AH Vignette - From the Atlantic to the Urals

What happened to Mao and his Communists? I can't see Chaing Kai Shek winning the Civil War without American help. The problem is America is also supporting Communist Russia against the Nazis. So what happened?
A. Mao jumps on the American bandwagon. He takes American supplies and fights the Japanese. A successful Dixie/Marshall Mission in this timeline. The CCP spearheads aiding their Russian comrades in the Urals while Chaing handles the domestic chores.
B. The CCP refuses to play ball. The US cuts them off from supplies. The Russians don't share lend lease with them. CCP members either jump ship to the KMT or the hardcore go to the Urals and die out fighting Nazis.
C. Again the CCP refuse to cooperate. US enters the Chinese Civil War making it this ATL's Korean War. Mao's forces are broken and absorbed into Nationlist China.

I haven't worked out the details, but my vague idea is the combination of the USSR collapsing and the Americans putting considerably more force into the Pacific War somehow does the trick. Maybe American troops arrive in Manchuria and China proper after the Japanese surrender to oversee their withdrawal (no Soviet offensives out of the Russian Far East ITTL, of course)? I dunno.
 
I haven't worked out the details, but my vague idea is the combination of the USSR collapsing and the Americans putting considerably more force into the Pacific War somehow does the trick. Maybe American troops arrive in Manchuria and China proper after the Japanese surrender to oversee their withdrawal (no Soviet offensives out of the Russian Far East ITTL, of course)? I dunno.
OTL the Marines did pull occupation duty in China after the war. It would be believable that more troops are sent there and stay longer.
In this timeline did Chennault and Stilwell go to China? If so then there could be a bigger US presence during the war. The US actually runs the war against the Japanese and tells Chaing to keep his mouth shut. Better yet have the US replace Chaing and have him and Madame Chaing retire to a villa in Taiwan.
 
What happened to Mao and his Communists? I can't see Chaing Kai Shek winning the Civil War without American help. The problem is America is also supporting Communist Russia against the Nazis. So what happened?
The difficulty is that the situation in the late war doesn't really resemble the OTL one except in broad strokes:
  1. The United States is focusing all of its efforts on Japan. This means Japan will likely lose sooner than in our timeline, if only because there's no assault shipping going to the Mediterranean or, of course, Overlord, hence more amphibious invasions in the Pacific. This means they may not get the chance to launch Ichi-Go, meaning large parts of Chiang's army will be more intact than IOTL. Mao also has less time to build up his strength in the liberated Base Areas in the north, so he's weaker than IOTL. Additionally, Chiang is likely getting more American aid than IOTL, which may be further increased by...
  2. The United Kingdom is focusing all of its efforts on Japan. Or at least a larger part of its efforts than IOTL, given no need to prepare for a cross-channel invasion or invasions in the Mediterranean. Doubtlessly they are still putting a lot of effort into securing the Home Islands and Egypt, so far as possible, but there may be more forces available for service in Burma, in particular. This could mean reopening the Burma Road, again increasing the supply available to Chiang.
  3. The Soviet Union is completely preoccupied. They're not going to be invading Manchuria, obviously; they will still hold divisions in the Far East, but the idea of engaging in offensive operations is ludicrous when they're dealing with the side effects of being conquered by the Nazis. This is very significant, because Stalin basically handed over large portions of Manchuria to Mao IOTL, including the weapons left over from the Japanese. ITTL, the Nationalists will be getting that, or a lot of it.
At the very least, Mao is going to face a significantly steeper hill than he did IOTL, and Chiang is likely to be able to hold out against him better. Butterflies could even have Mao being dead by that time, though the other senior members of the CPC were very competent, so it wouldn't really be a big issue.

If so then there could be a bigger US presence during the war. The US actually runs the war against the Japanese and tells Chaing to keep his mouth shut. Better yet have the US replace Chaing and have him and Madame Chaing retire to a villa in Taiwan.
That's about as likely as the US being able to replace Stalin, for somewhat similar reasons--China is too geographically isolated and Chiang too internally powerful and legitimate to just dispose of. Better would be to send someone more diplomatic than Stilwell for a diplomatic job--his only real qualification was that he could speak Chinese, otherwise he was a terrible choice.
 

Deleted member 94708

The difficulty is that the situation in the late war doesn't really resemble the OTL one except in broad strokes:
  1. The United States is focusing all of its efforts on Japan. This means Japan will likely lose sooner than in our timeline, if only because there's no assault shipping going to the Mediterranean or, of course, Overlord, hence more amphibious invasions in the Pacific. This means they may not get the chance to launch Ichi-Go, meaning large parts of Chiang's army will be more intact than IOTL. Mao also has less time to build up his strength in the liberated Base Areas in the north, so he's weaker than IOTL. Additionally, Chiang is likely getting more American aid than IOTL, which may be further increased by...
  2. The United Kingdom is focusing all of its efforts on Japan. Or at least a larger part of its efforts than IOTL, given no need to prepare for a cross-channel invasion or invasions in the Mediterranean. Doubtlessly they are still putting a lot of effort into securing the Home Islands and Egypt, so far as possible, but there may be more forces available for service in Burma, in particular. This could mean reopening the Burma Road, again increasing the supply available to Chiang.
  3. The Soviet Union is completely preoccupied. They're not going to be invading Manchuria, obviously; they will still hold divisions in the Far East, but the idea of engaging in offensive operations is ludicrous when they're dealing with the side effects of being conquered by the Nazis. This is very significant, because Stalin basically handed over large portions of Manchuria to Mao IOTL, including the weapons left over from the Japanese. ITTL, the Nationalists will be getting that, or a lot of it.
At the very least, Mao is going to face a significantly steeper hill than he did IOTL, and Chiang is likely to be able to hold out against him better. Butterflies could even have Mao being dead by that time, though the other senior members of the CPC were very competent, so it wouldn't really be a big issue.


That's about as likely as the US being able to replace Stalin, for somewhat similar reasons--China is too geographically isolated and Chiang too internally powerful and legitimate to just dispose of. Better would be to send someone more diplomatic than Stilwell for a diplomatic job--his only real qualification was that he could speak Chinese, otherwise he was a terrible choice.

This. So very much this.

More tomorrow.
 
Better would be to send someone more diplomatic than Stilwell for a diplomatic job--his only real qualification was that he could speak Chinese, otherwise he was a terrible choice.

So who would you recommend for this in this alternate timeline? I think Eisenhower would be the top choice considering what he did in the real world China should be easy.
 
How's Turkey faring?

Good question. I see them as lucky enough to fall into the western sphere of influence instead of becoming a puppet of the Reich. Possibly a large Islamist element that really hates the 'pagan Germans' to their north, probably a large population of Caucasian refugees and a smaller one of Slavs and Jews.
 
Good question. I see them as lucky enough to fall into the western sphere of influence instead of becoming a puppet of the Reich. Possibly a large Islamist element that really hates the 'pagan Germans' to their north, probably a large population of Caucasian refugees and a smaller one of Slavs and Jews.
Or what about them becoming the "big neutral", replacing the Swiss (after they got partitioned) as the world's main place to do shady banking and neutral meeting spot?
 
Or what about them becoming the "big neutral", replacing the Swiss (after they got partitioned) as the world's main place to do shady banking and neutral meeting spot?

I kind of like that. Istanbul as a nexus of international banking and espionage. I'm sure at least 1 out of every 5 James Bond movies has a scene there.
 
What is the status of Ireland? Is there an American military presence there as well or are the Irish trying to remain neutral? What happened to the IRA? Is Northern Ireland still part of the U.K.?
 
What is the status of Ireland? Is there an American military presence there as well or are the Irish trying to remain neutral? What happened to the IRA? Is Northern Ireland still part of the U.K.?

Not sure on the first two, but Northern Island is still part of the UK.
 

thorr97

Banned
Varyar,

Excellent piece here! Nicely developed ATL and a well expressed travelog of the "new" world. You capture the resignedly dismal world quite well. This, much like Western travelers through the Soviet Union of the 1960s - and through the North Korea of today - must've felt.

Some general thoughts here about the rest of the world...

The Reich could not occupy the same role in this ATL as the USSR did in OTL. National Socialism does not "travel well" compared to Communism. While there'd be plenty of espionage and subversion efforts undertaken by the Reich it would not have the same success due to an otherwise appealing ideological component. Communist agents could - and did - appeal to the sense of social injustice among other peoples in other lands and thus gain supporters in their effort to destabilize those governments. There would, inevitably, be some degree of that but it would not be to the same degree as with Communism.

Thus the ideological fervor which drove many anti-Western agents in OTL simply wouldn't be there in this ATL. That means the espionage and subversion efforts by the Reich would be nowhere near as successful. Anti-colonial movements are thus liable to remain smaller, less effective, and less unified than in OTL. True, the Reich's agents may try to play upon a local populace's desire to be free of colonial rule but they'd have nothing to offer in its replacement other than rule by the Nazis - and that would be a distinctly ugly proposition even if the local populace chose to ignore the "Final Solution" rumors. The brutal nature of the Nazi regime in its treatment of Russians and other conquered peoples would be too apparent to be ignored.

One of the key aspects of the Cold War in OTL was the Soviet sponsorship of international terrorism directed against the West. This too would be substantially less in a world where the Nazis won over the Soviets. The support for the IRA, for instance, would be smaller and anything tinged with coming from Berlin would be far more repulsive than aid which had come from Moscow in OTL. And with the Reich literally just across the Channel from the British Isles, that threat would be too real and visceral.

I think it a clever touch to describe the Germans as being more advanced in medical treatments than the West. Having no compunctions about using human beings as test subjects to develop those treatments certainly makes for faster progress in developing them. I like however, that you've depicted the West as being more advanced in space flight. Given the decay in Nazi education that was already apparent in the late 1930s, that is a very reasonable proposition and a nice touch as a reversal of the usual expectation in such scenarios.

As far as the stories go, I can't imagine this journalist would be much welcomed back in the Reich after he publishes his travelog from this journey. His views of it would simply be too negative for Germany's sense of pride and good propaganda...
 
Varyar,

Excellent piece here! Nicely developed ATL and a well expressed travelog of the "new" world. You capture the resignedly dismal world quite well. This, much like Western travelers through the Soviet Union of the 1960s - and through the North Korea of today - must've felt.

Thank you very kindly! I'm glad you liked it.

I agree with your thoughts - Nazism definitely lacks the universal appeal of communism. OTOH, money talks, so at least some groups are willing to take German arms shipments, etc. But overall, you're correct, Nazi-backed terrorism and insurgency is not an enormous global problem.

And yeah, German medicine being a bit more advanced than Western was a depressing but (I think) logical conclusion. It's probably not quite as simple as that, as there are certainly some areas the Germans aren't really concerned about.

Do check out the sequels and let me know what you think!

ADDED: Oh. You started with the middle story! :D

All Quiet on the Eastern Front comes first: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/all-quiet-on-the-eastern-front.408168/

and then An Ordinary Germanic concludes the trilogy: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ah-fiction-an-ordinary-germanic.413261/
 
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