AH fights Serbia over Bosnia 1908=no Balkan Wars?

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnian_crisis
During the Bosnian crisis AH military leadership pressed for war, but were stymied by Franz Ferdinand, who did not want to risk it. Had war occurred France signaled it wouldn't support Russia, who couldn't physically go to war after the revolution in 1905 and the Russo-Japanese war that had gutted the army.

Serbia would have lost the war badly and been turned into a puppet of AH, which would prevent WW1, but what about the Balkan wars? I am not as familiar with the military and political matters in that war and wanted to know if the absence of Serbia would prevent the 1st Balkan war from occurring. Assuming it did not, would Bulgaria and Greece be strong enough to take the Ottomans alone?
 
At the start of the Balkan Wars the Bulgarian military was quite formidable, as it was trained along the lines of the German Army, and well equipped. They did the bulk of the land fighting during the First Balkan War, and faced the most complete armies that the Turks were able the field. The Greeks mostly handled the naval side of the War, while the Serbs swooped in like a vulture to take out the dregs of the Turkish army in Kosovo. They provided some important support to the Bulgarians besieging Adrianople (especially artillery), but nothing that the Bulgarians probably could not have taken care of. The siege might have dragged on a bit longer, but the prospect of relief was remote.

Bulgaria only lost the Second Balkan War because it was weakened by its recent fight against the Ottomans, and was fighting two relatively intact opponents. Bulgaria could have done well enough on its own, and probably ended up with far more territorial gains, maybe even their San Stefano borders.

Without the Serbs I think the Greeks and Bulgarians would have been strong enough to defeat the Turks in Europe on their own, so long as no other great power intervened on their behalf. I think such a war would be likely, because Italy was quite likely to annex Libya for its own reasons, and once it did so, the weakness of the Turkish Empire was amply demonstrated.

In 1912 the Bulgarians had about a 600,000 man army in nine infantry divisions, and one cavalry division. Greeks could field 7 divisions of around 100,000 total.
 
I am not sure if Serbia wouldn't fight the Ottomans anyways. How are the chances that Vienna "allows" Belgrade to expand southwards as to placate the new puppet and to let the Serbians heal their hurt pride a little?
 
During the Bosnian crisis AH military leadership pressed for war, but were stymied by Franz Ferdinand, who did not want to risk it.

Not only by FF; the main factor was foreign minister Aehrenthal, who had Franz Joseph's ear - and not the slightest intention to start a war.
So, moving AH to war in 1908/09 would require a military coup - with the likely effect: Desintegration of the empire.
 
Bulgaria's Divisions had much larger manpower than her peers. Though, I believe the Greek force quote was something like "We can field 600,000 men. 200,000 in the Army, and our navy can prevent 400,000 Ottomans from landing."

I agree with Antipater that Bulgaria and Greece could probably of won the war by themselves.

In regards to Austria-Hungary any POD would have to affect them maybe killing off Aehrenthal (he died in 1912 OTL), and changing Franz Ferdinands opinion to support Conrad. I forget what book I read it in, but the Germans did ask Austria-Hungary to look for Balkan allies. Though Romania was the Germans first pick, they carried problems for Austria-Hungary. Where Bulgaria is really an ideal Austria-Hungary ally, since they have no competing land claims. Depending upon POD changes you could even have Austria-Hungary helping Bulgaria, though I am not sure how believable this would be. Lastly, one of Austria-Hungary’s Balkan goals had been looking for access out of the Adriatic, so with control of Serbia they could create a trade deal with Bulgaria and have an Aegean port access.

Austria-Hungary could also go the other way concerning a larger Bulgaria. They might view this increased Bulgaria nothing more than a more powerful puppet of Russian, and therefore be forced to come to an "understanding" with Italy about spheres of influence in the Balkans. This could lead to the strengthening of bonds between to historical enemies, which is what happened between France and England so it is not impossible as it might sound.

From an International perspective:
Italy - probably would not like this unless they can still get an Albania created. Otherwise, they would definitely feel they got screwed over.
Russia would have to support a larger Bulgaria, so they would be good.
It Austria-Hungary is friendly with Bulgaria then this would be a huge positive for them.
Germany does not gain any direct benefit, but if there is no Albania and Serbia is an Austria-Hungary puppet that would make all major Balkan states (Montenegro is the only exception) are ruled by Germans or married to them (Greece).
Britain could go either way, but the growing “German” influence in the area would definitely make them feel uneasy about the balance of power.
France – not sure about.
U.S. – we are isolationists at the time and probably care less.
 
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