AH: The Congo Crisis goes differently

Grim toss up

As your basic lefty, I think PL MAY have been an improvement over MSS, but it depends on how beholden he is to the Soviets for backing his regime. Could he pull a Felix Houphet-Boigny and sell the diamonds, cobalt and other goodies at a fair price? YMMV.
If he stayed in power for any length of time, he could be just as much of a kleptocratic jackass as MSS only socialist-flavored (a la Mengistu) instead of thuggish.

I don't think the West esp Belgium, France or the US would be happy letting that stand. Even if MSS doesn't succeed in deposing PL, it could easily devolve into the nightmare we saw in Angola. Militias wage raid after raid back and forth, whatever was semi-functional before gets blown up or falls apart due to lack of upkeep, and hundreds of thousands die in your slow-motion nightmare.

Should PL or others manage to get something resembling responsible government, IMO, ROTC can hope for is either Tanzania-level success, no major ethnic strife, better literacy, no major issues with starvation then after about a decade, Ivory Coast level economic development. However, you've got a ton of issues between assumping power, having a good plan, the people, capital, and consensus to make it happen.
 
Grim toss-up

Should PL or others manage to get something resembling responsible government, IMO, ROTC can hope for is either Tanzania-level success, no major ethnic strife, better literacy, no major issues with starvation then after about a decade, Ivory Coast level economic development. However, you've got a ton of issues between assuming power, having a good plan, the people, capital, and consensus to make it happen and being willing to accept it needs tweaking as it goes along.


As your basic lefty, I think PL MAY have been an improvement over MSS, but it depends on how beholden he is to the Soviets for backing his regime. Could he pull a Felix Houphet-Boigny and sell the diamonds, cobalt and other goodies at a fair price and cut enough folks into the pie so it lifts up everyone's living standards, not just his cronies'?? YMMV.
If he stayed in power for any length of time, he could be just as much of a kleptocratic jackass as MSS only socialist-flavored (a la Mengistu) instead of thuggish.

I don't think the West esp Belgium, France or the US would be happy letting that stand. Even if MSS doesn't succeed in deposing PL, it could easily devolve into the nightmare we saw in Angola. Militias wage raid after raid back and forth, whatever was semi-functional before gets blown up or falls apart due to lack of upkeep, and hundreds of thousands die in your slow-motion nightmare.

Should PL or others manage to get something resembling responsible government, IMO, ROTC can hope for is either Tanzania-level success, no major ethnic strife, better literacy, no major issues with starvation then after about a generation, possibly Ivory Coast economic success.
The big problem was- the African independence leaders had a common issue- they were socialist lawyers, not economists or engineers. They wanted democracy and modernity for Africans now, without creating the civil society or economy that could make modern economies or polities work. They usually were pretty hostile to the white and Asian technocrats and businessmen that kept things running in colonial times and to a man, seemed to have serious issues allowing any kind of meaningful dissent, hoping a great Leap Forward would create socialist nirvana.

Zaire/ROTC started off extremely poor, illiterate, and poorly supported even by African colonial standards b/c the Belgians had zero interest in developing the human capital, which left a tremendous burden on the Congolese people and their leadership upon independence. As to being a superpower, you'd be lucky if it were a semi-functional nation with 50% literacy and a per cap income of $500 by 1980 with the best development scheme ASB's or really clever entrepreneurs could make happen.

Maybe by now, they'd have a literacy rate of 98%, average education of eleven years and a thriving middle class and per cap income in the $1,200-1,500 range. Superpower? They'd have enough people and economic muscle to be a big noise in the AU and give Egypt a little pause but would need another generation of really impressive growth to eclipse South Africa economically or militarily.
 
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