AHC:1978 Republican victory

samcster94

Banned
In OTL, Jimmy Carter held the House in 1978. This rarely happens in midterms, as the other party can rally voters much better in such elections. What would it take for him not to hold the House???
 
Well, he did lose 15 seats, which is below the usual average for congressional midterms, but Presidents don't necessarily lose a house majority, it's generally around 20-30 seats on their first midterm. It's a pretty small sample you can go from, because Dems held the House for so long, but between JFK, LBJ, Carter, Clinton, and Obama, only Clinton and Obama lost house majorities, and Bush lost the GOP house majority in 2006, but actually gained seats in 2002.

If you were going to have the Dems lose the House in 1978, you'd need to have some kind of Democratic-wide scandal in congress, or some massively destabilizing event for Carter's popularity, because Dems had a very large majority from the Watergate class in 1974. Republicans won 15 seats, to bring the total to 158 in 1978, so they'd need to win 60 more seats to get to a 218 seat majority.
 
Only three years afire Nixon resigned, the GOP brand was still tainted.

More important is that the things that sent the Democrats into a tailspin in 1980 had not yet occurred. No Iran hostage crisis (in fact the Shah was still in power), no Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, no grain embargo (people have forgotten how much that hurt the Democrats in farm states in 1980). Gas prices in 1978 averaged .65 per gallon, compared to .88 in 1979, $1.22 in 1980 and $1.35 in 1981. http://www.thestate.com/news/databases/article68603317.html Unemployment in November 1978 was 6.0% compared to the 7.7% it had been in November 1976 and the 7.5% it would be in November 1980. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/UNRATE.txt The Consumer Price Index, to be sure, had risen by 7.6% in 1978 but that was still tame compared to the 11.3% increase in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/comm...consumer-price-index-and-inflation-rates-1913 Real GDP had increased by 5.0% in 1978--compared to only 2.8% in 1979 and an actual decrease of 0.3% in 1980. See Table No. 724 at https://books.google.com/books?id=UYewkRy1_sMC&pg=PA434

Given that *after all those things*as well as the divisive Ted Kennedy challenge to Carter--and while losing the presidency by ten points--the Democrats retained control of the House in 1980, it seems unrealistic to expect them to lose it in 1978. What happened in 1978 was a "normal" midterm loss of seats for the Democrats under the circumstances. (Especially given that they had made huge gains in 1974 and kept almost all of them in 1976, some losses were to be expected.)

Another thing to remember: in the 1970's (and even the 1980s) even many conservative white southerners who often voted for Republicans in presidential elections voted for conservative Democrats in congressional elections.
 
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1978 was a midterm but not a wave. Even a wave wouldn't have cost the Democrats Congress given how big their majorities were, but it would have led to greater Democrat losses.
 
. . . Another thing to remember: in the 1970's (and even the 1980s) even many conservative white southerners who often voted for Republicans in presidential elections voted for conservative Democrats in congressional elections.
This might be the hinge point samcster is looking for -- an earlier upsurge of credible candidates running as Republicans in the American south.
 
This might be the hinge point samcster is looking for -- an earlier upsurge of credible candidates running as Republicans in the American south.

But remember that *even in 1980* Carter not only carried GA but came very close to carrying six other ex-Confederate states: AL, AR, MS, NC, SC, TN. Ironically, the South, the area of the country where John Anderson did the worst, may be the one area (apart from the Northeast) where he cost Carter some electoral votes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1980 If Carter was fairly popular in the South even in 1980, it's hard to see the GOP making much headway there in 1978.

In fact, in OTL, the only southern seats the Democrats lost in 1978 were AR-02 (Jim Guy Tucker had retired to run for the Senate), GA-06 (where John Flynt had retired, and Newt Gingrich won his seat), SC-04 (where James Mann retired); TX-21 (where Bob Krueger retired to run for the Senate); and TX-22 (where incumbent Bob Gammage was narrowly defeated by Ron Paul). In other words, exactly one southern Democratic House incumbent was defeated (though a couple may have retired because they knew they faced difficult challenges). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1978

Incidentally, the Democrats gained two seats in FL, one against an incumbent. So the Democrats only suffered a net loss of three southern House seats in 1978 (four if you include KY).
 
In OTL, Jimmy Carter held the House in 1978. This rarely happens in midterms, as the other party can rally voters much better in such elections. What would it take for him not to hold the House???

It is not true that it "rarely happens" that the party in the White House holds the House of Representatives after two years. The Democrats retained control in 1914, 1934, and 1962 as well as 1978. The Republicans retained control in 1922 and 2002. In 1970 and 1982 the GOP did not "lose" control of the House because they did not have it even when they had won control of the White House two years earlier.

In short, in the 20th and 21st centuries, the *only* cases (so far) of a party gaining control of the White House and then losing control of the House of Representatives two years later were 1954, 1994, and 2010. (It is of course normal for the party in the White House to lose some seats--and that happened in 1978, the Democrats' losses being about what one would expect.)
 
If Democrats lost all the races they won by 6% or less.

1978 Senate elections
Robert Byrd-Democratic: 57-4 47.6%
Howard Baker-Republican: 42+4 50.6%
Independent: 1_
100 seats
51 for majority

Michigan: Incumbent Robert P Griffin(R) defeats Carl Levin(D)
West Virginia: Arch A Moore(R) defeats incumbent Jennings Randolph(D)

1978 gubernatorial elections
Democratic: 25-12
Republican: 25+13

Kansas: Incumbent Robert F Bennett(R) defeats John W Carlin(D)
Massachusetts: Francis W Hatch Jr(R) defeats Edward J King(D)
New Hampshire: Incumbent Meldrim Thomson Jr(R) defeats Hugh Gallen(D)
New Mexico: Joe Skeen(R) defeats Bruce King(D)
New York: Perry Duryea(R) defeats incumbent Hugh Carey(D)
Oklahoma: Ron Shotts(R) defeats George Nigh(D)
Wyoming: John C Ostlund(R) defeats incumbent Edgar Herschler(D)
 
It is notable though that 1978 was the last time Democrats 'won' a midterm election with a Democratic President, though Obama and Clinton are a small sample size, but still Democrats haven't been able to have a Democratic President and Democratic Congress for more than 2 years since 1978. Though it's possible if the Democrats win in 2020 that could be different as they'd likely control redistricting and have a favorable Senate map in 2022.
 
If Democrats lost all the House races in 1978 they won in OTL by *ten* points or less, they would *still* easily control the House (seats with asterisks are those which the Democrats won by five points or less):

01 AZ-02 52.5-45.4
02 CA-03 53.4-46.6
03 CA-35 54.0-46.0
04 CO-02 52.9-47.1
05 CO-03 49.3-49.0 *
06 CT-05 52.3-47.7 *
07 IL-10 50.2-49.8 *
08 IN-06 52.2-47.6 *
09 LA-04 50.1-49.9 *
10 MD-08 51.3-48.7 *
11 MA-06 53.8-46.2
12 MI-03 51.3-48.7 *
13 MI-10 51.5-48.5 *
14 MI-12 54.9-45.1
15 NE-02 52.3-47.7 *
16 NJ-07 52.5-46.6
17 NJ-15 48.3-35.8 *
18 NY-02 54.9-45.1
19 NY-03 50.9-47.9 *
20 NY-09 54.2-44.4
21 NY-23 51.6-46.2
22 NY-32 52.4-46.1
23 NC-05 54.2-45.8
24 NC-11 53.4-44.6
25 OH-02 52.4-47.6 *
26 OH-03 53.8-44.4
27 OK-02 54.8-45.2
28 PA-07 50.3-49.4 *
29 PA-21 52.9-47.1
30 PA-25 46.5-42.3 *
31 RI-02 52.6-47.4
32 SD-01 50.05-49.95 *
33 TX-05 50.3-49.1 *
34 TX-11 51.6-48.4 *
35 TX-19 53.2-46.8
36 TX-24 54.1-45.9
37 UT-01 51.0-46.2 *
38 VA-08 50.5-47.1 *
39 VA-10 53.4-46.6
40 WA-02 51.4-48.6 *
41 WA-05 48.0-42.7
42 WA-07 53.3-46.7
43 WI-01 54.5-45.5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1978

Having over 290 seats (as the Democrats did after 1976) lets you survive a *big* loss (which 1978 was not) with control of the House. (Even the Democrats' 63-seat loss of 2010 or their 54-seat loss of 1994 would not have been enough to give the GOP control of the House in 1978.)
 
It is notable though that 1978 was the last time Democrats 'won' a midterm election with a Democratic President, though Obama and Clinton are a small sample size, but still Democrats haven't been able to have a Democratic President and Democratic Congress for more than 2 years since 1978.

Because the Democratic solid south at a Congressional level was fracturing in 1994, and by Obama's time was well and truly only a remnant. When you have a whole region of the country which is a lock for your party, it's kind of an advantage. 1978 was a completely different era to even 1994, the Democrats had a serious structural advantage in Congressional strength.
 
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No it's not and you need to read the thread, particularly the David T posts.
Thanks, good catch. :)

Yes, I'm seeing this thread can almost be read as a delicious DBWI. It's assuming it's the norm for the party which wins the presidency to lose control of Congress the next mid-term (which of course is not the case), and then it's asking us to imagine how 1978 might have been different.

Alright, in this double-blind universe, Carter has to have a much more successful presidency! That's just all there is to it. In spite of all his strengths and weaknesses, and in spite of late '70s stagflation and popular uprising in Iran (with us in America arguably on wrong side).
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
Thanks, good catch. :)

Yes, I'm seeing this thread can almost be read as a delicious DBWI. It's assuming it's the norm for the party which wins the presidency to lose control of Congress the next mid-term (which of course is not the case), and then it's asking us to imagine how 1978 might have been different.

Alright, in this double-blind universe, Carter has to have a much more successful presidency! That's just all there is to it. In spite of all his strengths and weaknesses, and in spite of late '70s stagflation and popular uprising in Iran (with us in America arguably on wrong side).
What are you on about? This is not a DBWI in no manner. It is a serious discussion. Thread derailment isn't cool.
 
It is not my intention to derail anything.

The original post does include a premise " . . Jimmy Carter held the House in 1978. This rarely happens in midterms, . . " which is just not the case. Although the two data points of 1994 and 2010 might be the beginning of a pattern, especially since Democrats tend to vote less often in mid-terms than do Republicans.

So, I'm asking what if we view the question and original set-up as a DBWI?
 
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