AH: The german invasion in England, July 21st 1940

[DB605!!]

Hi,

just read an alternative history novel, Seelöwe, the landing in England on the 21st of July 1940. Lots of senseful information on the planning and surprise landing in July which ist primarily an Luftwaffe op.
There is an Ebook at: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01N7LIVT9

and also a paperback version: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1520230427.
Reminds me a bit of Tom Clancys Red Storm Rising, comparable style.
I think it falls may be a bit short, regarding the logistical situation of the Luftwaffe in June and July in France
Regretfully only in german language, though I hope an english version will follow.


This is not the classic sealion approach for a landing on a broad front with an insufficient navy and tranport capacity.
Authors idea is a para landing supported by Ju 52 transported infantry on a small perimeter near Folkestone. The Luftwaffes job is to reach air superiority over this small area. That’s a tactical task the Luftwaffe did in the early stages of BoB and nearly succeded until dumbass Göring shifted to strategical bombardement of London etc.
Then the RN is lured into the northsea by a fake invasion fleet and decimated like in Crete 41.

Thinkable, especially if you remember that the RN ships AA capacity in July 40 was worse than AA in 41.

The bait for the RN from Scapa flow is an invasion fleet of about 50 larger freighters coming through the Kattegatt unto the Jutland Bank. By an intelligence deception operation this is leaked to the British who must respond.

Then, under the cover of Me 109 with no range problems over the northsea operating out of Denmark, the attack starts with horizontal bombers to disperse the ships, followed by torpedo bombers supported by Me 110 for Flak supression, followed by horizontal bombers and some U-boats in the deep waters off Norway on the return trip off the RN, to Scapa.

After that it becomes easier to support and enlarge the first perimeter.

The story gives a lot of insights into the thinking process of the german staff. Hope 2nd part comes soon.

This is the first part of a series of justice first part treats all the necessary steps until the day of the invasion, which is set on the 21st of July 1940.

Would it really have been possible for the Wehrmacht and especially the Luftwaffe to do this stunt?
What do you think?

 

[Christopher Marcus]

I think that since you are a new member you will probably be forgiven for having asked this question here

Operation Unmentionable Sea Mammal is perhaps the single-most 'debunked' AH of all time - meaning: It Just Wasn't Possible. Look for the full glossary of various attempts in Post 1900-forum.

I see nothing here to change that state of affairs, so no - these books are probably entertaining but hardly realistic by any stretch of the word. It should get points I suppose by trying to do away with the RN through a Jutland-style ambush. Pity the author didn't think about why the RN just didn't wait until the 'invasion fleet' was in range of British land-based bombers and carriers operating closer to the UK coast and then did the same to them as the Germans' cunning plan was to do to the RN near Denmark.

 

[Not Henry G.]

I think the most plausible Sea Mammal I've read is a story in the Third Reich anthology, in which basically Germany manages to land some troops but are quickly stopped but the shock (on top of all the pessimism prior to that like a total defeat in Dunkirk, etc) causes the UK to collapse politically.

 

[DB605!!]

I think that since you are a new member you will probably be forgiven for having asked this question here

Operation Unmentionable Sea Mammal is perhaps the single-most 'debunked' AH of all time - meaning: It Just Wasn't Possible. Look for the full glossary of various attempts in Post 1900-forum.

I see nothing here to change that state of affairs, so no - these books are probably entertaining but hardly realistic by any stretch of the word. It should get points I suppose by trying to do away with the RN through a Jutland-style ambush. Pity the author didn't think about why the RN just didn't wait until the 'invasion fleet' was in range of British land-based bombers and carriers operating closer to the UK coast and then did the same to them as the Germans' cunning plan was to do to the RN near Denmark.

It is all about geometry. A german invasion fleet has a wide range of possible targets, could go to the channel but also way up north. The idea is always to bring your enemy to react to your move. If the RN sits off the english coast the reaction time to a possible advance say to the channel ist shortened, so a senseful commander attacks asap. Think about a situation when german ships would have been able to land an the RN arrives too late, impossible for any commander to bear, and end of career.

By the way, the discussion in this book is not about the real Seelöwe plan to land in september, which is/was utterly impossible, but about a mainly airborne landing two months earlier in an situation with an diarranged british army that just lost most of its tanks, artillery, lorries etc a few weeks befor in dunkirk.

 

[Christopher Marcus]

It is all about geometry. A german invasion fleet has a wide range of possible targets, could go to the channel but also way up north. The idea is always to bring your enemy to react to your move. If the RN sits off the english coast the reaction time to a possible advance say to the channel ist shortened, so a senseful commander attacks asap. Think about a situation when german ships would have been able to land an the RN arrives too late, impossible for any commander to bear, and end of career.

By the way, the discussion in this book is not about the real Seelöwe plan to land in september, which is/was utterly impossible, but about a mainly airborne landing two months earlier in an situation with an diarranged british army that just lost most of its tanks, artillery, lorries etc a few weeks befor in dunkirk.

My German is a bit rusty but this is what it says on the blurp for the book on Amazon - the conditions the author has changed to make SL possible:

1. Planning started as contingency alongside Fall Gelb
2. Earlier extra fuel tanks for Me109s
3. Education of more bombers to torpedo-bombers as well
4. Start fighting RAF infrastructure in July
5. Tanks, artillery, planes and ships from the Vichy
6. No London Blitz, just go for RAF and RN
7. Clear political and military will to do it
8. Primarily invasion by airborne landing

Also:
Göring dies from an overdose of cocaine
Churchill murdered by Irish terrorists
Milch - a "born organiser and pragmatic" takes over Luftwaffe and irons out all Göring's mistakes

That is no less than 11 unrelated PODs, if that term even has meaning in this case. Why doesn't this author half of the British home guard stay in bed with measles when the German paratroopers arrive?!

If PODs ad nauseam are allowed - to change all kinds of things both before and during SL, then yes - of course it was possible to do SL.

I suppose another POD is an event that suddenly made British intelligence and RN officers incredibly stupid, all just because ...

I mean, they know the state of the Kriegsmarine was dire after the invasion of Norway. The KM isn't a credible threat escorting any kind of invasion fleet across the North Sea and even if it was, it is still, tactically, a far sounder option to hit them outside of German landbased bomber-range (from Denmark or whereever). Or at least send in a pack of subs to torpedo the troop transports first and any capital ships, while the RN then moves in to finish off the rest should they insist on continuing into British home waters.

But I surrender! Obviously this author has thought of everything. If I came up with more objections, I'm sure he would have thought about changing the conditions to make those objections moot, as well!

Look, I'm not trying to knock you on the head or anything - and welcome to the board, by the way. But is it really so difficult to see that this scenario is wishful thinking, or belonging in the Alien Space Bat-section, rather than a realistic AH?

 

[B-29_Bomber]

What do you think?

I think I love you.


Lets have dinner. And then get married and have kids by the end of the night!

 

[DB605!!]

My German is a bit rusty but this is what it says on the blurp for the book on Amazon - the conditions the author has changed to make SL possible:

1. Planning started as contingency alongside Fall Gelb
2. Earlier extra fuel tanks for Me109s
3. Education of more bombers to torpedo-bombers as well
4. Start fighting RAF infrastructure in July
5. Tanks, artillery, planes and ships from the Vichy
6. No London Blitz, just go for RAF and RN
7. Clear political and military will to do it
8. Primarily invasion by airborne landing

Also:
Göring dies from an overdose of cocaine
Churchill murdered by Irish terrorists
Milch - a "born organiser and pragmatic" takes over Luftwaffe and irons out all Göring's mistakes

That is no less than 11 unrelated PODs, if that term even has meaning in this case. Why doesn't this author half of the British home guard stay in bed with measles when the German paratroopers arrive?!

If PODs ad nauseam are allowed - to change all kinds of things both before and during SL, then yes - of course it was possible to do SL.

I suppose another POD is an event that suddenly made British intelligence and RN officers incredibly stupid, all just because ...

I mean, they know the state of the Kriegsmarine was dire after the invasion of Norway. The KM isn't a credible threat escorting any kind of invasion fleet across the North Sea and even if it was, it is still, tactically, a far sounder option to hit them outside of German landbased bomber-range (from Denmark or whereever). Or at least send in a pack of subs to torpedo the troop transports first and any capital ships, while the RN then moves in to finish off the rest should they insist on continuing into British home waters.

But I surrender! Obviously this author has thought of everything. If I came up with more objections, I'm sure he would have thought about changing the conditions to make those objections moot, as well!

Look, I'm not trying to knock you on the head or anything - and welcome to the board, by the way. But is it really so difficult to see that this scenario is wishful thinking, or belonging in the Alien Space Bat-section, rather than a realistic AH?

Thanx for the nice knockin´welcome!
Is there a border regarding PODs in AH novels?
As far as I know, the main fault of the Luftwaffe and its leadership in the BoB, was using the Luftwaffe as an strategic weapon, which it definitely wasn´t.
Regarding the named PODs, one and three are mere timing issues, two: the Luftwaffe had aux tanks for the He 51 which was the standard fighter way before the Me 109. Four and six means using the Luftwaffe as a tactical weapon, which it was. In Germany there is a saying; you can do anything you want, if you really want it. In this PODs are no zombies, no ETs ore time shifts/travels or stuff like that.
In the novel british intelligence is not dumb (at least ENIGMA wasn´t cracked!) and there is full acceptance that the KM was nearly not existant.
In my view an AH novel is an experiment in, maybe wishful, thinking, but as long as the parameters are sane, it´s interesting. Are there any insane parameters in your view?

 

[wcv215]

How does this force get supplied? The capacity doesn't exist.

This remains true even if the RN collectively decided that detonating their own magazines is jolly good sport.

 

[DB605!!]

How does this force get supplied? The capacity doesn't exist.

This remains true even if the RN collectively decided that detonating their own magazines is jolly good sport.

Perhaps you should remember, that in real history on July 29 1940 your vaunted RN had to give up Dover as destroyer station and cleared the channel from destroyers, because of losses sustained in the Kanalkampf in which only a small aprt of the Luftwaffe was involved!

 

[Christopher Marcus]

Thanx for the nice knockin´welcome!
Is there a border regarding PODs in AH novels?
As far as I know, the main fault of the Luftwaffe and its leadership in the BoB, was using the Luftwaffe as an strategic weapon, which it definitely wasn´t.
Regarding the named PODs, one and three are mere timing issues, two: the Luftwaffe had aux tanks for the He 51 which was the standard fighter way before the Me 109. Four and six means using the Luftwaffe as a tactical weapon, which it was. In Germany there is a saying; you can do anything you want, if you really want it. In this PODs are no zombies, no ETs ore time shifts/travels or stuff like that.
In the novel british intelligence is not dumb (at least ENIGMA wasn´t cracked!) and there is full acceptance that the KM was nearly not existant.
In my view an AH novel is an experiment in, maybe wishful, thinking, but as long as the parameters are sane, it´s interesting. Are there any insane parameters in your view?

Well, I'm not the God of AH's, by in my perception generally an AH-scenario is just that: A simulation game. You change a variable, maybe more and see where it goes based on argument here in the forum, and digital sim if you have a computer. I write fiction myself and roleplay in my sparetime, so I can appreciate that you do a story where you just change what you like until there is a realistic causality-chain or at least relation between the different changes. And as long as each change does not include something totally unrealistic or magical.

It's kind of like those Hollywood-movies where you see one or two scenes which are clearly there to 'advance the plot', but you accept it because overall the movie holds together and is entertaining. I think the novel in question - which I haven't read, mind you - could be such a movie. But an AH-scenario no. So I guess you posted it in the right section after all, the AH-fiction section

But you asked a question which is probably more inviting of answers not relating to its literary merit but its realism. Obviously I can't decide who takes up what kind of discussions in the different forums, and I myself jumped right in and began to discuss the scenario-aspects as I saw them, so no harm done. But that's how I see it - this book is clearly in the realm of entertaining fiction. As a scenario it falls apart, because it's like a game where you keep changing the rules until you get the result you desire. An AH-scenario, again purely my view for now, is a scenario in which you change some ground conditions - preferably only one - The Point of Divergence. Then you take it from there.

Sometimes you will see discussions in here where people try to build a case or argument for a certain situation to arrive in the future, such as a succesful SL. Then they ask: "What do we need to change - and how far back?" They list a set of parameters for the sake of intellectual exercise but do not necessarily say this is realistic in any sense of the word.

You can look up threads that grapple with this question, but basically they always run into the same problems: As long as England and Germany are locked in a naval race, pre- and post WW1, and England's survival is dependent on the sea, you will always see England sacrificing most of its resources to gain naval superiority, even if you away with the Washington Naval Treaty, Germany's loss and indemnity after WWI etc.

So then you begin to discuss parameters which might off-set these constraints such as an economic recession or social unrest in England, a new alliance system in Europe, new people at the top, new technological developments and you may end up with something like 4 or 5 parameters which are not really realistic happening all at once within a short timeframe but need to be in place for a realistic SL come 1940-ish.

Unfortunately if you change things too far back that tends to butterfly away the events that led to the war in the first place

And just for the record, even if you implement all 11 PODs above, the Royal Navy would still not fall for the trap you have outlined with the phoney invasion. Take a good long hard look at the strength and capabilities of the RN compared to the KM in 1940 and the amount of shipping available to the Germans and you will see why it wasn't going to happen - German dominance of the sea as well as the air. And without both any invasion of England is ... fiction.

 

[wcv215]

Perhaps you should remember, that in real history on July 29 1940 your vaunted RN had to give up Dover as destroyer station and cleared the channel from destroyers, because of losses sustained in the Kanalkampf in which only a small aprt of the Luftwaffe was involved!

This is relevant to what I said how exactly? I'm talking about supply problems since the RN has already been magically wiped from the sea.

 

[DB605!!]

This is relevant to what I said how exactly? I'm talking about supply problems since the RN has already been magically wiped from the sea.

Step by step.
First an airborne landing with limited troop quantity, because only a limited quantity of troops can be supported by air. Get at least one airfield and one harbour.
Second, focussing (Schwerpunktbildung in german) on the channel area and reaching dailight air superiority, thus denying RN warships an entry in the channel.
Third, sending small fast support ships with tanks and ammo etc under very heavy aircover on dailight across the channel.
Repeat until RN is unable to enter the channel and RAF is depleted, hopefully the Luftwaffe then still exists. Then and only then, expanding the perimeter. British army was then still gutted by dunkirk and was very low on tanks, arty etc. Therefore an attacker who goes immediately in defensive mode would not be easily evicted by the Army. The role of artillery on the german side is overtaken by stukas and bombers. That is exactly the role the Luftwaffe was optimally structured for.

One of the main lessons learned in WW 2 was, that warships are unable to exist under enemy air superiority. To reach this air superiority in an focal thus limited area and therefore denying RN power is the first step in this SL scenario.

And don´t forget this Sealion scenario only has the same name as the planned September invasion, but an entirely different strategy.

 

[wcv215]

First an airborne landing with limited troop quantity, because only a limited quantity of troops can be supported by air. Get at least one airfield and one harbour.

Won't work.

Why? Because of port capacity. The ports in the selected landing areas CAN'T handle the level of supplies needed to keep an invasion force supplied.

Per Fleming, a German infantry division requires at LEAST 215 tons of supplies PER DAY. When not fighting. When in heavy fighting, such as trying to hold a foothold, they require 1,100 tons per day.

What's the issue here? Well, the Folkestone port, the largest in the area, could handle 600 tons per day. So that one Division is getting less than 1/2 of the supplies it needs even IF the port is taken intact.

In WWII taking ports intact was not easy. So even the above numbers are too rosy. If the port is successfully sabotaged you're looking at 150 tons per day.

Also, the fast support craft? They don't exist. The German transports were converted river barges.

 

[DB605!!]

Won't work.

Why? Because of port capacity. The ports in the selected landing areas CAN'T handle the level of supplies needed to keep an invasion force supplied.

Per Fleming, a German infantry division requires at LEAST 215 tons of supplies PER DAY. When not fighting. When in heavy fighting, such as trying to hold a foothold, they require 1,100 tons per day.

What's the issue here? Well, the Folkestone port, the largest in the area, could handle 600 tons per day. So that one Division is getting less than 1/2 of the supplies it needs even IF the port is taken intact.

In WWII taking ports intact was not easy. So even the above numbers are too rosy. If the port is successfully sabotaged you're looking at 150 tons per day.

Also, the fast support craft? They don't exist. The German transports were converted river barges.

Good point.
But the amount of supplies is may be a bit overstated, because as the troops in the first phase had not much of vehicle transports but those they acquired in England, so don´t need much diesel or heavy artillery ammo. Just ammo for MG, mortars and food.
And, if there is air superiority above the channel in daylight, Ju 52 can make several tours a day (say 5 trips as it is in the middle of summer and nearly max daylight) with low fuel and max cargo, say 4 tons cargo a trip. So using say 30 Jus could deliver 600 tons a day.
And the germans had some larger freighters with speeds of 13 to 16 knots, carrying capacity of several thousand tons each.
As said, it depends on the ability to create air superiority. Perhaps good to remember that the RAF was on the brink of loosing that battle in real life but was saved by the imbecile decision to go strategic by bombing London.
Oh, and remember its just fiction as C. Marcus says!

 

[wcv215]

Good point.
But the amount of supplies is may be a bit overstated, because as the troops in the first phase had not much of vehicle transports but those they acquired in England, so don´t need much diesel or heavy artillery ammo. Just ammo for MG, mortars and food.

Then they are just dead when the British bring heavy weapons up. Machine guns and mortars aren't going to stop the (Canadian) tanks.

Also remember, that was ONE division. That's it. You can't conquer Britain with one division. OTL the Germans planned to use tenish. That means those supply needs skyrocket. Even assuming the absolute minimum that means 2,100 tons per day. Port capacity intact of 600. Let's throw in your extremely generous air transport numbers. So total supplies: 1,200 tons. Just over 1/2 of actual needs.

British planners thought that force would need at least 3,300 tons per day. This is not a workable plan, and no amount of number massaging is going to change that.

And, if there is air superiority above the channel in daylight, Ju 52 can make several tours a day (say 5 trips as it is in the middle of summer and nearly max daylight) with low fuel and max cargo, say 4 tons cargo a trip. So using say 30 Jus could deliver 600 tons a day.
And the germans had some larger freighters with speeds of 13 to 16 knots, carrying capacity of several thousand tons each.

And it would take days to unload even one of those freighters eve if the port is intact, which it wouldn't be.

But even setting that aside, that's some mighty optimistic math. The Germans had HORRIBLE records on supplying cut off forces. I see no reason to think that this time will be different.

As said, it depends on the ability to create air superiority. Perhaps good to remember that the RAF was on the brink of loosing that battle in real life but was saved by the imbecile decision to go strategic by bombing London.

The weakness of the RAF relative to the Germans is overstated. The RAF was never in serious danger of losing the air war. Even at the worst point they were outbuilding the Germans in everything from tanks to artillery to planes. Only exception was small arms.

Oh, and remember its just fiction as C. Marcus says!

So? Just because something's fiction doesn't make it worth less thought.

 

[DB605!!]

Then they are just dead when the British bring heavy weapons up. Machine guns and mortars aren't going to stop the (Canadian) tanks.

Also remember, that was ONE division. That's it. You can't conquer Britain with one division. OTL the Germans planned to use tenish. That means those supply needs skyrocket. Even assuming the absolute minimum that means 2,100 tons per day. Port capacity intact of 600. Let's throw in your extremely generous air transport numbers. So total supplies: 1,200 tons. Just over 1/2 of actual needs.

British planners thought that force would need at least 3,300 tons per day. This is not a workable plan, and no amount of number massaging is going to change that.



And it would take days to unload even one of those freighters eve if the port is intact, which it wouldn't be.

But even setting that aside, that's some mighty optimistic math. The Germans had HORRIBLE records on supplying cut off forces. I see no reason to think that this time will be different.



The weakness of the RAF relative to the Germans is overstated. The RAF was never in serious danger of losing the air war. Even at the worst point they were outbuilding the Germans in everything from tanks to artillery to planes. Only exception was small arms.



So? Just because something's fiction doesn't make it worth less thought.

You are right, one cannot conquer england with one two or three divisions. The function of the first phase of the landing is not to conquer but to give a bait that cannot be ignored by RN and RAF with the aim of destroying them in an area of operation selected by germany. Only if this aim is reached by air superiority is a further deployment of troops that are able to conquer possible and supportable.
The horrible records on supplying of cut off forces is as I guess ment to be Stalingrad an tunisia, both situations were allieds had air superiority and over quit large distances and in the case of Stalingrad in horrendous weather. But there is at least one example, the Illmensee cutoff on the eastern front were it worked!
The original planning of landing 300 thousand troops was utterly impossible because of the logistics involved, I would never pretend that to be otherwise.