AHC: 21st Century U.S.-Cuba War

With a POD on or after January 1, 2000, how can there be a war between the U.S. and Fidel Castro's Cuba? I know this is a very high hump to get over, but does anybody have any ideas on how this might happen? It might not be completely impossible. Castro was always kind of a whack. He seriously lobbied the USSR from the Missile Crisis into the 1980s to launch a preemptive nuclear strike against the U.S., and invaded Angola without asking the Soviets first. They had to scramble to contain the fallout with the U.S. and to provide logistical support (before that the Cubans were doing the best they could with three ancient planes and some merchant ships). Talk about biting off more than you can chew.

My best effort is that something like this story from @gtrof happens. We see 9/11 as in OTL, but with a Second Korean War. It gets seriously ugly, and the U.S. is bogged all the way down, requiring a larger effort than the Persian Gulf War to win it plus the troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. Unlike in that story though, Kim Jong-il uses gas on Seoul, leading the U.S. to nuke Pyongyang under its doctrine that any attack with WMD's will meet with a proportionate nuclear response. This kills dozens of Cuban embassy staffers (they maintain a large diplomatic mission there) and Fidelito Castro, his son who was there as part of a surprise"peaceful nuclear program" solidarity meeting with the North Koreans. Fidelito was the head of the country's atomic energy commission and the DPRK and Cuba have strong ties, so it is plausible he could be there. Castro is enraged by the death of his only recognized child and the destruction of his country's embassy and frightened by how the U.S. is invading everything in sight including one of his main allies. He decides to retaliate by resolving the issue of the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base through force of arms, and off we go. His beliefs is that this is a golden opportunity because for once the U.S., even if it fights back, won't be able to hurt Cuba too badly because they are too tied down. So even if Cuba loses it won't be existential.

Yeah, I acknowledge it's pretty ASB'y but Castro had a death wish for his entire country up until twenty years before this and it wouldn't be the weirdest thing that ever happened.

What do y'all think? Like it/got any other ideas?
 
Actually, its rather plausible. Cuba is one of the only countries to still have a communist government. And it still had bitter relations with America. The setup here is a little bizarre but there's a more easy way to have this scenario. Castro publicly seeks to have stronger ties with North Korea, Iran and Iraq. That's ALL of the dreaded "Axis of Evil". And if George W. Bush could fabricate evidence on Saddam Hussein, he can easily do so with Fidel Castro. The Americans would launch an easy invasion that wouldn't last long at last. Castro would be overthrown and democracy would be installed in Cuba. The Cubans living in Florida would be jubilant and likely move back to the new Cuba. China nor North Korea would intervene militarily, but they'd likely denounce America's attack, especially Kim Jong-il. What happens to Castro is uncertain, whether he's tried and executed like Saddam or living in exile in North Korea or China until his death.
 
Actually, its rather plausible. Cuba is one of the only countries to still have a communist government. And it still had bitter relations with America. The setup here is a little bizarre but there's a more easy way to have this scenario. Castro publicly seeks to have stronger ties with North Korea, Iran and Iraq. That's ALL of the dreaded "Axis of Evil". And if George W. Bush could fabricate evidence on Saddam Hussein, he can easily do so with Fidel Castro. The Americans would launch an easy invasion that wouldn't last long at last. Castro would be overthrown and democracy would be installed in Cuba. The Cubans living in Florida would be jubilant and likely move back to the new Cuba. China nor North Korea would intervene militarily, but they'd likely denounce America's attack, especially Kim Jong-il. What happens to Castro is uncertain, whether he's tried and executed like Saddam or living in exile in North Korea or China until his death.

Bingo. Actually, I can refine that a bit. Have Castro start selling nuclear know-how and tech support in violation of the relevant U.N. sanctions to the North Koreans and Iranians for cash, minerals, and oil. He figures that even if he gets caught he'll get a slap on the wrist and nobody will care enough to actually invade and knock him out. With George W. in power, turns out he's wrong.

That could work. It's even a legitimate casus belli.
 
Way what @ArtisticCritic suggested could work.

Another might be that Romney wins '12 election (might be bit difficult but possible) and then Cuba and Venezuela forms closer relationships and might begin work with Iran. So USA decides invade Cuba and Venezuela.

Or Trump gets one of his mad moments and order air strikes against Cuba.
 
Way what @ArtisticCritic suggested could wo

Another might be that Romney wins '12 election (might be bit difficult but possible) and then Cuba and Venezuela forms closer relationships and might begin work with Iran. So USA decides invade Cuba and Venezuela.

Or Trump gets one of his mad moments and order air strikes against Cuba.

We gotta keep current politics, but yeah, that could work if the cooperation involved a legit casus belli. Cuba is a state sponsor of terror; if it could be proven that they acted as a base for Hezbollah to carry out a foreign attack like the one on the Bulgarian Bus and the Argentinian Synagogue, that could work.

Venezuela, though...that would be a hard sell.
 
Venezuela, though...that would be a hard sell.

The terrain there doesn't help much either militarily.

Cuba has, or at least could have the appearance of a 'neater' environment, being an island that can eventually be worn down and cut off more easily. You'd need a POD pre-Iraq War for it to work, I'd think-even if you have the occupation of the latter go ahistorically and implausibly well, the troops will still be tied down for some time.

My guess would be that Castro takes the 'unhelpful' Saddam approach to cheer the 9/11 attacks rather than the immediate condemnation that other traditional rivals did. Then he misstates his political vulnerability and angles for the previously mentioned ties to the other "Axis" members mentioned in the thread, and thus after the conventional phase of OEF, finishing off the long-time annoyance on their doorstep is next on the menu. This is a little ASB because it requires Castro to be as much of an international relations doofus as Saddam when all the evidence suggests he wasn't, but for a TL it can work.
 
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