AHC: 1848 revolutions lead to a German republic

AHC: The 1848 revolutions lead to a German republic or a constitutional monarchy.

It needs to be in control of all or a large portion of Germany.
 
Last edited:

Perkeo

Banned
Do you mean constitutional monarchy or real republic? The latter is ASB in 1848, because it was too unpopular even among the revolutionaries themselves, and even if it wasn't there is no force to enforce such a change.

The best I dare to hope for is that the Prussian or Austrian monarch accepts the OTL constitution with some extra competences added to the Emperor, and and more and more power is slowly transfered to the democratic institutions - a process that did happen IOTL but was all but complete in 1914.
 
Do you mean constitutional monarchy or real republic? The latter is ASB in 1848, because it was too unpopular even among the revolutionaries themselves, and even if it wasn't there is no force to enforce such a change.

Is it ASB though? I agree that the possibility is highly unlikely, but I would say the amount of variation in revolutionary views, where some factions did in fact support a real republic while others were dead-set on a constitutional monarchy, was a big part of the problem. At the same time, even in my own TL where the Frankfurt parliament is co-opted by radicals and a republican 'experiment', if you will, is launched, they have a very hard time gaining a lot of traction. So I would say very unlikely, yes; ASB, perhaps not.
 
Do you mean constitutional monarchy or real republic? The latter is ASB in 1848, because it was too unpopular even among the revolutionaries themselves, and even if it wasn't there is no force to enforce such a change.

The best I dare to hope for is that the Prussian or Austrian monarch accepts the OTL constitution with some extra competences added to the Emperor, and and more and more power is slowly transfered to the democratic institutions - a process that did happen IOTL but was all but complete in 1914.

Sorry I should clarify. I mean something along the lines of a republic or a constitutional monarchy. Also it has to be in control of all or most of Germany.

I will edit it, in above.
 
Instead of surrendering to the demands of the Rioters, the Princes in the Rhinelands decided to fight. The rioters loot arsenals (that they already controlled) and are able to overthrow most of the West Germany City/States and the Prussian territory near Hannover.

Émigrés from France bolster the Republicans. A new republic takes hold in Colonge. Karl Marx emigrates to the new Republic and calls for a worker uprising. Wider worker risings sweep Germany and a Marxist Republic forms after fighting a war against Prussia. The new Republic would have borders similar to Modern Germany minus Bavaria and Potsdam. It would however control Eastern Belgium, and Luxembourg.
 

Perkeo

Banned
Is it ASB though? I agree that the possibility is highly unlikely, but I would say the amount of variation in revolutionary views, where some factions did in fact support a real republic while others were dead-set on a constitutional monarchy, was a big part of the problem. At the same time, even in my own TL where the Frankfurt parliament is co-opted by radicals and a republican 'experiment', if you will, is launched, they have a very hard time gaining a lot of traction. So I would say very unlikely, yes; ASB, perhaps not.

With "ASB" I didn't refer to the revolutionary views alone, but also to the problem of enforcement. I simply don't see that, once the aristocratic armies start to march, the result would differ much from OTL. Thus your suggestion gives us a failed republic, not a successful one.

Realistically, the revolutionaries cannot win without more support from forces that opposed the revolution IOTL, and that won't happen without the OTL - likely more - consessions to the old rulers.
 
Instead of surrendering to the demands of the Rioters, the Princes in the Rhinelands decided to fight. The rioters loot arsenals (that they already controlled) and are able to overthrow most of the West Germany City/States and the Prussian territory near Hannover.

Émigrés from France bolster the Republicans. A new republic takes hold in Colonge. Karl Marx emigrates to the new Republic and calls for a worker uprising. Wider worker risings sweep Germany and a Marxist Republic forms after fighting a war against Prussia. The new Republic would have borders similar to Modern Germany minus Bavaria and Potsdam. It would however control Eastern Belgium, and Luxembourg.


Your geography is strange. I really do not see what you mean. Which princes in the Rhinaland? In 1848, Prussia has no territory near Hanover the city. Near Hanover the kingdom is a lot - do you mean the whole provinces of Westphalia and Saxony?
1848 is awfully early for an workers' uprising.
Why on earth would this German Republic control parts of neutral Belgium without everyone ganging up on it? Are those emigré Geman who moved the France earlier and now have returned, or are they Frenchmen now moving into Germany?
And Potsdam? That is a maximally an governmental district, most of todays Brandenburg save the east along the Oder and the south (Lower Lusatia). Do you mean that?
 
You can´t go straight from the Revolution of 1848 to a german Republic. I agree that this would be ASB. Still its possible to get a united constitutional german monarchy in 1849. The prussian king has just to accept the crown and the constitution the Frankfurt Assembly offered him. If this united german state is created in 1849, there is a slight chance it could turn into a republic some years later. It could happen in this form:

1. With the Frankfurt Constitution accepted, there will be no need for the radical, republican left to try an uprising. Without this failed uprising the radical left wouldn´t be forced to emigre and could move on with their political work under the protection of the constitutional civil rights. Men like Franz Sigl, Carl Schurz and KARL MARX will stay in Germany.
2. My personal theory is such a united Germany will join TTL equivalent of the Crimea War, which will turn from a regional conflict in a great world war like conflict through this. Even if Germany belongs to the winner of such a conflict, the war could be radicalize the society.
3. The Monarchy will be less respected then 1871 IOTL. The first Kaiser Frederick Wilhelm IV. will still have his stroke, the second one, Wilhelm I., was 1848 shortly forced into exil by the revolution.
4. There will likely be something like the Prussian Constitutional Conflict IOTL. The Frankfurt Constitution made the army a responsibility of the states, a decision which could lead in a real war to a massive train-wreck, because the german army would be insist of a dozen or more state contingents. So it will be likely a conflict come up. tht the army should be centralized and therefore come under more control of the Reichstag or stay under controll of the Kings and Princes. This conflict could trigger a second revolution.

So its possible: 1848/49 First Revolution and united german monarchy. 1862? second revolution and german republic.
 
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