AH Scenario: Cuban Missile Bloody Nose

Yes, hence my initial doubt that SS4s were operational. When I looked at this properly about 5 years ago for my Masters I'm certain the outcome was that no SS4s or SS5s were in Cuba, just the FROGs and (unknown at the time) tac nukes. I still believe that to be the case, but can't find a good reference to hang on to.

Did you even read what I said? I'm saying that was completely wrong.

Hell, if there were no SS-4s or -5s in Cuba, then what pray tell did that U-2 photograph on October 14th?
 
You wanted to know exactly what was photographed on 14 October and I showed you; a bunch of construction and support equipment but no actual missiles. I'm quite certain no SS4s or SS5s were deployed, I just can't find a reliable source. But if you have one I'll be happy to read it, I don't know everything there is to know.
 
Check Dino Brugioni's book Eyeball to Eyeball (he was a Photo Interpeter at the National Photographic Interpetation Center for many years, and was a senior PI in 1962): he states in Chapter 6 (pp.189-217) that SS-4s were photographed on the 14 Oct 62 mission. In all, 42 SS-4s were deployed to Cuba by the Soviets. No SS-5s made it: they were en route aboard the freighter Poltava-which was one of the ships that turned back. The warheads and some support equipment for the SS-5 did arrive, though. But they never left the freighter that they were being transported in. Two SS-5 bases were under construction at Guanajay and Remidios. The SS-4s were at San Antonio de Los Banos and Sagua la Grande.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Which is not implausible when they start losing a conventional conflict - do you follow orders and die, or use the nuke and save yourself? Yes, soldiers sometimes follow orders and die, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Soviets are really good at following orders until death. And it's not like Soviet soldiers are retarded or something; they know what using nukes to save their own skins would mean.

Besides, if by some miracle they survive, they'll be praying for death once the GRU or KGB get their hands on them.
 

Dorozhand

Banned
Why would we be panicking if we've just taken out the immediate threat to the U.S. homeland?

If the immediate threat to the destruction of the USA was eliminated, the Americans would feel free to use the Jupiter missiles if neccesary. If the USSR takes West Berlin (or worse, blows through West Germany, provoking a certain NATO counterattack) then the USA will see no reason not to nuke the USSR, who, if let loose much longer, will become unstoppable (unless of course, the USSR responds to a US bombing of the cuban nukes with an equally fast bombing of the Turkish/Italian nukes. That would be very interesting).
 
What interests me is what kind of an impact the Soviet command and control systems would (or wouldn't) have had. Based on what happened with KAL 007 and the Matthias Rust SNAFU I've always wondered if they had the ability to react quickly in 1962.
 
The predelegation order for the Luna (FROG) rockets, the FKR cruise missiles, and the gravity bombs for the Il-28s was rescinded on 22 Oct, and reaffirmed on the 27th. In both instances, the Soviet command in Cuba was instructed to confirm that the order had been received and carried out. Which they did. The Soviets in Cuba were actually prepared to destroy the warheads (sealing them in in an old mine) when the crisis did end.
 
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