AHC: 100 million Jews by the year 2000

With as late a POD as possible, and assuming an overall rate of human population growth similar to OTL, how could the Jews have reached a global population of 100 million by the turn of the millennium?

Bonus challenge: Exclude the possibility of conversion, and rely solely on multiplication of the existing population.
 
European Jews, partly because they werent tied to the land, and partly because they married young, tended to have more kids than their neighbors. Periodic progroms, formal or informal, and mass expulsions, which totally disrupted life, kept the numbers down.

If jews were somehow perceived to be necessary, or had strong protectors, or something, you could get the numbers up to about that level.

Getting that, howver would be the trick.

Or. Have a bunch of European Jews hear about Vinland, and when one of the great expulsions happens, they take ship for the New World, and populate the Americas.
 
Or. Have a bunch of European Jews hear about Vinland, and when one of the great expulsions happens, they take ship for the New World, and populate the Americas.

Holy crap, that'd make an interesting TL. 300-odd years of Jewish-only emigration to North America, while the rest of Europe takes it as some sort of folly, using bigotry against "the Jewish Island" to justify not heading there themselves.

Best part is, the emigration would be closer to a trickle during that time, so you'd see a more gradual westward migration, with a synthetic culture between the Jews and Natives.

By the time the Christians came across the Atlantic, North America would already be up to speed, and they would shatter the Conquistadors.
 
Well, define "Jew". If your take to "Judaism" is strictly genealogical, your OP if quite difficult to achieve (not impossible, I think).
Otherwise, just wank Khazaria. And there's plenty of other ways.
 

ingemann

Banned
European Jews, partly because they werent tied to the land, and partly because they married young, tended to have more kids than their neighbors. Periodic progroms, formal or informal, and mass expulsions, which totally disrupted life, kept the numbers down.

If jews were somehow perceived to be necessary, or had strong protectors, or something, you could get the numbers up to about that level.

Getting that, howver would be the trick.

Or. Have a bunch of European Jews hear about Vinland, and when one of the great expulsions happens, they take ship for the New World, and populate the Americas.

Seeing as the average Jew had never tried to farm (and it do demand skills), they had a natural population limit. As a general rule before 1500 the urban to rural population was 1:10 from 1500 to 1600 it increased to 1:5, but it was only in the more developed countries (not the countries in East Europe with large Jewish population). 1:5 stayed stable until 1800, where it exploded with the industrial revolution.

So let imagine how we use this. We need to look at Poland, Poland only reached 1:5 rather late, so we need to develop the cities. So the Polish king adopt Protestantism in 16th century, but to avoid Poland being filled with German burghers. We make up a new sect the Polish Catholic Church (a Polish version of Anglican Church). With the vast estates he get from nationalise the Church, he make the crown heritable, while the landowners are rewarded with more power over their serf (lowering their mobility/ergo no migration to the cities). This allow him to slowly develop Poland, slowly growing the cities. As German burghers lack access and Poles have little mobility the Jewish population grow with them. Poland at this point likely had a natural population development like Austria-Hungary, so around 20 million people by 1800, as the cities develop at the same time to 1:5 we see a Jewish population at 4 million at the same time. In the 19th century the cities explode in size, but to large extent the Jews can keep up, especially because the Jews population growth can follow in the start. So by 1850 the cities have increase to 3:10 most of those are Jews at the same time the Polish population have increased to 35 million, it give us 10,5 million Jews, at this point serfhood are removed and more Poles move to the cities, but bvecause of the strong landowners, the migration are slow and we hit 1900 with 2:5 in cities and a population at 50 million, but thanks to the Polish migration, the urban population have grown more Slavic, so we only have 15 million Jews. But at the same time million of Jews have migrated abroad. New Amsterdam:p are Jewish stronghold with 3 million Jews and 3 million in the rest of New Netherlands, Germany-Hungary also have a high Jewish population at 5% so around 5 millions.

All in all at this point there are 30 million Jews. With the high Jewish birth rates and no holocaust this easy reach 100 million by 2000 of those 35 million live in Poland (which have a population at 100 million), New Netherland is home to 20 million, Germany-Hungary 10, the rest of Europe 20. It leave 15 million spread out in the world.
 
Holy crap, that'd make an interesting TL. 300-odd years of Jewish-only emigration to North America, while the rest of Europe takes it as some sort of folly, using bigotry against "the Jewish Island" to justify not heading there themselves.

Best part is, the emigration would be closer to a trickle during that time, so you'd see a more gradual westward migration, with a synthetic culture between the Jews and Natives.

By the time the Christians came across the Atlantic, North America would already be up to speed, and they would shatter the Conquistadors.

Maybe some messianic leader becomes convinced that he's Moses and that North America is actually the promised land.
 

FDW

Banned
IMO, the single most plausible way would be for the Khazars to entrench their religion in the lower volga/northern caucus more throughly than OTL. (It's damn near impossible for them to the present because of the fact that they sit smack in the middle of the "Nomad Superhighway" so a stronger legacy is the best that can be managed) The other way to do would be to go all the back to Iron Age and have the Canaanites pull off the military innovations that the Assyrians managed OTL that allowed them to conquer the middle east. (However, you might not end up with a monotheistic state in that scenario)
 
-Sigismund II Augustus has a male child by a Jewish mother in his late 30s, the Sejm legitimizes him in desperation for saving the Jagiellon line and Poland/Lithuania becomes ruled by a "Jewish" family starting in 1572. The young man inherits the aptitude for statecraft shown by his father and grandfather, it is his exceptional abilities along with those of his son and grandson (also born of Jewish mothers but who eventually practice Catholicism, at least on paper) who are key in solidifying the government's longevity

-Poland institutes policies of exceptional religious tolerance, allowing peoples of all faiths to settle within her borders provided they follow local laws and swear allegiance to the King. Emigration from Spain and Central Europe gives Poland/Lithuania a major headstart and allows for the establishment of several universities. Sanitation programs are also enabled along with building of sewer systems which makes the country better able to endure plagues

-Poland/Lithuania has some of the mismanagement and infighting of OTL but not to nearly the same degree, and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth manages to survive the 17th century intact with some expansion at the cost of Russia, Ottomans, and the Holy Roman Empire. Her population is not wracked by wars and is supplemented with immigration (mostly Jewish but not entirely) from other areas of Europe, some of whom bring the potato with them which enables greater nutrition and more available foodstuffs.

-Commonwealth influence is able to put down rebellions in the Ukraine and bring Kiev into the orbit of Warsaw instead of Moscow. This will eventually permit the resources of the Ukraine to aid in expansion of the Commonwealth economy. As the 18th century dawns, the Commonwealth formalizes the tendencies of federation, limited monarchy, and legislation into a formal charter that becomes an influence for many governments thereafter, including the United States.

-Commonwealth industrialization results in some of the first organized labor movements in history and brings about socially progressive programs that decrease infant death and permit greater standards of living than most of Europe at the time, resulting in reliable population growth from an already burgeoning population of 22 million in 1700 to over 65 million by 1800

-Napoleonic wars and further industrialization permit Commonwealth expansion to the whole of the modern Ukraine, Byelorussia, Latvia, Lithuania, most of OTL Poland, Kaliningrad Oblast, and even some of the Baltic islands. Estonia is an area of contention while Prussia is effectively a Commonwealth satellite, especially following its neutering during the Napoleonic Wars. German (especially Prussian) infrastructure will be rebuilt with mostly Polish capital, and this causes some shift in the view of Germans about Commonwealth populations.

-By 1850 the Commonwealth government is extremely stable, and though there have been challenges with internal order and some external wars, the threat of Russia in the east with a rising Germany in the West keeps the populace even more united than their government alone would permit. With the decline of the Ottomans and the formation of a united Germany in 1848 under Austrian domination, Prussia seeks membership in the Commonwealth as a self-governing entity. This will eventually lead to a dynastic intermarriages with the Jagiellons and the Hohenzollerns, eventually causing a full merger of the two in the mid 1900s.

-By 1860 there is a population of over 30 million self-described Jews in the Commonwealth during their first official census, though in reality many more have a clandestine mixed heritage with larger amounts of intermarriage than OTL. Without the tragic events of the early and mid 20th century along with additional emigration of Russian Jews there is an even more firmly Jewish population in the different areas of the Commonwealth by 1900.
 

Meerkat92

Banned
Holy crap, that'd make an interesting TL. 300-odd years of Jewish-only emigration to North America, while the rest of Europe takes it as some sort of folly, using bigotry against "the Jewish Island" to justify not heading there themselves.

Best part is, the emigration would be closer to a trickle during that time, so you'd see a more gradual westward migration, with a synthetic culture between the Jews and Natives.

By the time the Christians came across the Atlantic, North America would already be up to speed, and they would shatter the Conquistadors.

Holy SHIT! I have a map to make!
 
Holy crap, that'd make an interesting TL. 300-odd years of Jewish-only emigration to North America, while the rest of Europe takes it as some sort of folly, using bigotry against "the Jewish Island" to justify not heading there themselves.

Best part is, the emigration would be closer to a trickle during that time, so you'd see a more gradual westward migration, with a synthetic culture between the Jews and Natives.

By the time the Christians came across the Atlantic, North America would already be up to speed, and they would shatter the Conquistadors.

Remember the theories that the Cherokees were the lost tribes of Israel.:D
 
There are quiet a few potential PODs to work with.

- The 10 Lost Tribes somehow return to the fold

- Either the inqusistion never happens or the descendants of Iberian Jews forcibly converted during the inquisition (that later spread to Latin America) return to the fold (apparently some believe that roughly 20-100 + million Hispanic people are thought to have Jewish roots)
- Early islam somehow excludes Jews from becoming muslims (as a way of escaping Dhimmitude)
 
Last edited:
I actually wouldn't be surprised if there were 100 million people worldwide of Jewish ancestry (at least partially) in OTL. When you think about how large the Jewish population was 2,000 years ago, given normal population projections it should be at about that level now, if not more still. It's just that 20 centuries of discrimination probably forced many to go underground and eventually they lost their Jewish identity.
 
I actually wouldn't be surprised if there were 100 million people worldwide of Jewish ancestry (at least partially) in OTL. When you think about how large the Jewish population was 2,000 years ago, given normal population projections it should be at about that level now, if not more still. It's just that 20 centuries of discrimination probably forced many to go underground and eventually they lost their Jewish identity.
this. filler
 
Top