enti-semite.." applies here: A North Korea that dived head-first into the Cultural Revolution wouldn't be the North Korea we know today. In real-life, Kim Il Sung hated what the Red Guards did.