AH Vignette: The Surprise Choice

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland perused over the papers in his red box as he sat at the kitchen table in the small flat tucked away on the higher floors of 10 Downing Street, the flat that had recently become his home. The hour was still early, not even 7am at that point, but he knew that such early starts were vital, in order to absorb the information and briefings for the many meetings and policy issues that he would be addressing that day. Of course, he had only been Prime Minister for three days so far and about to enter his fourth on the job, so in that case it could perhaps be forgiven if he did not attend to his boxes with radical vigour. After all, nobody would expect such a new Prime Minister to be on top of everything at this stage. Despite this, the Prime Minister did not agree with such a viewpoint, having taken the advice of his immediate predecessor and those before him that keeping on top of the briefings, even right from the start, was vital.

Indeed, he was not a stranger to red boxes, having a seven year Cabinet career behind him before his party had lost a general election. His first Cabinet post, just four years after entering the Commons, had been a relatively junior role, the kind that either spelt doom for a Cabinet career or was the stepping stone to a higher post. During his four years there, an unusually long period considering the then PM's penchant for regular reshuffles to solve political problems, he had worked diligently and earned a reputation as a thoughtful, competent minister who was a safe pair of hands. Naturally, such monikers rarely counted for anything in politics, as the ministers who did their jobs well often lost out in the bloodsport of politics to less able but more politically savvy rivals. So, it was a surprise when he declared his intentions to stand for the Deputy Leadership of the party after the long time but scandal ridden incumbent had decided to stand down in tandem with the leadership change that would be taking place at the top of the party. As the leadership election was to be a coronation, the Deputy Leadership field went the opposite way, being crowded with a plethora of Cabinet ministers keen to guarantee a place in the new government and indeed the direction of the party.

Of an eventual crowd of six contenders, it had often remained unclear in the contest as to who held the lead. This was not surprising given the calibre of the contenders who each held significant areas of support in the diverse range of areas, whether it be among the parliamentary party, the unions and affiliates or the constituency branches. Despite his reputation as a competent but rather grey minister, he'd found himself leading fairly frequently in polls that had been taking, but he'd been confident he wouldn't win, given such a crowded field. However, he'd been proven wrong. It had been a close run thing, but he'd emerged victorious, in a case that the commentators and analysts had put down to being the candidate people disliked the least, someone who didn't cause strong controversies or distasteful feelings and thus would benefit from second preferences. Indeed, despite their political differences, he remembered his father's eyes welling up with tears as he watched the result come in and it symbolised a proud moment in their family history. His victory had been touted as a surprise choice, but not an unwelcome one, especially given the behind the scenes reputations of some of his rivals. And so, when the newly crowned leader had formally assumed the office of Prime Minister, he had decided to bestow the role of Party Chairman and Leader of the House of Commons upon his new deputy. Some had questioned whether it was a snub for him to be offered anything less than a Great Office of State, but he knew that the internal parliamentary party politics of the time meant some sacrifices had to be made to avoid strife.

As it turned out, internal strife became a way of life over the length of the new government. The initial few months had been a great success, but soon gave way to fraught economic crisis, policy diversions & u-turns, backbench rebellion and then inevitable whispers about leadership challenges. With such an insiders perspective during the whole period, he'd seen first hand at how such factionalism was destroying their chances of winning a general election. Ultimately, he was proven right, as in the end, they had lost and were consigned to five years of opposition. After the inevitable leadership resignation, done hastily after moving out of Downing Street, he as Deputy Leader now found himself as the Acting Leader. Due to the odd position of being in opposition for the first time in well over a decade and with the recriminations and blood letting of the leadership battle on the horizon, he'd acted quickly to ensure stability in the parliamentary party and a smooth timetable for a leadership election. When asked if he would contest, he declined, arguing that his services were more needed in the role of overseeing stability during the interim period.

His hopes of stability to the leadership election did hold, but the result of that election erased all of that with the shock result and thus the renewing of factionalism for another five years. He stayed on as Deputy Leader and now with a more important brief on the frontbench. His years as Leader of the House in government had been pleasant but he couldn't deny it was better to serve in a more senior post. Still, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer hadn't been in his estimations, yet even then he knew he was there purely to keep a rival of the new Leader out of the job. He wasn't a natural in economic briefs, and sometimes it showed, but as ever, his safe pair of hands reputation came to the fore and he'd performed reasonably well. Alas, his term was to be brief as pressures on his boss meant that he was reshuffled out of the post and into the Shadow Foreign Secretary post to make way for the rival who'd applied backbench pressure to ensure the change. In some ways he was glad, as it now meant he had the chance to pursue foreign policy issues that were close to his heart and away from the bloodsport of economic policymaking in the Commons. Frontbench politicking aside, the party had remained ever divided over the five year period and had never really settled on a core theme or set of beliefs, leaving many confused as to who and what they actually stood for. He'd been worried about this and said so to his boss who'd listened but not acknowledged by actually changing anything. It seemed as if they were banking on the government's unpopularity to secure a quick return to government for them, and for the most part, the polls and analysts seemed to agree.

Until Election Night itself of course, when they'd lost both votes and seats, a shock result compared to what many were expecting. Somewhat dumbfounded, another leadership resignation came, indicating another period in opposition. Once again, he became Acting Leader and once again looked to establish a stable interim period for a leadership change. What was different this time though was that he hadn't stayed neutral. It had taken much lobbying and persuading from MPs, ranking from former Cabinet ministers to rookie backbenchers, to put himself forward as a leadership candidate. They argued that his skills were needed for stability, to provide direction and a sense of purpose, to begin the process of reform to address the shock result. He'd accepted, seeing the party in a state of crisis, with their stronghold north of the border decimated and failing to breakthrough in the marginals, he couldn't see any of the other candidates proposed being able to reverse or change the party's fortunes back for the better. It had been easy for him to get onto the ballot and the leadership race became a five candidate field. In events reminiscent of eight years prior when he'd been elected Deputy Leader, the candidates held strong support in diverse areas and nobody could predict a winner to any degree of clarity. More importantly, again in events reminiscent of that election, he had won once more as the compromise candidate. The surprise choice who was able to unite the factions behind him as their second preference, the man people disliked the least and whom respected for his competency the most. In hindsight, the result hadn't been that surprising given his rivals. One hard-left backbencher from a bygone era, one shadow minister who might as well have been Blair's lovechild, one popular Shadow Cabinet member who couldn't seem to decide what he stood for and another who didn't portray an image of leadership or vigour at all. So, in the end, he had emerged as the surprise but relatively welcomed choice.

He had inherited one hell of a mess in the party and even from the start of his leadership there were already whispers and rumours of plots against him. It looked to be an impossible task and to be honest, even as they now resided back in government, there was still much more work to be done. They had gotten back into government arguably on a combination of events and luck, benefiting not from a renewed sense of purpose or vision but from the ill fortunes of their rivals. The Conservative government had torn itself apart over Europe following the In result of the 2017 referendum, reverting back to type and causing backbench strife reminiscent of Major whilst their Nationalist rivals north of the border had seen a significant drop in support following an oil crisis resulting in a financial crisis that had resulted in his party being able to capture back some of the losses that they had endured three years prior. With the Conservatives having fallen to a vote of no confidence, an early general election came and much like the last one, another hung parliament was projected. This time, the forecasts were right. He'd gained 60 seats, enough to put his party as the largest and enough to be able to govern as a minority government on confidence and supply deals with a somewhat recovered Liberal Democrats in addition to the SDLP, Greens and nationalist parties. It wasn't a great result, but it was still a victory.

Despite that, the new Prime Minister knew his position was precarious given the lack of a majority and lack of a viable coalition partner. It was why he was already spending so much time pouring over his briefs and red boxes to set a policy direction as early as possible, to ensure that people could see Labour benefiting the country as a whole and therefore increasing his seats at a subsequent general election. He knew that it would take a lot of work, deal making and luck to provide a coherent and workable legislation programme that could survive the precarity of a minority government, but as through his whole career, he was confident of delivering a surprise result.

Of course, he wasn't lost on the irony of the situation either. His father had served in the last Labour government with a testing minority situation, relying on deals and compromises to survive, and for that, Prime Minister Hilary James Wedgwood Benn, could only wish that his father were still alive to offer his counsel in such a new but at the same time similar situation.
 
Nice tease and reveal. I thought I had it early; it's Alan Johnson. It's definitely Alan Johnson. Yep, Alan Johnson. Hang on, this is too obvious... Who else could it be...? Superb red herrings leading me the wrong way until the final couple of paragraphs.

Inspired by today's PMQs by any chance? Its funny, I had it in my head that Hilary Benn was another generic grey cabinet minister from the mid-noughties, permanently frozen in my mind as the archtype middle aged former SPAD. Then I see him today and he not only looks and sounds a lot more like his father than I realised, but he actually did seem very statesmanlike and prime ministerial.
 
Nice tease and reveal. I thought I had it early; it's Alan Johnson. It's definitely Alan Johnson. Yep, Alan Johnson. Hang on, this is too obvious... Who else could it be...? Superb red herrings leading me the wrong way until the final couple of paragraphs.

Inspired by today's PMQs by any chance? Its funny, I had it in my head that Hilary Benn was another generic grey cabinet minister from the mid-noughties, permanently frozen in my mind as the archtype middle aged former SPAD. Then I see him today and he not only looks and sounds a lot more like his father than I realised, but he actually did seem very statesmanlike and prime ministerial.

Thank you! I was definitely going for that effect, doing enough vagueness but hints that it's Johnson and hopefully that extended quite the way in.

Yep, inspired by today's PMQs and the recent vignettes as it got me thinking as to Benn as a leader and PM, so hopefully I did it justice
 
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