AHC: 17th century independent Ireland

With a POD after 1630, have an independent Ireland arise (and survive until the end of the century and today, if you can) in the 17th century.
 
Well, there was a plan during the Civil War or shortly thereafter for the duke of Lorraine to invade Ireland (I'm not sure if it was to become king or not - but I think it was he wanted to be king, while the Irish were loyal to Charles I/II). It didn't go off so well, and the duke retired in a huff saying that the kingdom had been lost by those who had most desired it (the Irish)
 
With no disrespect for the very proper self determination of the Irish, the constant in all the period is the very genuine knowledge of Britain that France will use an independent Ireland as a springboard for an invasion of England from the West in any, or all, of the wars up to the middle of the of the 19th century. Which is the point at which real moves towards either home rule or full independence begin.

For England an independent Ireland means an end to an independent Britain. The only way this can happen is something which makes Britain and France close allies from the 17th century onwards. In this period Britain is closer to Germany (in it's diverse states). The best I can come up with is an earlier unification of Germany which threatens France and Britain becomes a close ally of France. Stretching it even thinner, the Commonwealth inspires an earlier revolution in France and they team up to protect themselves against their monarchist neighbours.

Alternatively France does successfully invade Ireland, launches a successful two prongedinvasion of Britain in Lancashire and Sussex and makes Ireland independent under a French ruling house.
 
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