AHC: 1815 - Partition of Germany between Austria and Prussia with monarchs relocation - more compact states.

Partition of Germany between Prussia and Austria. Wettins in Principality of Cracow as a Russia client state, Russia collects Ruthenian lands, Austria take areas with bavarian and alemanic dialets spoken, Baden swift western-nord and take Palatinate, Wurtemberg takes northern Bavaria with east franconic dialect spoken, Wittelsbachs take Rheinland and Westfalen. Prussia lost western exclaves, but take Saxony and some polish lands instead.
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How it will affect unification of Germany? Or future war between the European powers?


EDIT: After your suggestions, I've modified the scenario to more plausible:

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This would be completely unacceptable to the rest of the great powers. Prussia and Austria dividing Germany between them will result in war with Great Britain, France, and Russia.
 
This would be completely unacceptable to the rest of the great powers. Prussia and Austria dividing Germany between them will result in war with Great Britain, France, and Russia.

Also, I'm not sure that it would be all that desirable for Austria.

At any rate, the Congress of Vienna was all about "putting things back the way they were before the French Revolution, as much as possible". This scenario simply isn't happening under those constraints.

A progressive partitioning of Germany between Prussia and Austria after that is another matter.
 
Will not accept that, Bavaria is their ancestral land and they already switch side, ASB

Considering how many times the Wittelsbachs "almost" lost/traded away Bavaria in the previous century (at Utrecht in exchange for Sicily; before the WotAS in exchange for either Tuscany or the Netherlands; and in exchange for the Netherlands sparking the War of the Bavarian Succession), I wouldn't call it ASB.
 
Considering how many times the Wittelsbachs "almost" lost/traded away Bavaria in the previous century (at Utrecht in exchange for Sicily; before the WotAS in exchange for either Tuscany or the Netherlands; and in exchange for the Netherlands sparking the War of the Bavarian Succession), I wouldn't call it ASB.
Different, after the end of HRE, now Bavaria matter, before it didn't matter that much as the Wittelbasch were 'Elector Palatine' and that was the most pretigious title, now that doesn't matter and they did consider bavaria their new core, so sadly is ASB now. Plus Prussia and Austria wanted to be 'business as usual'.
 
Also, I'm not sure that it would be all that desirable for Austria.

At any rate, the Congress of Vienna was all about "putting things back the way they were before the French Revolution, as much as possible". This scenario simply isn't happening under those constraints.

There is a quote from Sol'zhenitzin regreting, that Tzar Alexander I didn't anexed East Galicia. ITL Alexander not only unite all Ruthenian lands, but also avoids taking rebellious Catholic Poles.
France would be happy, that has not Prussia but Wittlesbach Rheinland near it borders.
Austrians had a pain in the neck governing another non-German land that was in the end of XVIII and begininning of XIX century Galicia.
For UK it's even safe, that the Hanover is not between Prussian lands.

Maybe I have chosen wrong words with 'partitioning Germany' (a little click bait maybe ;) ) but now UK has a plenty of buffer states.
Prussia will have problems with large WestSlavic (Poles, Silesians, Kashubians, Masurians) and it will need time to work out some policy to cope with them.
Russia will have free hands with Caucasus, Far East and Balkans, as it would not have any problems with Polish uprising (small amount of Poles in Lublin, Grodno, Wilno and Lemberg is managable).

With consensus of France, Prussia, Austria and Russia what UK would do? War with all of them? :)
 
France would be happy, that has not Prussia but Wittlesbach Rheinland near it borders.
France would not be happy that their ancestral enemy, Austria, has now effectively doubled their German territory while also now sharing a common border. Baden, Wurttemburg, and Bavaria would also not be particularly on board and would gladly accept French assistance if Austria attempts to go through with this.
 
Could it be that in this scenario Austria is forced to compensate by not becoming Italy's hegemon. In particular, could this be combined with a restoration of Venice/altough it seems unlikely in Republican form, or ceding Milan to Sardinia in order to create a strong buffer there?
 
@Vistulian its an interesting idea and one that, while difficult, might not be impossible to reach. However, you would need a POD of 1813. First, a little backstory; during the Napoléonic wars King Maximilian I Josef of Bavaria was one of Napoléon's closest, and earliest, German allies. The King allied with Napoléon in August 1805, shortly before the Austerlitz campaign that saw the French become masters of Germany, gaining a royal Crown and the Tyrol for his troubles. The King remained a loyal ally of France for most of the period, even marrying his daughter to the Emperor's stepson Eugéne in 1806. This changed on the eve of the Battle of Liepzig, when the King, influenced by his son Kronprinz Ludwig and Marshal von Wrede, signed the Treaty of Ried with the allies, switching sides in exchange for guaranteeing his crown, sovereignty and borders. Now compare this defection to another of Napoléon's German allies, King Friedrich August I of Saxony. The Saxon king attempted to defect to the allies, but they failed to support him in time, leading him back into the arms of Napoléon. In the aftermath Saxony was occupied by the Russians and the King held captive. This led to the Saxon-Polish crisis, the attempt by Prussia, with Russian support to annex the entirety of Saxony, and in exchange Berlin would cede its Polish territories to the Tsar.

So the key here is to have Bavaria fail to defect for whatever reason and get treated as an enemy nation, likely occupied by Austria. The Austrians had the hope of annexing Bavaria throughout the 18th century, so I can easily see it suggested to Emperor Franz I. Then, once Prussia starts demanding Saxony, Metternich (not sure what he would support here) can make the offer; we'll let you have Saxony in exchange for letting us have Bavaria (or at least most of it). Maybe they throw in part of Galicia for Russia too. Prussia and Russia agree, the Saxon and Bavarian Kings are compensated with new states on the left bank of the Rhine and everyone leaves happy (well as long as your Austrian, Prussian or Russian). However, you would have to drop any chance of annexing (either entirely or parts of) Württemberg; Friedrich I was George III's son-in-law, and doing anything to his throne would insult British prestige, potentially triggering British intervention via a coalition to protect him. Not a smart move.

Now, @Admiral Spaun , you say that this would trigger war with France, Britain and Austria, but I contest that. Like I pointed out above, if Russia is given the Polish territories the Tsar craved, then they give Prussia and Austria a free hand in Germany in exchange. As to Britain, harder to say. The British were all about a Balance of power, and both Prussia and Austria annexing middle powers would technically preserve that, as there's a plurality in that both states are strengthened and neither are really stronger than the other. Plus, in OTL Castlereagh (the British Foreign Secretary and chief negotiator at Vienna) was initially willing to let Prussia have Saxony, so if he was willing to sacrifice the Saxons, than whose to say he couldn't do the same to the Bavarians. Finally, France. The French are in NO position to do much of anything on their own, so at this point they're kinda nonentities, unless they can persaude the British to join them in opposition to the annexations, in which case we could see a war. But I think not.

Finally, @Nivek , definitely NOT ASB. While the Congress was "officially" about restoring Europe's ancien régime, in actuality it was more about creating a new order for Europe and rewarding Napoléon's conquerors. Or are you unaware of the Saxon-Polish crisis? After all, if the Congress wanted to restore everything to 1789, then Prussia would have never tried to annex Saxony, nor would Austria get Venice or Sardinia-Piedmont the restored Republic of Genoa. So if it was possible for Prussia to potentially annex Saxony, then Austria annexing Bavaria would be in the cards.
 
Could it be that in this scenario Austria is forced to compensate by not becoming Italy's hegemon. In particular, could this be combined with a restoration of Venice/altough it seems unlikely in Republican form, or ceding Milan to Sardinia in order to create a strong buffer there?
I forgot Italy, but this make sense. Austria would be seen as to powerful if it take also Lombardy-Venice. Let's say that this Kingdom exist, but other powers permit Austria only to introduce a pro-Austrian family on Venice throne.
 
if Russia is given the Polish territories the Tsar craved, then they give Prussia and Austria a free hand in Germany in exchange.
That may have been true for OTL Polish Saxon Crisis, however in this scenario Prussia keeps all of their pre Napoleonic War Polish territory and obtains Saxony without the tsar getting a thing. Austria also gets a Wettin puppet in their bit of Poland while Russia only gets part of East Galicia. The Tsar would have to be an utter fool for this plan to be acceptable.
unless they can persaude the British to join them in opposition to the annexations, in which case we could see a war.
Something tells me that Austria annexing Venetia, Lombardy, Bavaria, Wurttemburg, and Baden would be a bit of a cause for concern in London.
 
That may have been true for OTL Polish Saxon Crisis, however in this scenario Prussia keeps all of their pre Napoleonic War Polish territory and obtains Saxony without the tsar getting a thing. Austria also gets a Wettin puppet in their bit of Poland while Russia only gets part of East Galicia. The Tsar would have to be an utter fool for this plan to be acceptable.
Tzar gets all Ruthenian Lands to Wisłok River, Lublinian province incorporated directly into Russia and doesn't need to pretend that have to give some rights to Poles - he has free hands there.

Ok, so I've modified scenario for Poland:
now Prussia gets less - lands of second Prussian partition and Warsaw, Wettins' Cracovian Principality gets areas of Austrian partition till Wisłok and Wisła river and Prussian Neuschlessien, and Russia get all east from line Narew - Wisła- Wisłok, and Bukowina, without any given autonomy, and Poles living on the Russian side of the border are to weak to ignite any meaningful rebellion.
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I think the big long term winner here is Russia, without an Austrian Galicia Russia can much more easily manage the creation of the Ukrainian identity and maybe keep it for the long haul. And with more Poles in Prussia they dodge another slow bleed.
 
EDIT: After your suggestions, I've modified the scenario to more plausible
Definitely much more plausible. Without Congress Poland, Russia is a going to be much more stable. This would also have effects for the Belgian Revolution. Without the Polish Revolt, the Tsar would be able to send his troops to help the Dutch as intended.
 
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