Sorry if this topic is stupid (I have zero knowledge of Russian history).
My question is: Could the Russian Revolution (or series of revolutions) be prevented w/o ASB? And when would the PoD have to be for each of the following?
1) Could the Revolution of 1905 be prevented? For example, Nicholas II allows representative government reform upon outside pressures.
2) Could the February Revolution of 1917 be prevented? For example, Russia doesn't join WWI.
3) Could the October Revolution of 1917 be prevented? For example, the Socialist Revolutionaries and Mensheviks steer the Provisional Government to leave the war effort.
AND FINALLY 4) Could the Bolsheviks winning the Civil War be prevented? For example, the Whites gain enough international support to combat the Reds.
Again, I am EXTREMELY unknowledgeable about Russian history, so go easy on me ;)
 
1. You would need more liberal and reform mind Nicholas II and Russia should win war against Japan before you can avoid 1905 Revolution. So probably not.
2. Very difficult. Only way might be that there not be WW1 or at least it is later so Russia can reform its army. So it is but you need avoid WW1. I don't see Russia staying outside of the war.
3. Probably only way is kill Lenin before that. So perhaps.
4. Problem of Whites was that they weren't very cooperative and them hadn't unified post-war plan. Their only goal was beat Bolsheviks.
 
Loosing the ruso-Japanese war hurt pride and prestige, the st Petersburg masecar lso drive a serious nail in the coffin of the dynasty.

If the Duma was given real power, and not dissolved you could have prevented some issues. Labor issues were another sticking point.
Like today those with the money just get richer, while Many of those with in the world work under asinine conditions with out much redress.
Russia was ripe for socialism, just they were used to authoritarianism as well. ( not a great combo ). If the king isn't listening to the people, he is a lousy King.

You would have to change a few things, less Alexandria influence for one. Give Nicky some backbone, during the war have him not assume supreme command in the figurative sense but defer to council more.

The romoanovs were seen as the apex of the issue between the burgious aristocracy and the common Russian. Have them care more for the people they rule and they will get better results.

Russia was going to join the war one way or the other.

Karansky and the provisional government could have held on, but you need Lenin and company to stay out. They needed a way out of the war to consolidate the home front and begin the process of building a new government.

The October Revolution was a direct result of not seeing the war end after the February revolution. And it's not that the Russians were doing that bad either, it's just that it's hard to fight a war with such social discontent on the home front.

The white could have of course if everyone declared war on Russia. But the west was sick of war, the Spanish flu, and the whites were disorganized under different banners and not fighting for a common goal together in some places. Fix that, and the whites could win.

Better yet, have the west support Lenin, stabilize the situation, and help guide him so that the west isn't seen as the enemy and maybe you can get Lenin to not be so extreme. ( not saying it's possible, but an idea I have tossed around in my brain a few times)
 
1. You would need more liberal and reform mind Nicholas II and Russia should win war against Japan before you can avoid 1905 Revolution. So probably not.
2. Very difficult. Only way might be that there not be WW1 or at least it is later so Russia can reform its army. So it is but you need avoid WW1. I don't see Russia staying outside of the war.
3. Probably only way is kill Lenin before that. So perhaps.
4. Problem of Whites was that they weren't very cooperative and them hadn't unified post-war plan. Their only goal was beat Bolsheviks.

1. Yeah, I knew for that to happen would need ASB :p
2. Interesting. WI the Allies were able to win the war before 1917... OR WW1 was avoided (which IMO was highly plausible)... Would this revolution have occurred regardless? Were the people already at breaking point, merely waiting for sth to light the fuel?
3. Wouldn't another Bolshevik just pick up the banner? Was Lenin really the only one who could organize the October Revolution?
4. WW1 dragged on for too long I guess :/
 
You would have to change a few things, less Alexandria influence for one.

Which got me thinking... Would eliminating Rasputin earlier in TL help in any way? I'm not sure if the "faith healer" was a conspiracy or not.

Give Nicky some backbone, during the war have him not assume supreme command in the figurative sense but defer to council more.

The romoanovs were seen as the apex of the issue between the burgious aristocracy and the common Russian. Have them care more for the people they rule and they will get better results.

Essentially, change Nicholas II's personality
 
The most obvious minimal change would be not to get into a war with Japan in 1905 or with Germany and Austria-Hungary in 1914.

The next most obvious minimal change would be to have a military much more capable of fighting and winning these wars, instead of the fairly mediocre military the Tsarist regime had.

The basic core function of a state is to be able to finance (it doesn't seem to matter much if its through internal revenue eg taxes, external revenue, loans, or plunder) and run an army and supporting bureaucracy capable of winning and fighting wars, at least enough to defend its own borders. States get into trouble if they can't do that. Weak states are best advised to curtail their foreign policy ambitions and concentrate on defending their borders.

Of the two most famous revolutions, the French revolution was triggered by the government being unable to secure even short term financing. Tsarist Russia got into a couple of major wars that they couldn't win, and then they actually got rid of one of their major source of revenue (the liquor monopoly).

Late nineteenth and early twentieth century Tsarist Russia was a weak state with an aggressive foreign policy. You can either strengthen the state or not have the aggressive foreign policy. A corrupt and inefficient despotism can actually last for centuries as long as the rulers don't try to accomplish anything ambitious.

This suggests that they could have been fine if they without the Great War (and Rasputin told them not to), though of course the shakiness of the regime in July 1914 was likely a good reason why they declared war on Austria-Hungary in the first place. The cabinet discussed the cost in domestic support being too high if they backed down and there were 1905 style strikes in July 1914. Trotsky wrote at the start of his history of the 1917 revolution that the Great War actually delayed the revolution. However even the unrest in 1914 was an echo of the 1905 events. Even if Trotsky was correct, without the war against Japan the government could have probably kept on keeping on until some later crisis.

As for making the state stronger, really just making a higher percentage of appointments in the bureaucracy and army on merit probably would have been enough. Growth of parliamentary institutions, which usually get the most attention, would have always lagged somewhat behind those in Germany, they would have done well just to keep pace with Japan. Probably more could have been done with finance though Tsarist Russian finance is not an area of expertise for me.
 
Rasputin wasn't actually the problem. The Tsarina was more than capable of screwing things up on her own, and most of Rasputin's advice was actually quite sound. He was the scapegoat. It was politically easier to mumble against Rasputin than against the Tsar and the Tsarina, who were the real problem. Rasputin's murder was significant since it showed that the imperial family could no longer protect their friends against their aristocracy.
 
Which got me thinking... Would eliminating Rasputin earlier in TL help in any way? I'm not sure if the "faith healer" was a conspiracy or not.



Essentially, change Nicholas II's personality
I'm not sure if getting rid of Rasputin would help, Alexandria wore the pants and was into the faith stuff pretty hardcore. She might just find another. as for changing Nikis personality he was quite worried about the czarvich, and other matters and not so much the Russian state, he was at most under the best of times a decent leader, but at the times needed the most, ineffectual and only reminisced through rose colored glasses and the tragic end to his rein and the Romanov dynasty, and well the next group in control wound up just as screwed up, only on a grander scale. Hell Stalin would make Ivan the III proud
 
I'd say the best bet at keeping the dynasty goin is either abdicatingto take care of his family before the war. And or learning from the Russo Japanese war and being prepared for a modern war.

Logistics hampered the Russians in the war. It's not that the Russians had lousy commanders, they simply didn't have the ability to move men and supplies and they also gave up the defensive side of the Russian game in favor of offense. Late 1914 was catastrophic for the Russians. Fix their start with taking east Prussia like they should have and you have the great early victory to build some pride on
 
Easy enough. OTL Stolypin was assassinated in 1911. Have assassin miss, and accidentally shot tzarina instead. Nicky gonna go mad with grief, and Stolypin will be able to run country unopposed for a while. Even if he gets dismissed later on, he will likely get replaced with someone at least decent, since tzarina will be absent to meddle. And boy, she meddled a lot.
 
Rasputin wasn't actually the problem. The Tsarina was more than capable of screwing things up on her own, and most of Rasputin's advice was actually quite sound. He was the scapegoat. It was politically easier to mumble against Rasputin than against the Tsar and the Tsarina, who were the real problem. Rasputin's murder was significant since it showed that the imperial family could no longer protect their friends against their aristocracy.
Thanks for clarifying. I had a complete erroneous understanding of Rasputin. It seems then according to you, Rasputin could have been credible if not for his superstitious nature.

Logistics hampered the Russians in the war. It's not that the Russians had lousy commanders, they simply didn't have the ability to move men and supplies and they also gave up the defensive side of the Russian game in favor of offense.
I do remember learning about Alexei Brusilov's skills on the field, so I don't doubt the commanders were ineffective. It really does seem like Nicholas II just was NOT fit to be Tsar at such a critical point in Russian history and he was WAY TOO gullible when it came to his wife's influence.

Easy enough. OTL Stolypin was assassinated in 1911. Have assassin miss, and accidentally shot tzarina instead. Nicky gonna go mad with grief, and Stolypin will be able to run country unopposed for a while. Even if he gets dismissed later on, he will likely get replaced with someone at least decent, since tzarina will be absent to meddle. And boy, she meddled a lot.
That sounds intriguing;) From googling Stolypin, it seems he had been a target for a while and even on his day of OTL assassination he was warned. Maybe he could heed to that warning and avoid the assassination attempt altogether?
 
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