AHC: 7 Years War, same results overseas, Prussia loses Silesia to Austria, but nothing else

Prussia will look for an opportunity to retake Silesia but they may be waiting a long time.

The Franco-Austrian alliance is stable I think. Austria with Silesia is a status quo power and France is tired.

Russia will likely upset the balance of power in the east and this will present Prussia with a dilemma. Do they side with and risk someday facing Russia alone. Or do they finagle something like the First Partition of Poland by playing Austria and Russia off one another. Probably the latter.

The next opportunity is the ARW. Maybe they align with Britain and thus drag Austria in for a rematch.
 

raharris1973

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No idea.



I think Russia are likely to go along, I don't know about Austria, they will likely be against the partition, but on the other hand they risk Prussia doing it anyway, so it's better to get part of the cake, if the other will eat it anyway. Of course Austria may be in a position to gain more as they're stronger. Maybe they will take everything south of the Southern Buh River too (if they plan to conquer Moldovia and western Yedisan)

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Would Russia tolerate the Austrians seizing south-central Ukraine up to the southern Bug, and *blocking* Russian chances to reach Moldavia and the Balkans? Russia had already campaigned in Moldavia in earlier wars I believe.
 
The Austro-Prussian war wasn't 1 on 1 either it was Prussia, it's tiny vassals and Italy vs Austria and its German allies and the Austrians got thoroughly trounced. Face it Prussia has never had too much issue matching and even exceeding Austria on the battlefield, to deny it is to deny history.

I don't recall saying he was a great genius, I said he isn't as stupid as you are saying he is.
Piss off all his allys perhaps but so what? Id argue having Prussia in your pocket is worth it.
Angering the Swedes? Who cares they pose no real threat to Russia in the long term
Angering the French? Who cares they are on the other side of Europe
Angering the Habsburgs? It was only a matter of time, they inevitably going to butt heads as ottomans power receded.
Prussia even in the long term has basically no conflicting interests.
Attacking the Danes? Whatever amounts to white peace.

So Russia suffers in basically no way in the long term and paralyzes a long term strategic rival, opposed to crushing the prussians which nets them what exactly? Some east Prussian rye fields at most.

Are you serious?

During the Austro-Prussian War, Austria fought on two fronts where they were outnumbered numerically. Austria's allies in Germany contributed practically nothing (except Saxony and I think Hanover, whom fell rather quickly to superior numbers). Prussia's military strength is consistently overstated to ridiculous points: While Prussia's performance during the Third Silesian War is definitely admirable after Russia betrayed its allies, but the truth is very much that Prussia had gotten insanely lucky through Peter's stupidity. They would never have made that comeback in the first place without the Miracle of the House of Brandenburg(tm). Meanwhile, during the Austrian Succession War and Austro-Prussian War, the other two major wars between the two powers, Prussia succeeded through superior diplomacy by isolating Austria and forcing it to split between multiple fronts. This isn't denying history: in fact, it's more disingenuous to downplay the non-military factors that helped secure its most important victories (i.e. good diplomacy, luck and geopolitical situation) and how easily it could have been turned around. That's why we have alternate history in the first place.

It's also very disingenuous to handwave the consequences of Russia's betrayal. The only reason that the long-term consequences were minimal is because of Catherine's coup and the latter diplomatic success in rebuilding Russia's diplomatic reputation. It's only through pure hindsight that we know that Russia angering literally all of Europe outside of Prussia and the UK didn't matter in the end. I could easily handwave it as well because all those consequences could have been avoided and rendered moot if Russia had been decisively defeated; winning over Prussia would have become meaningless and Russia would have become isolated.

Funny that you mention East Prussia: isn't it what the Soviet Union ended up annexing into Russia at the end of WW2? Are you seriously ignoring Königsberg's strategic importance for Russia? It gives them even stronger potential influence over Poland and gives them a very powerful warm-water port, cementing Russia's power in the Baltic more than ever.
 
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