AH Vignette: Saladin at Jerusalem

Italy or possibly Austria making a play for Libya (although I'm not sure Italy would be ready in the 1860s or 70s).

And yeah, the UK won't be a happy camper - I'd guess that it would at least try to strengthen its position in Egypt, and I wonder if it might not try to take Iraq and/or go for Libya or Tunisia itself as a check against French expansion.

Italy wouldn't be ready in 1875-1878 to make a millitary play for Libya- but OTL 1878 is when they made a diplomatic future claim for it which was largely recognized by France and Austria. If total Ottoman collapse ensues in 1875, rather than Bismark's managed decline in 1878, France might nab Tripoli as well as Tunis, and the U.K would back Egypt in Cyrnecia- and maybe shore it up against further French expansion (loan restructuring?)
 
Italy wouldn't be ready in 1875-1878 to make a millitary play for Libya- but OTL 1878 is when they made a diplomatic future claim for it which was largely recognized by France and Austria. If total Ottoman collapse ensues in 1875, rather than Bismark's managed decline in 1878, France might nab Tripoli as well as Tunis, and the U.K would back Egypt in Cyrnecia- and maybe shore it up against further French expansion (loan restructuring?)

If the UK does write down Egyptian debt, I wonder if this might forestall the occupation and result in Egypt being more independent - it would still be vassalized, but it might be vassalized in the way Nepal or Afghanistan were IOTL rather than having a substantially British-run government. Also, if the UK wants a strong Egypt as a counterweight to French influence, it might underwrite Egyptian expansion to the south as well as to the west, possibly resulting in a permanent Egyptian seizure of Eritrea and a more favorable outcome to the Egyptian-Ethiopian war. If something like this happens, the proxy fight over the Hejaz could get nasty.
 
If the UK does write down Egyptian debt, I wonder if this might forestall the occupation and result in Egypt being more independent - it would still be vassalized, but it might be vassalized in the way Nepal or Afghanistan were IOTL rather than having a substantially British-run government. Also, if the UK wants a strong Egypt as a counterweight to French influence, it might underwrite Egyptian expansion to the south as well as to the west, possibly resulting in a permanent Egyptian seizure of Eritrea and a more favorable outcome to the Egyptian-Ethiopian war. If something like this happens, the proxy fight over the Hejaz could get nasty.
Once the Suez canal exists though, wouldn't the British be too terrified of anyone else getting control of it to let the country straddling it have any meaningful freedom? Nepal or Afghanistan are back of beyond and of interest mainly as frontiers on another power system (Russia, China). It is smart to leave them nominally free but appreciative of British little gifts; they are self-sealing border zones as it were. Egypt is at the heart of the world; the last thing Britain wants is to have it go its own way.
 
Once the Suez canal exists though, wouldn't the British be too terrified of anyone else getting control of it to let the country straddling it have any meaningful freedom? Nepal or Afghanistan are back of beyond and of interest mainly as frontiers on another power system (Russia, China). It is smart to leave them nominally free but appreciative of British little gifts; they are self-sealing border zones as it were. Egypt is at the heart of the world; the last thing Britain wants is to have it go its own way.

Fair point, and I certainly agree that Britain would vassalize Egypt in some form - all the more so with a French proxy to one side and a French colony to the other. Even IOTL, though, Britain didn't resort to outright occupation until 1882 when a nationalist uprising threatened the Mehmet Ali dynasty. ITTL, if Egypt is expanding to the west and south and if its debt burden is restructured, the nationalists might be somewhat mollified and/or their energies might be taken up elsewhere. Maybe the late 19th century would see the Egyptian dynasty remain on a relatively short leash but without British troops on the streets and hence without atrocities like Dinshaway, which might give Egypt a chance for a less contentious modernization and an easier assimilation of the *Wafd into the political system. (There would still be something like the Wafd - Zaghloul was born before the POD.)
 
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