AH Question WWII

[Thomas27]

Hello everybody,

I need your advice.

I'm doing preliminary work for a timeline (to became a book) where the Pacific War is avoided.

I was wondering how and when USA will enter the war against Axis in Europe.

Thank your for helping me.

(PS: This TL will may be a collaborative but I don't know when I''ll start because i've other stuff to finish)

 

[Ravenflight]

Hello everybody,

I need your advice.

I'm doing preliminary work for a timeline (to became a book) where the Pacific War is avoided.

I was wondering how and when USA will enter the war against Axis in Europe.

Thank your for helping me.

(PS: This TL will may be a collaborative but I don't know when I''ll start because i've other stuff to finish)

So, to clarrify, the war in the Pacific up until December 7th, 1941 is pretty much the same, but somehow the Japanese don't attack Pearl, and the rest is subsequently avoided?

This is rather important (IMHO) because the way Japan acts right up to that point affects everything else.

I.e.:

• If you have a much more peaceful Japan (perhaps no Mukden Incident? and therefore no Manchurian invasion???) then you have a different America.
• If you have a similar history up until (but not including) Pearl, then you'll have a more similar America.
• If you have something in between... well...

 

[Thomas27]

I'll give more info to clarify the situation. Remember it's only preliminary work.

-The POD is the death of William Seward and the purchase of Alaska by Japan.

-1900 Japan discover Gold in Alaska

-The Russo-Japanese War is pretty the same. The only difference is the annexion of Sakhaline by Japan.

-The Showa financial Crisis and Great depression are a bit less harder for Japan than OTL.

-1931 Creation of the puppet state called Manchurain Republic with Zgang Zuolin as 1st President.

-Some tension between Japan and USA becasue a Japanese Alaska which challenge the "Monroe Doctrine".

-Japanese Discover Oil in Daqing.

-1936: Bigger 2-2-6 incident. Emperor survive an assassination attempt which is orchestrated by Prince Chichibu. Chichibu while never be seen again. Nobody knows what the Emperor did to him. A lot of trouble during the whole 1936 year.

-The 2nd Sino-japanese war is starts as same way as OTL.

-Because of Nazi policy on the Jew "problem", Japan start the Jewish settlement of Asia and Alaska.


How the Pacific War is avoided:
1941 USA leads the negotiations to end the war in China.
Conditions:
-German and Soviet support must stop immediately.
-China favored nation for trade with Japan.
-Manchurian republic recognized by USA.
-Korean exiled government comeback to Korea for independence talks.
-USA and Japan ask France, Britain and Netherlands to launch decolonization process at the end of war in Europe.
-US economic and technic help to develop Manchuria, Japan and future independent Korea.


Have you enough informations?

So in this conditions how and when USA can enter the war against Germany.

 

[Anaxagoras]

The POD is the death of William Seward and the purchase of Alaska by Japan.

A POD this early will introduce a host of butterflies into the TL which will certainly cause Europe and the rest of the world to be fundamentally different than OTL. There would be no Second World War in anything like the same fashion that we are familiar with.

 

[Thomas27]

A POD this early will introduce a host of butterflies into the TL which will certainly cause Europe and the rest of the world to be fundamentally different than OTL. There would be no Second World War in anything like the same fashion that we are familiar with.

Yea, I know.
But I've decide to limite the buttefly effect to avoid the TL to go "fantasy" or ASB.
Bu you can share your idea, I'm all hear and always interested in people ideas.

 

[Dain]

Well, since history has already changed that much (this is basically an entirely different AU), there are dozens of ways the US could be drawn into the war. You can pick what you'd like...

 

[Anaxagoras]

Well, since history has already changed that much (this is basically an entirely different AU), there are dozens of ways the US could be drawn into the war. You can pick what you'd like...

And what is "the war" in a TL with a POD that takes place in or before 1868? There would not be anything remotely like the Second World War with which we are familiar in this TL.

 

[Dain]

And what is "the war" in a TL with a POD that takes place in or before 1868? There would not be anything remotely like the Second World War with which we are familiar in this TL.

That's why I called it an AU - Alternate Universe. A vastly changed background that still is assumed to have produced a similar setting - somehow. Which features an 'Axis in Europe'.

 

[Thomas27]

That's why I called it an AU - Alternate Universe. A vastly changed background that still is assumed to have produced a similar setting - somehow. Which features an 'Axis in Europe'.

Yea it's almost exactly that.
The divergence show its effect slowly.

-As told before the Russo-japanese war is quite the same, just Sakhaline is annexed by Japan.
-The Russian civil war and WWI are quite the same.

The divergence became more visible during WWII.
And especially after with a different decolinsation, a different "red tide"...

I just wondering how USA will enter the war against 3rd Reich.
Did FDR is able to convince public opinion to enter the war or Hitler will declare war against America? When?

For the moment I still don't know how I'll handle it.

 

[Kingpoleon]

I think that the more likely scenario is Steward is replaced the year before Alaska is bought. This could be due to a big argument with the President. Then, after Seward hears of Japan purchasing Alaska, he could have a confrontation with the President. He could get re-appointed to office if he manages to convince the Preaident he could have got America Alaska. Then he would still be able to do other things from OTL, hopefully keeping the butterflies down. I personally don't see why even Russian foreign policy in Europe would be different than OTL because Japan owns Alaska. Could somebody explain it to me?

 

[Thomas27]

I personally don't see why even Russian foreign policy in Europe would be different than OTL because Japan owns Alaska. Could somebody explain it to me?

I think exactly the same thing.

Russia wanted to sell its Alaskan territory, fearing that it might be seized if war broke out with Britain ; and to make money.
So no matter who buy Alaska, Russia will keep the smae politics in Europe. The only différence could be in Asia, especially Japan.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

I just wondering how USA will enter the war against 3rd Reich.

Two possibilities leap out at me:

First, a big enough incident between (a) American warship(s) and (a) German U-Boat in the neutrality patrol prompts a US Declaration of War in 1942. Something along the lines of the Reuben James but much bigger in scale... like a US Heavy Cruiser getting sunk and/or multiple destroyers being drawn into a running battle with German subs.

Second possibility is that Hitler in Summer 1942, thinking that victory over the USSR is imminent, gets fed up with US lend-lease shipments to his enemies and declares war himself.

 

[Zheng He]

Have a US capital ship sunk by a U-Boat. One of the battleships, maybe even USS Ranger.

Or, after the "shoot on sight" order is given to the US Atlantic Fleet, have a US surface task force engage and sink a German surface raider. One or two US ships get beat up as well.

At one point, TF-1 sortied from Iceland because they heard that Tirpitz was out and about (turned out to not be true) but you still had a case where three American battleships were out hunting for a German battleship.

 

[Thomas27]

Thank to all people who give their adivce.

Im' pretty interested by option from Zheng He and ObssesedNuker.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

...

Second possibility is that Hitler in Summer 1942, thinking that victory over the USSR is imminent, gets fed up with US lend-lease shipments to his enemies and declares war himself.

I see this one as a bit more likely. Hitler had ruminated on the subject of a DoW on the US more than once from latter 1940 through 1941. Some historians describe this as 'flirting with a Dow', or considering a DoW. What is certain Hitler included the idea in a few of his staff/diplomatic discussions and monologues, these seem to coincide events like increases in LL to the UK and USSR, or rumors about high level military talks between Petains government & US ambassador. The US occupation of Iceland annoyed Hitler, as did rumors about the US navy occupying the Portuguese Azores. It is not at all unreasonable to think something similar, or several events closely spaced in date could trigger a DoW.

 

[Zheng He]

Thank to all people who give their adivce.

Im' pretty interested by option from Zheng He and ObssesedNuker.

On 20 June 1941 U-203 stalked the USS TEXAS and three destroyers in the Denmark Strait for several hours. When the skipper reported the contact he received a direct order forbidding him from attacking even though the task force was inside Germany's declared blockade zone. What if he had attacked before making his contact report?

In early November 1941, British intelligence reported that SCHEER or TIRPITZ was going to sortie from Norway. Admiral King positioned Task Force One - 2 BB, 2 CA, 3 DD in the Denmark Strait. SCHEER was going to sortie but she did not due to engine trouble. That sortie happens and Task Force One just might eat SCHEER for lunch. If WICHITA and TUSCALOOSA can slow her down, then IDAHO and MISSISSIPI can put her under.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

OOOooo got some handy sources for that? I'm already plotting to trick some naval miniatures players into gaming that one

 

[b0ned0me]

First, a big enough incident between (a) American warship(s) and (a) German U-Boat in the neutrality patrol prompts a US Declaration of War in 1942. Something along the lines of the Reuben James but much bigger in scale... like a US Heavy Cruiser getting sunk and/or multiple destroyers being drawn into a running battle with German subs.

Or a re-run of the Lusitania incident, with ship full of nuns/babies/schoolteachers/Democrat politicians/Disney cartoonists or whatever taking a torpedo. Maybe a US troopship from/to iceland?

Second possibility is that Hitler in Summer 1942, thinking that victory over the USSR is imminent, gets fed up with US lend-lease shipments to his enemies and declares war himself.

Butterfly away the neutrality acts of 37 and 39, and as soon as rearmament starts you would have masses of US war materials being sold on credit to the allied powers and delivered in US ships, possibly with USN escort during much of the crossing. That both makes attacks on US vessels much more likely (with US DoW) and also makes a Hitler DoW more likely.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

...
Butterfly away the neutrality acts of 37 and 39, and as soon as rearmament starts you would have masses of US war materials being sold on credit to the allied powers ....

Actually both Britain & France could pay cash then. France particularly had substantial gold reserves. I March of 1940 France sent two cruisers loaded with bullion to Toronto Canada, to serve as collateral for the large orders of war materials.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Late 1941 there was a seismic shift in German-US trade relations, have to remember to research it to be of help!

Best Regards
Grey Wolf